Piazza Affari bringing up the rear, Wall Street up for the third consecutive month. Dollar (+2,6% against the euro) and oil (+3,8%, after +21% in April and +11% in March), setback for gold (-6% in the month ). This is how the financial markets closed the month of May which, after raising fears for the worst, ended without causing major damage.
The Italian Stock Exchange, once again thanks to the banking crisis, suffered a drop of 2,5% in the month, which reduces to a more modest -0,3% if we take into account the detachment of dividends. But the result remains the worst: Frankfurt archives May with a gain of 2,3%, in New York the S&P 500 rises by about 2%. Since the beginning of the year, the loss is 15%.
Even June, despite the optimism on the suffering front shown by Ignazio Visco in the Final Considerations of the Bank of Italy, promises to be problematic: the increase in Veneto Banca is proving to be a flop, threatening clouds are looming over the Banco Popolare operation, tension is rising between Unicredit shareholders.
JAPAN: THE VAT INCREASE CANCELED, IT WILL BE AGAIN IN 3 YEARS
Meanwhile, the markets are dealing with conflicting data from the real economy. Double reading in China for the PMI index, which signals the trend of business purchases: the official figure is 50,1 points, a breath above the boundary between growth and stagnation. But for the authoritative Caixin the bar stops at 49,2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is flat, still on the rise Shenzhen (+0,9%): expectations are growing for the possible entry of A-Shares shares in the Morgan Stanley Global index.
The data arriving from the rest of Asia is contradictory: the economy of South Korea is picking up speed, Taiwan is suffering. Japan, despite contracting (investments -4,2% in the first quarter) does better than expected. However, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (-0,5%) slips into the red after five days of bullishness. The yen rose slightly.
This morning, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made the most awaited announcement: the VAT increase, already planned for next April, will be postponed to October 2019.
US CONSUMPTION RISES. AMAZON SURPASSES FACEBOOK
The Wall Street session was also conditioned by the numerous incoming macro data. In the end, thanks to the slowdown in the energy sector (the sector index -0,56%), quotations veered downwards: S&P -0,4%, Dow Jones -0,7%. The Nasdaq was almost unchanged (-0,03%), supported by Apple. In the course of May, the Apple recovered 6,5% after the crash of the quarterly. Meanwhile, Amazon's capitalization (340,03 billion dollars) yesterday surpassed that of Facebook (339,95 million).
The spotlights are now focused on the numbers to be released between now and Friday, decisive for assessing the Fed's orientation: the ISM index which detects the trend in manufacturing activity, car sales in May and, even more, the hiring trend in the private sector (tomorrow) pending the overall data on the labor market (out on Friday). The probability of a rise in 2 weeks is expected by 24% of traders, minimum for 2 weeks. On the other hand, the probability of a move in the FOMC on July 50 remains above 27%.
The uncertainty about the strength of the recovery justifies the market's prudence. The strongest figure concerns the trend in consumption, which recorded the greatest growth since August 2009. The consumer confidence index prepared by the Conference Board, on the other hand, recorded a drop in May to 92,6 from 94,2 in April, the consensus was expecting an increase to 96,1. Two indicators on economic activity in the Dallas and Chicago area are also below expectations. Core inflation is stable (1,6%).
POLLS FOR BREXIT, STERLING GOES DOWN
A day marked by declines yesterday also for the major European lists, with trading volumes that continue to remain at low levels. The release of two polls that gave the supporters of Great Britain's exit from the EU contributed to stirring things up in the afternoon. The Brexit effect, in addition to depressing the pound (-1,1%) and to a lesser extent the euro, favored the rebound of government bonds in the "core" area. Paris closed at -0,5%, Frankfurt at -0,7% and London at -0,6%. The worst Stock Exchange, conditioned by sales in the banking sector, was Milan: -1,5%, the Ftse Mib index closed at 18.025 points.
TO BUND AND BTP THE OSCAR OF THE MONTH
Debt securities, the winning sector in May, did not move much; during the month the 1,2-year Bund gained 1%, the BTP also keeps pace (+10%). The progress of Greek government bonds was amazing thanks to the agreement with creditors (+0,3%). On the other hand, US Treasury bonds were slowing down: the expectation of a rate hike caused the XNUMX-year bond to lose XNUMX%.
