BANKS, RECOVERY TESTS AFTER THE MPS CYCLONE. TENSION ON BTPs, EXCHANGES WAITING FOR THE FED
Is the storm over Monte Paschi and Carige over? Or, despite the ban on short selling, the race to the bottom will continue after the stock crashes Ps -21,50% with volumes equal to 3 times the average and of Carige, down 17,91% with trades 4 times the average? Much will naturally depend on the speed with which the boards of the two institutes will be able to offer a convincing response to the requests made by the ECB.
In the meantime, however, it should be noted that the markets have inflicted an unjust punishment on the entire Italian credit system, which emerged from the European tests with excess capital of more than 25 billion. In parallel, Piazza Affari was the worst stock exchange, with a drop of 2,4%.
But, above all, that distrust of Italian finance has hit the most delicate front, i.e. the bond market. In the late afternoon, the spread between the BTP and the Bund rose to a maximum of 172,4 points (2,555-year yield at 2,5%) while the spread between the Spanish Bonos and the Bund narrowed. Today's auction of Ctz (5,5,5 billion) and, above all, the offer between 7,25 and 5 billion between Cct and Btp at 10 and 30 years on Thursday XNUMX therefore assume a particular value.
For the Ctz, the forecast is for a strong increase in yields in the 0,75% area from 0,385% last September, an increase that will favor the return of purchases.
WALL STREET STOP WAITING FOR THE FED. THE IFO IS HOLDING DOWN EUROPE
Silence, the Fed speaks. Awaiting the decisions of the monetary committee of the US central bank, which will be communicated tomorrow evening, the markets are marking time. On Wall Street, after a weak session, the Dow Jones closed at +0,17%, S&P -0,15%, Nasdaq -0,07%. Down 2,8% Twitter which then, with closed markets, released quarterly accounts that investors didn't like, to the point that the stock dropped more than 10% after the Stock Exchange. Flat performance this morning on Asian stock markets: Tokyo -0,2%, slight rebound in Hong Kong +0,2%.
According to forecasts, the Fed should take a "historic" decision: definitively end the QE purchases, which began in September 2012. The dollar is weak (1,2711 the cross with the euro) in the hope of a "soft" downturn by Janet Yellen. In Europe, however, the session was dominated not only by bank stress tests but also by the unexpected drop in the German Ifo: a rebound was expected, after six declines, which, however, did not happen. Paris -0,78%, London -0,39% and the Frankfurt Dax -0,92% thus close in the red.
BANKS, A DAY NOT. MEDIOBANCA SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING TODAY
The outcome of the stress tests slowed down the performance of the European banking sector against expectations. The Stoxx sector index closed with a drop of 1,7%. A report by Kpmg underlines that now the banks of the Old Continent will have to reduce the mass of 879 billion of non-performing loans which weigh on the recovery of credit activity.
The Italian banking system contributed more to the negative performance, starting with the failures of MPS and Carige. However, the promoted ones also closed in negative territory, starting from Where's Banca -5,15% penalized because it is seen as a possible unifying pole in Italy. The other popular ones are also bad: bpm -4,43% Bper -4,23%. It defends the Banco Popolare -1,79%, they also go down Understanding –3,14% e Unicredit -2,55%. The only exception is Valtellinese credit +2,32%. Spotlight turned on today on the assembly of Mediobanca –3,35%, which also passed the stress tests with ease.
SAD SAMBA FOR FCA, PIRELLI AND TELECOM
The São Paulo Stock Exchange collapsed after the victory of Dilma Rousseff who was confirmed at the helm of the country by winning, albeit narrowly, the runoff against the conservative Aecio Neves (more appreciated by foreign investors). The index fell 6% before a final rebound. Heavy sales on energy stocks. Leading the declines was state-owned oil company Petrobras, which lost up to 15%. Also the utilities Electrobras -11,5% and Cemig -12,4% are bad.
The difficult Brazilian economy, exacerbated by the end of the energy boom that had characterized the Lula presidency, was reflected in the securities of the most exposed Italian companies in the South American country. Pirelli falls back by 2,5%. Weak too Fiat Chrysler -1,8% on the eve of the London board of directors who will have to announce the new guidance for 2014 (conditioned by the slowdown in the carioca market). Down too Telecom Italy -1,9%.
ENI WEAK ON THE EVE OF ACCOUNTS. LANDSLIDE SAIPEM
A strong negative contribution to the index came from the drop in oil prices, after the drop in oil with Brent at 84,8 dollars a barrel (-1,4%), Wti at 79,9 dollars (-1,3%) . He misses out Eni -1,9%, on the eve of the quarterly. Banca Imi points out that "Exploration & Production, in the third quarter, is still suffering, with production not growing" but, above all, signals the price of oil "which travels around 8 dollars less than in the year last and affects quite a bit. As for the downstream, we report some small but still marginal improvements in Gas & Power due to the renegotiation of contracts”.
Sim therefore expects an adjusted net profit of 861 million, an adjusted ebit of 2,633 billion and a production of 1,58 million barrels per day. Banca Akros expects numbers to fall, at the bottom of the fork, pointing the finger to the fall in oil. Adjusted net profit is expected at 817 million and EBIT at 2,462 billion while production at 1,575 million barrels.
It gets much worse at Saipem -4,2%, despite the announcement of new contracts in Saudi Arabia and Latin America for 2 billion. The session was conditioned by the news in the wake of the news that the Milanese prosecutors investigating the company's alleged maxi-bribe in Algeria questioned ENI CEO Claudio Descalzi yesterday.
A2A, THE ONLY BLUE CHIPS ON THE RISE. DOWN ENEL
Few stocks have survived the bear's clutches: A2A +1,57% at 0,7745 euro, promoted by sell to buy by Citi, sales have hit Enel -1,4% and Enel Green Power -2,6%. Gtech +0,05%, which won a new contract from the Washington lottery, withstood the sell-off. Atlantia -0,06% almost unchanged
