BOT AUCTION, FIRST TEST AFTER THE "ASCENT" OF MONTI. OBAMA, TRY TO AVOID THE FISCAL CLIFF. TOKYO FLY
Countdown in the US to attempt an agreement on the fiscal cliff. Launch of a very aggressive monetary and fiscal policy to fight the recession in Japan. It is a year end full of appointments for finance and politics. And Italy is no exception. In fact, this morning there will be the first impact with the markets after Mario Monti's "rise in politics". The Treasury auction, the penultimate one in 2012, will make the test more significant: this morning six-month BOTs will be offered for 8,5 billion plus 3,25 billion Ctz. Tomorrow, the last appointment: five-year BTPs for 3 billion plus ten-year BTPs for 2-3 billion will go to auction.
Yes to Brussels' direct and binding control over public spending in all eurozone countries. But, in return, Germany must collaborate in a policy that encourages development starting from the green light for Eurobonds. Pierluigi Bersani launches his European offensive with an interview in the Financial Times in which he opens up to the idea dear to Wolfgang Schaeuble, of a single guardian, already rejected by Mario Monti. The proposal comes with conditions that Berlin will almost certainly not accept. But it is nonetheless significant: the secretary of the Democratic Party wants to recover consensus on the front of the markets and the Eurozone, aligned in favor of Prime Minister Mario Monti.
AMERICA
Wall Street has reopened its doors in a semi-holiday climate in terms of trading, weighed down by the tug of war on the budget. In the Boxing Day session the indices marked: Dow Jones -0,19%, S&P -0,48%, Nasdaq -0,74%. The stocks of consumer goods (Coach accuses -3,2%) and luxury suffer. According to credit card data, American spending on Christmas grew by only 0,8%, the lowest figure since 2008. Good news from the front of the house. The Case/Shiller index reports that home prices rose 4% more than expected in October. Phoenix (+21,7% compared to a year ago) and Detroit +10% lead the recovery. New York bringing up the rear -1,4%.
Barack Obama returned to Washington ahead of schedule to attempt an extremis agreement on the tax cliff by New Years. Hopes for a definitive agreement are reduced to a flicker: the Republican speaker John Boehmer, after having given up on the opposition of his party companions to present plan B, seems too weak to be able to sign a binding agreement. On the other hand, a mini-pact (tax increases limited to taxpayers over $250 in income) is not excluded, which allows the abyss to be avoided while waiting for a definitive solution within a few months. But the remedy will still not prevent the agencies from proceeding towards cutting the rating of US government bonds.
ASIA
Shinzo Abe wastes no time. In the first press conference after being sworn in before Emperor Akihito, the new Japanese premier reiterated that one of the priorities is an aggressive monetary policy accompanied by incentives aimed at revitalizing the economy, including through the devaluation of the yen. The Tokyo Stock Exchange recorded a three-day rise (today +1,14%) going back to the highs of March 10, 2011, the day of the tsunami.
Hong Kong rises by 0,4%, the Shanghai stock market -0,1% allows itself a break after a three-day rally (+3,1%): building stocks take the sprint, because among the priorities of the new leadership includes a massive commitment to "urban development", starting with the infrastructure of the metropolis. From the lows of 3 December, the index has risen by 13%.
Toyota is about to close 2012 by regaining the title of leading car manufacturer. The house is starting to file 2012 with a +22% to 9,7 million, the best result since 2000. Thus Toyota is starting to snatch the title of sales champion from General Motors and Volkswagen, thanks above all to the increase in demand in the USA and Asia. But the Japanese company "celebrates" the news with a record fine, equal to 1,1 billion dollars, to avoid a class action by US consumers.
EUROPA
Last grain of 2012 for the Eurozone: the default risk of Cyprus, which will hand over the leadership of the Eurogroup held for the last six months at New Year's Eve. The island's government, in order to speed up the negotiations for the loan from Brussels, has addressed a request for 5 billion euros (similar to the figure under discussion with the EU) to Russia, But Moscow's deputy finance minister Sergej Storchak has declined the invitation: "Sorry - he declared - but a single country that assumed such a burden would face an enormous risk".
Few emotions, on Christmas Eve, in the stock exchanges that remained open: London up by just under a quarter of a point, as well as Paris and Madrid. Above par Amsterdam. The Stoxx 600 index was flat while, at sector level, auto, banks and raw materials moved close to parity. However, the Stoxx index is on its way to closing a positive year: +15%, the highest since August 2011. An exploit made possible by the excellent performance of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, up 30% since the beginning of the year.
ITALY
There are 48 hours left until the end of financial 2012. The Ftse/Mib index, driven by luxury but held back by TLCs and banks, is entering the final rush with an increase of 8,25% accumulated over the last ten trading days. The next two sessions will therefore determine whether Piazza Affari will be able, with a final push, to close the year with a double-digit increase or whether it will have to settle for closing a financial year with a plus sign in which I am not sure no shiver signals.
The palm of the year title shouldn't escape Azimut (+75,30%) except for a final exploit by Salvatore Ferragamo (+65,52%). The black shirt goes to AA -40,65%, given that the pre-election climate has awakened Mediaset -25,54% which in ten sessions has almost halved the losses accumulated in the last 12 months.
In the spotlight today the Atlantia stock, in view of the possible merger of Gemina with the leader of the Benettons in the world of infrastructure. With a blitz a few hours after his resignation, Prime Minister Mario Monti has in fact unblocked the provision which increases the fare paid to use the services at Fiumicino airport by 8,5 euros per passenger. It is now easier to proceed with the merger of Gemina (and therefore the Rome airports) with Atlantia, creating a competitor able to win new airports in Italy and in Europe.
