Slow start to the financial week. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for holidays, it will be necessary to wait until tomorrow to find out the reactions to the new stimulus plan developed by Shinzo Abe. The most relevant notes are the relative weakness of the dollar (1,1865), in response to the slowdown in wage increases, which emerged on Friday from the US employment statistics, and the new slump in oil.
This morning Brent is trading at 49,3 dollars, Wti at 47,5 dollars. Goldman Sachs has revised its estimates for 2015 downwards: in the first half of the year crude oil will fluctuate around 40 dollars.
The attention of the markets is concentrated on Europe. There are ten to go before the ECB Board on Thursday 22 January from which the green light is expected for Quantitative Easing: 500 billion euros of securities with ratings between triple A and BBB- as anticipated by Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday 14th, the opinion of the Attorney General of the European Court of Justice on the legitimacy of the OMT plan approved in 2012 by the ECB should be announced. It will be a relevant test for Mario Draghi while waiting for Qe.
This morning, however, it will be necessary to observe the reaction of the Stock Exchanges after the Black Friday of the banks: the Eurostoxx Banks index lost 5,7% in a single session. For the week, the loss was 3,2%, the worst result since September 2013.
AFTER THE SANTANDER NEW INCREASES FOR THE BIG ARE IN THE AIR
The fall was caused by the market's reaction to the letters sent by the European Supervisory Authority to the 130 European institutions that have been subjected to the European Supervisory Mechanism since January: the groups have until Friday to express their observations on the new levels of capital required, generally well higher than that foreseen by Basel 3. According to Berenberg's analysts, moreover, the system of European banks lacks at least 230 billion.
The new parameters are, according to observers, the main reason for the capital increase of Banco de Santander for 7,5 billion, already carried out with an accelerated placement: the Spanish giant left 14% on the ground on Friday. Operators, according to the Financial Times, are now expecting similar operations from other big companies. Unicredit, Banca Raffeisen, Bnp Paribas and Société Générale, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are targeted. On Friday, the reaction from Piazza Affari was heavy: Unicredit -5,6%, Intesa -4%, Banco Popolare -7,7%, Ubi Banca -5,3% and Mediobanca -4,9%.
The most delicate case concerns Banca Monte Paschi (-8% in the last session of the week). The letter from the ECB refers to the need to reach a coreTier1 of 14,3% against the current 12,5% if the cleaning work is not completed. A difficult day is also announced for Carige: on Friday Consob announced that it had challenged the 2012 and 2013 financial statements, closed by the former president Giovanni Berneschi.
BOT, TODAY THE TREASURE POINTS TO NEW RECORDS
Treasury auctions resume today. 8 billion 12-month BOTs will be offered: on the gray market, on Friday afternoon, the new security traded at 0,245% at a new low. Tomorrow will be the turn of medium and long-term securities: three-year BTPs between 2,5 and 3 billion, seven-year BTPs between 2 and 2,5 billion and fifteen-year BTPs between 1 and 1,5 billion will be offered; The 1,88-year bond yielded 139% on Friday; the spread widened to XNUMX basis points.
ALCOA ACCOUNTS TONIGHT, THEN JP MORGAN AND GOLDMAN
Tonight, as per tradition, Alcoa's quarterly will kick off the accounting season for Corporate America. It will be the occasion for a long-awaited test, after the impact of the dollar increase on the balance sheets of US multinationals. During the week, the data of the big names in finance from JP Morgan to Goldman Sachs will be released. Meanwhile, Wall Street closed last week lower: S&P -0,7%, Dow Jones -0,5%. Eight of the ten most important sectors are down, starting with energy -3,6% (Chevron -3,9%). JP Morgan also fell sharply -5,5% among financials and Caterpillar industrials. On the contrary Merck stands out +9,4% among the pharma.
On the macro front, the sharp increase in employment (252 new jobs in December) was counterbalanced by the flat trend in wages: the next Fed meeting (28/29 January) should not reserve any surprises on the interest rate front.
MADRID LOST 6%, MILAN 3,3%
The European Stock Exchanges closed last week in the name of volatility, punctuated by tensions over the Greek electoral campaign, rumors about Qe and the ups and downs of oil. Market capitalization fell by 155 billion on Friday. During the week, the Eurostoxx 600 index lost 1,3%. For the Spanish Stock Exchange, the week closed with a loss of more than 6%. Close behind is Piazza Affari, down by 3,3%. Paris, under the shock of the Charlie Hebdo massacre, retreats by 1,2%. Frankfurt closed the week at +0,23%.
ENEL: IN 2015 OUT OF THE EAST
The decline in crude oil suggests a difficult start for energy stocks. Eni (-3,7%) closed the week with a new decrease to 13,62 euros. Saipem -3,5%. Enel under pressure (-5,5%) in the last session of the week after the downgrading of Exane to Underperform from Neutral. The Financial Times reports an interview with the CEO of the electricity group, Francesco Starace, in which the manager reiterates that during 2015 the subsidiaries in Romania and Slovakia will be sold with proceeds of around 4 billion. In this way the debt, currently 39 billion, will fall below the expected level (37,5 billion at the end of 2014). The business plan update is expected in March.
FCA, MARCHIONNE SHOW TODAY IN DETROIT
Sergio Marchionne will be the star of the opening day of the Detroit show today. The FCA CEO introduces himself after having achieved the goal of 4,7 million cars sold in 2014 (against 4,4 million). In the USA, Fiat Chrysler sold 300 more vehicles than the previous year. Much more modest growth in the main European markets (just under 30 pieces), inca lo (-100) in Brazil.
For 2015 the forecasts are very cautious: 4,8-4,9 million, pending the acceleration of 2016, to which the first models of the new Alfa will contribute. The focus in Detroit, meanwhile, will be Jeeps and Hummers, as well as Maserati.
GENERALI COMPLETE PURCHASE OF PPF
The closing of the purchase by Generali of 100% of PPF Holding, the company created by the Czech financier Pete Kellner, is expected during the week. The operation will involve an outlay of 1,3 billion which will add up to the amount (1,28 billion) already invested previously. From now on, Il Leone will be able to collect 100% of the benefits that will accrue in Eastern Europe, by now the company's fourth market with over 11 million customers and total premium income of approximately 3 billion and high profitability: the non-life sector records an uncombined ratio of 88,8%.
