“Over the last few months it has emerged that the strategy of Plan Team 23 and its founding pillars are no longer in line with the current vision of the Board. I have therefore decided to withdraw from the group at the end of my mandate in April 2021, to allow the new board to work out a future strategy". So Jean Pierre Mustier, at the end of a council that lasted just over an hour, he resigned from the leadership of Unicredit, which he assumed in June 2016. A rapid but announced crisis, given the distances between the strategic vision of the French banker and the majority of the board of the institute in Piazza Gae Aulenti: Mustier ("proud of what we have achieved and what we have achieved in such a short time", he explained last night) has always said he is against growth through acquisitions, suggesting a strategy to strengthen the institution through buybacks, together with the separation between the Italian and the German ones.
TITLE SETBACK, MPS FLY
On the contrary, faced with the expansion of Intesa Sanpaolo with the acquisition of Ubi and the risk of being reached by mergers between the former Popolari which Banca Bpm works, a desire for "Italianness" has grown in Unicredit which could soon materialize with the acquisition of Monte Paschi under the direction of the president Pier Carlo Padoan, as Treasury minister protagonist of the rescue of the Sienese institute. Or with other acquisitions in the wake of the banking "risiko" which is gaining new strength.
This morning the Unicredit share lost 6% after having sold 4,96% to Piazza Affari yesterday. Monte Paschi, on the contrary, advanced by 3,01%. The rest of the sector was weak, waiting for the big manoeuvres: Mediobanca -3,31%, Bper -1,3%, Banco Bpm with little movement (-0,30%). Intesa -1%, on which Kbw has raised the rating to outperform, with a target of 2,40 euros. Among the other institutions, Bper -1,3%. Creval loses 1,1 to 11,20 euros, well above the price of the takeover bid announced by Credit Agricole at 10,5 euros. The number one of Credit Agricole Italia Giampiero Maioli defined the offer on the Italian bank as "right".
FOR THE SUCCESSION FAVORITES MASSIAH AND NAGEL
In the new structures of the summit, which the appointments committee will begin to deal with tomorrow, the president in pectore Pier Carlo Padoan will be even stronger, who as Treasury minister in 2017 nationalized MPS by committing to the EU to sell it by 2021. Padoan will be to look for the new head of the future Unicredit. The clues point towards an Italian and the most accredited names now appear to be external Victor Massiah, former CEO of Ubi and Padoan's protégé since his university days in Rome, and Alberto Nagel, CEO of Delfin-powered Mediobanca (and recently confirmed until to 2023). Among the interiors, the most eligible seems to be Carlo Vivaldi, ex-aequo operating director of the group.
KOREA IN FULL BOOM, THE ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT IN CHINA
Beyond the Italian events, it should be noted that the gap is widening between Asia, which is rapidly accelerating and Western markets, which are slowing down after the sensational rally in November.
Asia Pacific stocks advance together. The Kospi index of Seoul leads the race (+1,7%). In the third quarter, South Korea's economy grew by 2,1%, more than the Bank of Korea had anticipated when the preliminary data was released (+1,9%). The consensus expected a confirmation of the percentage already published. In November, the IHS Markit index on manufacturing company expectations rose to its highest level since the beginning of 2011. Bloomberg economist Justin Jimenez expects a return of the minus sign for the last part of the year, but in 2021 there will be a very strong acceleration: from -1% in 2020 to +3,8%. Last week, the Bank of Korea improved its 2020 forecast from -1,3% to -1,1%.
The Shanghai and Shenzen index rose by 1,6%. The anticipatory data on the Chinese manufacturing industry released last night by Caixin are also very positive: the index on purchasing managers' expectations rose further to 54,9, a level never seen since the disclosure: the consensus expected a slight drop to 53,5 from 53,6.
Tokyo's Nikkei gains 1,2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,8%. The best stock exchange in Asia Pacific this morning is that of Kuala Lumpur (+2,7%).
THE FUTURE OF WALL STREET, MODERNA AND ZOOM BOOM UP
Wall Street futures rise after yesterday's step back. The Dow Jones closed November with an increase of 11,8%, the best month since 1987. Yesterday the list lost 0,91%, S&P -9,46%. NASDAQ -0,06%.
Moderna announced yesterday that it had requested the Food & Drug Administration for the emergency go-ahead for its vaccine. The stock jumped 20%, ending the month with a gain of 125%.
Crolla Nikola (-21%): GM withdrew from the agreement with the electric truck company that would like to compete with Tesla.
Joe Biden has named his economic team in which the female component excels: Janet Yellen leads the dream team (the definition is hers), together with Neera Tanden, former assistant to Hillary Clinton. Wally Adeyemo of the Obama Foundation is also on the field.
Zoom continued to grow in the third quarter, increasing revenues by more than 350% compared to the previous three months, for a total amount of 777 million dollars.