THE SPECTRUM OF VENETO BANCA SCARES THE BANKS
The big sufferer of the Piazza Affari price list remains the credit sector. In reality, judging by the new losses of Deutsche Bank yesterday -2% (-29% since the beginning of the year) the malaise is general: the Eurostoxx Banks index drops more than 2%.
But the nightmare of capital increases looms over Piazza Affari, necessary to respond to the requests of the ECB. After the flop of Popolare di Vicenza, the market is now grappling with the equally disappointing outcome of the Veneto Banca operation; the market subscriptions to the operation (one billion) are practically nil, despite the issue price of 0,10 euro. Once again, as in Vicenza, the Atlante fund will have to come to the rescue, acquiring at least 75% of the capital. The rest, if all goes well, could be bought by the current shareholders, thus allowing the creation of a free float sufficient for admission to Piazza Affari. For now, however, uncertainty remains sovereign even on this point.
The specter of a new bankruptcy hangs over the fate of Banco Popolare (-7,3%), on the eve of the increase necessary before the merger with Popolare di Milano (-4,8%). Banca Veneto is the worst blue chip in 2016: -65%.
The rest of the sector is also in sharp decline. Monte Paschi yields 3,8%, despite CEO Fabrizio Viola having said that the Bank is evaluating non-binding offers to sell a package of non-performing loans for 200 million. Mediobanca also down (-2,8%), which also denied the purchase of Veneto Banca shares, as did Ubi (-4%). Even Intesa, which has transferred the burden of guaranteeing the increase of the bank of Montebelluna to the Atlante fund, leaves 3,2% on the table.
Meanwhile, Unicredit (-4%) is growing unease among international investors over the methods chosen for the search for Federico Ghizzoni's successor. Meanwhile Allianz has decided to change its representation on the Board: Helga Jung leaves, replaced by Sergio Balbinot. Manfred Bischoff also resigned "for personal reasons". "I am absolutely not a candidate for president," meanwhile said the economist Lucrezia Reichlin. The analysts of Equita Sim (chaired by Alessandro Profumo) have stated that a capital increase of at least 5 billion euro is the only realistic option to bring the bank's CET1 above 12%.
Among the many reductions, the Carige exception shines (+3%): the Board of Directors has prepared the guidelines of the new business plan to be presented today to the ECB.
AFTER THE SUMMER, THE OFFER OF 29,7% OF POSTE: VALUE 2,7 BILLION
Down All asset management companies down, especially Anima (-3,8%). Poste Italiane was also weak (-0,07%), which promises to be a formidable competitor for the banks in the race to collect investors' money. Yesterday, in fact, a decree of the Council of Ministers authorized the sale of the remaining 29,7% in the hands of the Treasury after the passage of 35% of the company to CDP. The shares will be offered on the Stock Exchange after the summer: collection expected between 2,7 billion (the current market value) and 3,2 billion.
WEAK BLUE CHIPS, S&P PROMOTES LUXOTTICA
The other blue chips are below par. Oil and utilities weak: Eni -1,1%, Saipem -1,6%, Enel -0,6%, A2A +0,1%. Among industrialists, Cnh Industrial rebounded (+1%). Fiat-Chrysler +0,1%. Leonardo (-1,2%) and StM (-1,5%) are down. S&P revised upwards the outlook on Luxottica (-1,42%) to 'positive' from 'stable' thanks to the "solid results achieved by the group in terms of cash generation". A/A-2 ratings confirmed.
RECORDATI GO SHOPPING. FLYWHEEL ISAGRO AND DIGITAL BROS.
The pocket multinationals of our country shine on the list. The Oscar undoubtedly goes to Recordati (+0,04%), one of the best stocks on Piazza Affari (+88% last year). The pharma company acquired control of Italchimica with a 130 million euro transaction financed entirely with company cash.
Digital Bros jumps up by 24% to 7,10 euros, the highest since January: 700 shares changed hands, the highest quantity in the last two years. The electronic gaming company announced the sale of the rights to Payday to Starbreeze AB and expects the deal to June 30, 2016 to generate higher consolidated revenues of €25,5 million as well as higher gross profit of €22,5 million .
Isagro is also flying (+7%). The company of agropharmaceuticals (both of chemical and biological origin), has announced that its biosolution ECODIAN SL has obtained authorization for marketing in Italy from the Ministry of Health.
