Fasten your seatbelts, the trade war begins. "The United States is about to open fire on the world, including itself." Thus the Chinese Minister of Commerce, Gao Feng, commented on the official start of the war on duties: tomorrow at 12, Beijing time (5 in Italy), tariffs for 34 billion dollars will go into effect on Chinese imports. But, Feng points out, 20 billion (that is 59%) will hit products of multinationals, both American and European. It will only be the beginning if, as seems obvious, China reacts in real time. And so the markets, deprived of the reference of the US Stock Exchanges, stopped yesterday for Independence Day, interpret the general concern.
YUAN STILL AT LOWS, TONIGHT AND FED MINUTE
Contrasted with Chinese price lists. Weak Hong Kong (-1%), uncertain the index of Shanghai and Shenzhen, down by 0,9% despite a robust injection of liquidity by the Central Bank (700 billion yuan). Tokyo (-1%) and the Korean Kospi (-0,75%) were also in the red.
The dollar moved little in anticipation of the publication tonight of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed. The yuan has not recovered from its lows for 11 months, the yen trades at 110,365 (-0,1%). The euro changed hands at 1,1655.
TEHRAN THREATENS TO CLOSE THE STRAITS
Brent oil slipped to $77,69 this morning, down slightly after a two-session hike. But the focus is on the visit to Paris by Iranian president Rouhani, an extreme attempt to prevent Europeans from joining the US embargo. Tehran threatens to close the Strait of Ormuz if sanctions are applied. Experts doubt that Saudi Arabia will be able to increase crude oil extractions to two million barrels as promised.
Oil companies moved little yesterday in Piazza Affari: Eni -0,1%, Saipem -0,1%, Tenaris +0,3%.
EUROPE OFFERS EXCESS FOR US CARS
The European stock exchanges moved little yesterday, lacking the reference point of the US markets. The opening is seen slightly higher this morning. But the tariffs issue weighs heavily on the Old Continent too, starting with the threat of a 25% tariff on cars exported to the USA. In an attempt to avert the threat, EU President Jean-Claude Juncker will offer Washington tax exemptions for US cars in Europe. A solution that could help German cars, but to the detriment of cars from Italy and France, the hardest hit by the arrival of small cars from Detroit.
MILAN -0,36% BETWEEN REDUCED EXCHANGES
Milan (yesterday -0,36%) experienced a negative session, closing at 21.686 points after trades reduced to a flicker: 1,38 billion euros, well below the more than 2 billion of the last few days.
In red also London (-0,27%) and Frankfurt (-0,26%). Little moved Paris (+0,07%). Madrid closed up 1%.
BETTER THAN EXPECTED PMI DATA
Data on economic activity in the euro area were revised slightly upwards in June, but expectations about the future remain at their lowest levels since the end of 2016. The euro area composite PMI stood at 54,9 in June (estimated flash 54,8) from 54,1 in May, well above the level separating expansion from contraction.
Britain's services sector is accelerating, growing at its fastest pace since October, and this sign of economic strength could help push the Bank of England to raise rates next month.
PROMETHEIA LOWERED ITS ESTIMATIONS ON GDP
The growth of the Italian GDP in 2018 will not go beyond 1,2% due to the lower contribution of exports and the uncertainty on the economic measures indicated in the government programme. To say it is Prometeia, which thus lowers its estimate for this year's GDP compared to the 1,4% expected in March and +1,2% for the 2019 GDP.
After Greece, Spain and Turkey, Italy is the fourth OECD country where the labor market has the highest level of insecurity, ie the likelihood of losing one's job and remaining without income. There are two suggestions: develop an "early strategy" to favor rapid reintegration into work and improve the percentage of unemployed covered by the subsidy. Fewer than one in 2016 unemployed people received unemployment benefits in 10, one of the lowest rates in the EU, the report points out.
SPREAD TO 233. TODAY THE AUCTIONS OF FRANCE AND SPAIN
Colorless day for the BTPs, which closed a session lacking in ideas with slight progress also due to the closure of the US market.
The Btp/Bund spread fluctuated between 240 basis points at the start of the session and 233 in the early afternoon; the Italian 2,70-year rate fluctuated between 2,73% and XNUMX%.
Today the debt markets are back to life with auctions in France and Spain for a total amount of over 15 billion. Paris offers up to 9 billion OATs on 2028, 2031 and 2034 maturities, while Madrid offers up to 4,5 billion OATs for 2021, 2030 and 2041, plus one billion indexed bonds on November 2027.
In the evening the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. Tomorrow the most eagerly awaited statistic: data on the US labor market.
STOP ON MONCLER'S RAISES, CUCINELLI SHOULDER STRAP
On a less volatile day, the decline of the Luxury sector, victim of the clouds over globalization (including Chinese shopping), made headlines. In Italy, Moncler loses ground (-3,62%), the worst stock in the main list. Salvatore Ferragamo -1,6%. In Frankfurt the same fate for Hugo Boss (-3,4%).
Brunello Cucinelli plummets (-13,5%): Berenberg cut the recommendation to Hold from Buy, reducing the target price to 34 euros from 35 euros.
STM VICTIM OF THE CLASH BETWEEN USA AND CHINA
Another victim of the tariff war is Stm (-3,3%), back to January levels, almost completely eliminating the performance since the beginning of the year. The European sector index closed at -1,35%.
At the origin of the fall are the skirmishes between Beijing and Washington. In response to Donald Trump's veto on China Mobile's entry into the US, a Chinese court temporarily banned the sale of 26 types of chips from the American Micron Technology, justifying the measure with a probable infringement of the Taiwanese manufacturer's patents, United Microelectronics Corp.
RONALDO EFFECT ALSO IN THE BAG. EXOR GETTING READY
Juventus (+7,27%) is certainly one of the most followed stocks, driven upwards by possibility of signing Cristiano Ronaldo. The parallel decline of the parent company Exor (-2,02%) which will eventually have to organize the network of sponsors of the operation is symptomatic: Ferrari (-1,2%) and/or Jeep, the flagship brand of Fiat Chrysler (-0,76 %). Mediobanca Securities meanwhile confirmed the outperform recommendation and the target price of 22,7 euros for the Italian-American house after the US sales in June. For analysts, the next catalyst will be the results of the second quarter of 2018
THE WORLD CHAMPION HELPS MEDIASET
Far less sensational, on the media front, was the rebound of Mediaset (+0,97%), recovering after four sessions with a drop on the wave of record data (it seems sensational) for the World Cup.
Among the utilities, A2A (+1,1%) yesterday was the best in the list. Enel (-0,2%) completed the acquisition of 21% of the capital of a NewCo which owns Ufinet International, the leading fiber optic network operator in Latin America.
MAJOR MANEUVERS ON UNIPOL-BPER
Mediobanca advances in credit (+1,4%). Bank Bpm +0,8%. Finecobank +1,6%. B per Banca slows down (-0,1%).
Unipol recovers during the session: +1,18% after the initial losses. The company continues to purchase UnipolSai shares, gradually approaching 79% of the capital of the subsidiary in which it has concentrated all the insurance holdings. The market is evaluating a merger between Unipol and UnipolSai, a transaction which Cimbri has ruled out and which, in any case, will be subject to the sale of Unipol Banca. In this regard, investors are betting it will be married to Modena, after Unipol has risen to 15% of Bper, with the authorization of the ECB to reach up to 19,9%.
Trevi rises by 14,6%: the definition of the definitive offer by Bain Capital Credit is expected within days.
Longino & Cardenal's Aim starts with a bang, closing up 47,22%.
