The storm that hit the majority after the decision to entrust the Genoa bridge to Autostrade has only partially subsided. Atlantia has convened a meeting of the board of directors for today, which will have to focus on the counter-moves to deal with the situation, further aggravated after the decision of the Constitutional Court which agreed with the government and the decision to exclude the company in 2018 with the Genoa Decree of the Benettons from the reconstruction of the Morandi Bridge. A summit is scheduled, again today, at the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure (MIT). And now the focus of investors is on the developments of a story that has been dragging on for almost two years between vetoes and counterwinds: revocation of the concession or reduction of the Benettons in the shareholding structure that opens the door to a compromise between Pd and M5S?
Also read: Genoa, the government surrenders: the bridge to Autostrade
At the moment, it is this second option that appears crucial and at the same time more feasible. The Atlantia share was penalized on the Stock Exchange on Wednesday and closed at -2,5%. Opening Thursday morning, the title sinks to 13,2 euros, a decrease of 7,35% penalized by the conundrum on the revocation or not of the concession which risks costing dearly to the company but also to the State. The downsizing of the Benettons is crucial and feasible, but certainly not simple.
Read also: Ponte Morandi, the Consulta: legitimate to exclude Autostrade
Atlantia is a listed company, half of the free float is in the hands of foreign investors, it is a showcase for Made in Italy on the markets and any move that concerns it must be evaluated so as not to burn value for the many, even small, shareholders. Also for this reason the solution of the Autostrade node, with Atlantia's step backwards, is closely linked to the negotiation on the concession. Atlantia fears the sale of its controlling stake (it owns 88% of Aspi) and has turned to the EU accusing the Conte government of violating contracts to obtain a sale at prices below market prices. But if so far there has been talk of a partial downsizing of the Benettons, the sentence of the Constitutional Court has reopened the game and a more substantial step backwards by Atlantia in Aspi would seem to be the junction through which an agreement can be passed which also entails a drop in tariffs and an investment commitment.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he was aiming for a decision by Friday. But who would be the buyer? The key interlocutor has always been F2i, the infrastructure fund of which Cdp, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit are the major shareholders with a 14% stake each. But Poste Vita would also be ready to enter with a token of 300-400 million. According to press rumors, there is also interest on the table from some Foundations and social security funds such as Cassa Forense (lawyers), Enpam (doctors), Inarcassa (architects) and Cassa Geometri. The CDP should also enter the restructuring directly, transforming the debt that Aspi owes the Cassa into equity. There was also talk of expressions of interest from the Australian fund Macquarie in search of good infrastructure investments and the bearer of a proposal also towards Open Fiber. Finally, it is worth mentioning the presence in Aspi of qualified shareholders such as Allianz, Edf and the Chinese Silk Road who may wish to strengthen their share at the right time.
