The reference of today is missing Wall Street, stopped for vacation. It is not a handicap for the European markets, much more euphoric these days than their American cousins held back by the rigor of the Fed. And so, after the slowdown on Friday, the European markets are preparing to start again with a rise opening: futures of the EuroStoxx50 index rise by +0,4% and Piazza Affari opens with a gain of +0,15% with the Ftse Mib at 27.792.
The week starts in Asia Pacific with Stock Exchanges of China on the rise. CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists with a final leap up by 2,5%
Chinese blue chips climb 2,5%. Consumption is on the rise
Goldman Sachs strategist Kinger Lau writes that theMSCI China index it could be 24% above current levels at the end of the year. The main theme of the equity market will be the gradual transition from “reopening” to “recovery”, while the driver of potential earnings will progressively shift from multiple expansion to corporate profit growth,” added the strategist. “The growth of the Chinese economy is expected to be strongly oriented towards consumption, where the services sector is still significantly below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019”. .
The failure of the meeting between the two superpowers does not weigh much. The relationships between United States and China recorded a deterioration over the weekend: the meeting between the heads of diplomacy held at the Munich conference, ended without significant progress. US Secretary of State anthony blinken, in the press briefing accused Beijing of having a new study sending weapons to Russia.
Le Exchanges of Japan and South Korea they are around parity. Tokyo awaits the debut of the new president of the Boj, Katsuo Ueda. Tonight, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles and sent a warning to the United States, which will be engaged in military exercises with the Seoul navy over the next few days.
Slightly up the BSE sensex of Mumbai. Despite the collapse in prices, the prices of the Adani group are still considered excessive.
Piazza Affari restarts after 4 weeks Bull
European markets are preparing to celebrate the sad birthday of the war in Ukraine which began on February 24th a year ago.
To follow the bond market after the utterances of hawks and doves. The 2,43-year German Bund closed Friday at a yield of 2,47% yield (up from XNUMX% at the day before's close).
4,28-year BTP at XNUMX%. But the markets definitely liked the government turnaround on super incentives to home renovation linked to the new accounting rules on tax credits. Following these, Italy will have to revise upwards the deficit/GDP ratio of the previous two years. The MEF, by blocking the swirl of tax credits, therefore prevented this item from weighing down the public accounts in 2023.
Gas remains under 50 euros
Oil WTI it rebounds after four consecutive sessions of decline, to 76,5 dollars a barrel.
Il Natural gas EU remains below 50 euros per mWh this morning, at its lowest since December 2021.
Il dollar it is little moved at 1,0609 on its levels at the start of the year, having recovered more than 4% from its lows. The latest comments from the Fed have dampened enthusiasm for a rapid reversal in the cost of money in the US, bringing liquidity back to the greenback. Investors are currently pricing terminal rates at 5,50% for the Fed and 3,75% for the ECB, almost entirely ruling out the hypothesis of rate cuts for this year.
Tomorrow the PMI indices, Wednesday the minutes of the Fed
The first major macro event of the week is scheduled for tomorrow: the PMI manufacturing and services indices are released in both Europe and the United States.
- February European Consumer Confidence is released today, while data on German, French and US consumer confidence is expected on Friday. The Zew index of institutional investor confidence will arrive from Germany on Wednesday and the Ifo index on business confidence on Thursday.
- The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in January on Wednesday.
- The GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 is expected in the USA on Thursday, while on Friday it is the turn of Germany and France.
Black smoke for Tim, Enel sells in Argentina
Watch out for Unicredit. The bank will join the select elite of the EUROSTOXX 50 index from 27 February. Many institutional investors are adapting to the composition of one of the most representative indices in the euro area and it is probable that demand will still favor the Italian bank, which has seen a leap of +47% since the beginning of 2023.
Tim.The government has not given the go-ahead to a draft proposal by CDP for the Tim network asking for it to be reformulated so as to be approved by all the shareholders, starting with the French group Vivendi. Cdp could undertake to sell part of Tim's infrastructure as part of the offer it intends to launch together with Macquarie on the network.
Enel has signed agreements for the sale of shares in two thermoelectric generation companies in Argentina in Central Puerto for a total value of 102 million dollars.
Banco BPM has reached an agreement with the unions for a further 250 voluntary exits through the solidarity fund together with a series of measures on the welfare bonus, smart working and supplementary contract. The bank has committed to more than 100 hires, unions said on Saturday.
BPER Banca obtained the authorization from the ECB to calculate the profit for the year 2022 in capital for supervisory purposes and therefore proceeded to determine the definitive 'Ratios Phased In', with a Cet1 as at 31 December 2022 equal to 12,47 %.
Rating changes:
Mediobanca raises Moncler's target from 65 to 68 euros and strengthens the Outperform.
On Unipol Intesa cuts from Add to Hold target 2,40 eu.