OIL FLAT: OPEC+ CAN'T REACH AGREEMENT
Brent oil unchanged at 47,6 dollars a barrel. The ministers of OPEC enlarged to Russia have decided to adjourn until Wednesday, having been unable yesterday to reach an agreement on the postponement of the planned production growth by three months. According to rumors, the United Arab Emirates, for decades a faithful ally of Saudi Arabia, are radically contesting the freezing proposal arrived from the two leading countries (Russia and Arabia): in recent days there has also been talk of the possibility of an exit of the emirs from the cartel.
Another scientific discovery promises to change our view of the world (and of ourselves). Researchers from Google's artificial intelligence division have announced that they are able to predict the 3D structure of a protein with absolute certainty, a discovery that will allow the mechanisms of tumor formation to be revealed over time.
ITALY SAYS YES TO THE MONTH, THE BANKING UNION IS APPROACHING
Yesterday at the Eurogroup, the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area, Italy's veto over the reform of the European Stability Mechanism fell. The agreement provides that the Mes will become the parachute of the Bank Resolution Fund (Srf) as of 2022, and not in 2024.
Eurozone governments and the European Central Bank may need to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus than initially estimated to counter the effects of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the suggestion of the IMF which hopes for "a further easing of the terms of the LTTRO operations and a cut in rates on deposits".
GOLDEN NOVEMBER FOR PRICE LISTS: MILAN +23%
Piazza Affari closed the month of November at 22060,98, down by 1,3%. For Milan, the +23% in November represents the best result on a monthly basis of the third millennium. The rest of the Eurozone was no less inspired in November: Eurostoxx +19%, Dax +16%, Ibex +26%. In the lead is Athens (+29,4%).
Yesterday, however, European stocks accelerated downwards in the final, following the opening of Wall Street. Frankfurt -0,34%; Paris -1,42%: the three main banks (SocGen, Crédit Agricole and Bnp Paribas) gained more than 40% in the month; Madrid -1,52%.
London dropped 1,65% at the start of the week that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called decisive for a Brexit deal. The parties have reached many points of contact, but remain divided on three issues: subsidies to companies, the primacy of the Court of Justice, access to English territorial waters by European fishing vessels.
IHS SWITCHES TO S&P GLOBAL FOR $44 BILLION
Attention is focused on what will probably be the most important acquisition of 2020. S&P Global (-1%), a US financial services company that issues ratings on sovereign and corporate debts, with a capitalization of 82 billion dollars, bought IHS Markit (+7,4%) for 44 billion dollars, amount paid in shares.
RECORD FOR BITCOIN, NEAR 20 THOUSAND DOLLARS
Historical record yesterday for Bitcoin, which rose to 19.850 dollars (16.542 euros) with a 170% increase since January. Given that December is traditionally the best month for cryptocurrencies, many are betting that the $20 threshold will be exceeded. Driving the rally was the stance of central banks from the spring onwards. But in November a sort of irrational exuberance took shape and infected many protagonists. Tom Fitzpatrick, strategist at Citigroup, is betting on a price of 100 dollars, before jumping to 318.000. But the most daring prediction was made by Tyler Winklevoss, an old acquaintance of the market, who speaks of 500 dollars.
INFLATION IS STILL DOWN IN ITALY AND GERMANY
The BTP closed the last session of the month in negative territory, but less than the German Bund. The Bund spread on the 10-year stretch is at 116 basis points, up from 115 on Friday. The 0,58-year rate stood at 0,56%, compared to XNUMX% at the start.
In anticipation of the ECB summit, pay attention to the inflation data in Germany (-0,7% year on year) and in Italy (-0,3%, seventh consecutive month of decline).
MORGAN STANLEY RAISES GENERALI'S TARGET
Generali -0,7%: Morgan Stanley raises the target price to 15 euros.
Azimut -0,7%: Goldman Sachs brings the target price to 20,3 euros. The same broker, on Fineco Bank, sets the new target price at 14,2 euros. Banca Generali rises (+1%), which should leave the Ftse Mib to make room for the Ima on the occasion of the quarterly review of the index.
Nexi +0,5%. Exane upgraded the rating to outperform.
FLY PIRELLI: FOR BANCA IMI IT'S BUY
In great fashion, among the industrialists, Pirelli, promoted by Banca Imi from "add" to "buy", with a target price of 5,4 euros. The broker writes that following the announcement of the vaccines "we are confident in the expectations for 2021 of a global production of cars growing by 13% and of a better trend for the group next year". Prysmian also on the shields (+2,8%).
NEW AGREEMENT FOR MAIRE (+1,25%). FLY GIGLIO GROUP
Oil companies are slowing down: Eni -3,2%. HSBC increases the target price to 9,3 euros. Tenaris -3,3%. Saipem -1,1%.
Maire Tecnimont advances (+1,25%) after the announcement that 500 million have been added to the Amur Gas Processing Plant project. "Positive news for the stock, because it allows Tecnimont to increase orders with the aim of recovering from the impact of Covid 19 on project development", observes Banca Imi.
Campari increased (+1,47%) after announcing that "the reduction of capital by reducing the nominal value of each ordinary share from 0,05 euro to 0,01 euro, approved by the extraordinary shareholders' meeting held on 18 September, has become effective". Giglio Group +8,4% driving the B2B e-commerce sector.
(Last update: 11.05 am on 1st December).
