Bottlenecks can hold back even the giants. The two champions of the stars and stripes economy have experienced it: Apple and Amazon. Wall Street, incredulous, acknowledged last night that the Apple stock had missed consensus expectations in terms of earnings for the first time since 2016. For heaven's sake, revenues still report a 29% growth in the quarter. But, as Tim Cook himself confessed, the traffic jams and bottlenecks of the iPhone giant's complex logistics chain (38 billion in revenues out of a total of 83) resulted in losses of 6 billion dollars. And so, after the Stock Exchange, Apple shares (+2,6% in the afternoon) fell by 4%.
LOGISTICS STOPPES THE RACE OF THE GIANTS
The same fate for Amazon, which, due to the upward spiral of costs, has largely missed the target of estimated market profits. Not only. The CEO Andy Jassy anticipated that in the fourth quarter the company will have to face the increase in wages combined with the lack of personnel plus the surge in costs of maritime transport. And so the revenues of the Christmas season will not exceed 140 million dollars, 2 less than estimates. The market has taken note of this: -4% after the Stock Exchange, despite the fact that between July and September revenues, which rose by 15% to 110 billion dollars, were just below analysts' estimates.
SONY ALLIES WITH TAIWAN ON CHIPS
The setback of the two heavyweights had the effect of slowing down the race of the Asian lists this morning. Far more than the setback in US GDP in the third quarter (only +2% against +6,5% previously) which, combined with the drop in raw materials, reduced the urgency of raising rates. But, above all, it triggered the decline of the dollar against all major currencies, including the euro. The markets thus signal that they do not believe that the ECB will be able to sustain an ultra-expansionary monetary policy for long, while the tapering of the Fed is starting.
The Nasdaq futures (-0,6%) and the Eastern Stock Exchanges were weak. The Bloomberg APAC index is down 0,3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng loses 0,5%, Seoul's Kospi 0,7% (betters Samsung than Apple) and Sydney's S&P ASX 200 l '1,1%. The Nikkei (+0,3%) and the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists rose (+0,3%).
Sony yesterday confirmed the start of construction of a chip plant in Japan together with the Taiwanese TSMC.
META IS BORN, ZUCKERBERG SEEKS TO ESCAPE THE SIEGE
Yesterday evening, before Apple's announcements, the US market was up sharply: Dow Jones +0,58%, S&P +0,98%, Nasdaq +1,39%.
Mark Zuckerberg's empire changes its name. The holding will be called Meta and will aim to proceed with the creation of a virtual universe through augmented intelligence. Below will be Facebook, the social network under fire, WhatsApp and Instagram.
GAS GOES DOWN, OIL LITTLE MOVED
The weakness of commodities continues: the Bloomberg Commodity index lost 0,1% this morning, fourth consecutive day of decline. WTI oil is flat at $82,9. Yesterday the price of natural gas at the Dutch terminal fell by 11%. New York-traded natural gas futures are down 2% this morning.
The 1,60-year Treasury Note weakens to 1,55% yield, from XNUMX% yesterday.
THE ECB LIQUIDS THE PEPP, BUT IT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR THE MARKETS
Few surprises since directorate of the ECB. At least in appearance, because, if it was largely assumed that the Central Bank would keep interest rate policy unchanged, the words on the Pepp program surprised: Governor Lagarde confirmed that the program will end in March, but did not say if and how it will come replaced. The real question at this point is what kind of program will come after the Pepp. Lagarde hopes that Pepp's flexibility will continue to be a feature of future programmes, but it is not at all clear whether there is agreement on this point within the Institute's Council: the hawks (still strong in the presence of Jens Weidman in December) do not see gladly that, with the end of the most severe phase of the pandemic, the ECB must continue to be so active on the market. The doves, on the other hand, think that the recovery is still weak and that, therefore, we need a new tool to stimulate the economy. The crux concerns "inflation, inflation, inflation", repeated Lagarde three times: the ECB believes that the causes of the price increase (energy, supply chains and the effect of the VAT increase German) are destined to decrease in the coming months. Therefore, there is no need to plan rate hikes, while the market, judging by the prices, expects the turnaround at the end of 2022.
UNCERTAINTY WEIGHTS ON THE “PERIPHERALS”
How will it end? An answer will come at its December 16 meeting, when the ECB will publish the new macro forecasts (which will include 2024) and announce how the PEPP will be replaced. But yesterday's silence on the subject suggests that there are differences not only between the market and the ECB, but also within the Council: finding a compromise that can satisfy everyone will not be easy. “In the meantime – notes Pictet's Fabio Castaldi – the bond markets remain set on the downside, with amplified losses on peripheral government bonds (BTPs in the lead)”.
YIELDS ON BTPS SURPRISE, SPREAD TO 118
The hardest hit was the 1-year BTP, which rose by more than 14%, on its highs since the end of May: the daily increase of 10 basis points is the largest since April last year. At the close of the session, the 0,982-point BTP rose to 1%, after exceeding 118,16%. The gap with the Bund widens: the spread is at 10 points. In the medium and long-term auction, in which the new 2032-year BTP made its debut in June 3,75 assigned for 2020 billion, the Treasury in fact had to pay the maximum since August XNUMX on the ten-year tranche and the maximum since September last year on the title at five years.
MILAN RISES, SHELL AND VOLKSWAGEN HOLD THE PRICES BACK
Piazza Affari focuses on the quarterly results and closes with an increase of 0,31% at 26.890 basis points.
The Council of Ministers has approved the new Budget law. The total amount of the planned measures is 30 billion, of which 23,4 in deficit. "This is an expansive law, in full coherence with the other documents that guide government action," said the premier Mario Draghi during the presentation of the manoeuvre.
