Inflation continues to scare, as evidenced by the tension on gold prices, at 1873 dollars an ounce at their highest since January. But a little less, given that the rush of raw materials is slowing down: oil, in particular, suffered a setback yesterday on the wave of progress on the negotiations with Iran on nuclear power. This morning Brent trades just above 65 dollars, far from the highs of the beginning of the week. Other industrial commodities also mark a lull. Bloomberg's global commodity index moved little this morning, at 90,75: in the last three sessions, the drop is around 3,5%. The reasons? Partly the slowdown in purchases by China, determined not to favor a price bubble, partly the fact that operators - fearing that demand, albeit recovering, is not yet strong enough to support rising prices - are slowing purchases as it happens for wood in the USA. The result is less pressure on prices, which is very welcome at the weekend.
Asian stock markets are up. Tokyo's Nikkei index is up 0,4% this morning; the week closed in slight progress (+0,8%). The recovery in Taiwan continues (+1,8%), which has almost eliminated the crash of the beginning of the week. In Hong Kong (+2,4% since last Monday) the Asian edition of Basel Art opens today, a sign of a return to normality.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen indexes is down by 0,7% (+0,6% on the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,2% (+2,4% on the week), the BSE is up Sensex in Mumbai (+1%, +2,6% per week) despite the pressure of the pandemic.
The Nasdaq futures are slightly positive this morning, after yesterday's +1,8%. The S&P 500 index gained 1,06%, Dow Jones +0,55%.
New jobless claims were 444.000 last week, down 34.000 from the previous week.
Cisco -5%. The phone network equipment maker delivered better-than-expected quarterly results, but profitability expectations were disappointing.
Bitcoin is just above $40.000, down slightly. The squeeze from the US tax authorities could soon arrive: transfers in cryptocurrencies exceeding 10.000 dollars must be reported to the Internal Revenue Service, the American revenue agency.
Janet Yellen has scaled back the scope of global tax reform proposals: the US Treasury now proposes a minimum level of corporate profit taxation of 15%, six basis points less than the original plan.
LANE (ECB): THERE IS NO INFLATION, LET'S CONCENTRATE ON WORK
Philip Lane, chief economist of the ECB, spoke yesterday morning on the subject of inflation. “Much of what we're seeing – he said – is a reversal of what happened last year. The good news is that the global recovery is stronger than many people expected. We see that various sectors have been overly pessimistic, for example on the risk of semiconductor shortages. If there is an unexpected imbalance between supply and demand, this will lead to an increase in prices. But this is not inflation."
According to Lane, there is “almost no connection” between current global price increases and underlying inflation trends. “Neither in the United States nor in the Eurozone – she explained – there is the prospect of a very rapid recovery of the labor market. I simply do not see the world and the euro area in a context of persistent inflation”. The ECB estimates, concluded Lane, predict that "inflation will be 1,4% in 2023, therefore still well below the short-term target of below 2%".
CREDIT SUISSE RECOMMENDS ITALY AND SPAIN STOCKS
Credit Suisse, in research released yesterday, upgraded continental European equities to overweight, citing a robust recovery in the economic recovery, attractive valuations and excess liquidity.
“European GDP is 5,5% below its previous peak, while the United States has already returned to those levels. We now see potential recovery in Europe based on vaccine rollout (perhaps 70% of adult population already vaccinated by early September), positive impact of fiscal policies (2% of GDP), and excess savings ( 4,5% of GDP)," wrote Andrew Garthwaite in a note to clients.
Credit Suisse flagged Southern Europe, particularly Spain and Italy, as the areas of greatest recovery in GDP, thanks to exposure to the tourism sector and huge exposure to the banking sector. CS strategists also said they reduced the overweight in Germany.
BUSINESS PLACE RISES BY 0,9%, THE IMF PRAISES BERLIN
This diagnosis is reflected in the improvement in market moods: after three days of decline, the EuroStoxx 50 index rebounds and rises by 1,4%.
The Ftse Mib gains 0,9% to 24902 at the highs of the day.
The rise is just over half of the Frankfurt Dax (+1,7%). Germany has made "excellent use" of its spending power, with unprecedented support measures in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. This was stated, with a rare praise, by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Plus signs also for the other price lists: Amsterdam +1,5%, Paris +1,3%, Madrid +0,53% and London +1,01%.
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM RUNS, A CHURCH FOR ENGLISH TRAINS
Deutsche Telekom gained 2,51% after revising its medium-term earnings outlook upwards.
Easyjet drops 2,05% after warning that delays in communicating new rules have resulted in larger-than-expected mid-year losses.
THE SPREAD DOWN TO 111 POINTS
Definite acceleration on the Italian secondary in the second part of the afternoon. The spread with respect to the German paper drops to 111 basis points for the ten-year bond. The gap for the 30 year old falls to 160 points from 166.
The ten-year BTP closes at a yield of 1,01%, against -0,11% of the German bond.
In Germany, producer prices rose in April by 0,8% and 5,2% on a year-on-year basis, in line with estimates.
STM DOES SHOPPING IN NORWAY, RUNS FERRARI
Stm advances in Piazza Affari (+1,42%), driven by interest in Nordic Semiconductors, yesterday +9% on the Oslo Stock Exchange, specialized in wireless technologies for the IoT and market leader in Northern Europe for low Bluetooth connectivity energy. The company closed the last year with a turnover of 405 million dollars, an Ebitda of 76,8 million and an operating profit of 45,7 million. The deal would represent a major departure from the historical approach, which has so far only envisaged "small and targeted strategic acquisitions". The Italian-French joint venture could finance the operation without resorting to capital increases.
The other industrialists are also running, while Prime Minister Draghi anticipates in Parliament the acceleration of Italian growth in the second quarter. Ferrari advanced by 2,25%, preceded by Campari (+2,77%). Cnh Industrial recovers (+1,45%) after the slide on the eve, while Amplifon continues the march (+2,01%). Interpump +1,43%.
SUPPORTS BIS DISAPPOINTS THE BANKS. BPM ALSO IN RED
Credit stocks have paid off the slippage of tax incentives for bank mergers that are not expected in the Dl Sostegni bis presented by the Government. Among the banks, Banca Bpm also fell (-2,17%) after several brilliant sessions. Bper (-0,93%) and Mediobanca (-0,25%) also down. Against the trend Unicredit (+0,43%).
NEW CEO FOR ESSILUX: IT'S MILLERI, DEL VECCHIO'S MAN
Today the meeting of Essilux, the colossus with 140 employees born from the integration of Luxottica and the French Essilor, will vote on the new board, the expression of Leonardo Del Vecchio's Delfin, the first shareholder (at 32,2%) of the world leader in lenses and eyewear, based in France but with an Italian helmsman: Francesco Milleri, Del Vecchio's right-hand man, yesterday co-opted by the assembly of the Valoptec employee union (third shareholder with 4% of Essilux) where 90% of the participants voted to elect Milleri among the associates.
HOLIDAYS ARE COMING: PORTAL SARDINIA IS BOOMING
The utilities performed better: Hera +1,33%, Italgas +1,20%. Instead Telecom slows down (-0,20%) after the positive start in the wake of the quarterly.
In the oil sector, Tenaris -0,62%, Saipem -0,78% and Eni -0,16%.
Among the mid caps, Maire Tecnimont stands out (+1,55%), after the signing of an agreement for the development of a green hydrogen production plant via electrolysis in Italy. Portale Sardegna in light of Aim (+29,13%). The Integrae Sim share pushed, which raised the target price to 5,87 euros from 4,2, confirming the buy rating.