Weak Frankfurt (-0,09%). Consumer prices, according to preliminary data from the Destais statistical institute, rose by 0,5% in October compared to September, bringing inflation to +4,5% per year, the highest since 1993. Expectations were for a value of 4,4%. The harmonized figure shows a cyclical increase of 0,5% and a tendential increase of 4,6%.
Volkswagen fell 4,47% after it cut its forecast for auto deliveries and reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit on global chip shortages.
The other price lists contrasted: Amsterdam -0,38%; Paris +0,75%; Madrid +0,63%; London -0,07%.
Royal Dutch Shell -3,24% under pressure from Daniel Loeb's activist fund which calls for the creation of two companies (one green, the other for oil), after reporting earnings below expectations for the third quarter.
BUT THE ANHEUSER BEER IS CRAZY: +10,3%
The Food & Beverages sector is racing: Anheuser Bush Inbev, the largest beer producer in the world, is up 10,33% in Brussels after raising forecasts.
Airbus +1,82% on the back of the increase in 2021 financial targets.
EXOR SELLS PARTNER RE TO COVEA FOR 7,7 BILLION EUROS
Exor has booked a leading position in this morning's session. Yesterday the Agnelli holding company and Covéa signed a new memorandum of understanding according to which the French cooperative group, after consulting its company committees, will sign the definitive agreement to buy PartnerRe. The price is the one fixed before the breakup at the beginning of the Covid: 9 billion dollars (equal to 7,7 billion euros), to be paid in cash in mid-2022. The consideration is based on a value of the Partner's equity King of 7 billion dollars, which with the closure of the 2021 budget will be able to see adjustments. Not only that: the parties have agreed to extend the collaboration agreements signed in August 2020, when the thaw had begun. Exor will acquire Covéa's stake in Partner-Re-managed specialty reinsurance vehicles for $725 million, and the two companies will continue to invest in Exor-managed funds.
STELLANTIS DEFENDS THE TARGETS, FERRARI TOWARDS THE RECORD
Meanwhile, yesterday Stellantis closed in the red (-1,56%) after a session that was almost always on positive ground. The market has nonetheless appreciated in the quarterly the confirmation of the adjusted operating profit margin target of approximately 10% for the full year, against a decline in revenues for the quarter related to the chip crisis.
Ferrari (+2,26%) seems to be launched again towards a new historical record in view of the next quarterly (November 2nd).
STM IN RALLY AT AFRFARI SQUARE AND PARIS
As only happens to great champions, Stm (+6,41%) ended the day leading the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France, after beating the forecasts of analysts in Milan and Paris. The stock of the European semiconductor joint venture rises to its highest level since 2001 despite the negative impact of production shutdowns in Malaysia, which weigh on sales linked to the automotive sector. Strong global demand and customer engagement programs in Personal Electronics helped ensure revenue was in line with expectations.
DIASORIN RUNS AT THE TOP OF THE EUROPEAN SECTOR
Another flash of lightning illuminates Piazza Affari: Diasorin +4,7%, best stock on the European Stoxx Healthcare index, which is in turn well tuned with an increase of 0,6%. The increase coincided with the conclusion of the definitive acquisition of the American Luminex.
SAIPEM COLLAPSES AFTER THE FLOOR, NEXI FALLS AGAIN
Saipem leaves 10,98% on the ground after the presentation of the accounts and the strategic plan to 2025. The new CEO Francesco Caio said in front of analysts that it is the result "of past choices that we have to manage in a transition phase and of derisking. The market will then judge our action on the basis of the facts. We have indicated a path and the market will measure us along that path”.
In the wake, the other oil companies and utilities closed weakly: Eni -1%, Tenaris -2%, A2A -2,5% and Italgas -1,7%.
Deep red for the second consecutive day also for Nexi (-9,06%), which continued the declines of Wednesday (-6,64%) in the wake of the losses of the French competitor Worldline.
TIM AT THE MINIMUM, VIVENDI PUTS GUBITOSI IN THE SIGHT
No less sad is the situation of Telecom Italia (-5%), at its lowest for a year after the telephone group has again revised downwards the guidance for 2021 due to worsening domestic market conditions. After two useful alarms in four months, three industrial plans rejected and after the capitalization of the stock has halved over four years, Tim's CEO Luigi Gubitosi finds himself cornered. On Wednesday evening, sources close to the main shareholder of the telephone group, ie Vivendi (23,9% of Tim), said they were "disappointed by the results", but close "to the company and the Italian institutions". In this regard, Vivendi would have requested the convening of an extraordinary board of directors to run for cover.
FLY AMPLIPHONE. UNICREDIT AWARDED: "MPS IS CLOSED FOR US"
Amplifon runs (+3,34%), following the publication of the results for the last quarter. The stock ended up under the scrutiny of analysts: Equita Sim (rating hold and target price at 39 euros) reported its third quarter results in line with expectations, with organic growth led by the Americas.
Unicredit (+1,2%) was also highlighted, which improved its guidance on profits and revenues for 2021 after the better-than-expected third-quarter accounts, just over a month after the presentation of the new strategic plan, the first signed by CEO Andrea Orcel, on 9 December. “The third quarter results are clearly better than expected, mainly thanks to higher revenues and above all to a lower cost of risk”, comments Equita in the daily report. Speaking of Mps, Orcel was drastic: "The window that had opened for an agreement with Mps has now closed for us".
TECHNOGYM TRUMPS ON THE QUARTERLY
Gvs stands out (+8,7%), promoted to Buy by Goldman Sachs. Technogym thud (-5,52%): after the accounts, Banca Akros reduced the stock recommendation from neutral to reduced, with the target price dropping from 11 to 8 euros.
