The bad news, on the geopolitical front, never ends. The financial markets, already under stress from the threat of terrorism, experienced another day of high tension after the shooting down of the Russian jet over Turkish skies. But the barrage of price lists has held up for now thanks to the recovery of oil stocks (+2,4% for the oil sector on Wall Street) even if the classic signs of tension are multiplying: gold is close to 1.080 dollars an ounce (+0,4%). Shares of airlines and travel and tourism-related companies fell sharply.
The Asian openings confirm the moods of the operators. Tokyo marks a drop of 0,5%: the minutes of the last meeting confirm that the Central Bank does not intend to increase the stimulus to the economy. Also in the red are Hong Kong (-0,7%), Sydney and the other price lists in the region. The Chinese Stock Exchanges make their own story, moderately up.
OILS ON THE RISE. A REBOUNCE IS IN SIGHT AT THE OPENING
The boost from oil (Exxon +2%, Chevron +1,34%) allowed the American indices to close in positive territory: Dow Jones and S&P 500 +0,1%, Nasdaq +0,3%. In Piazza Affari Eni closed up 0,5%, Saipem -0,5%, Tenaris -0,2%. A moderate recovery is expected for European stock markets after yesterday's losses. Futures report: London +19 points to 6.296; the Cac 40 in Paris +8 points to 4828; Frankfurt +19 bps to 10.952. Jean-Claude Juncker's speech on terrorism in the European Parliament is scheduled for the morning. There is expectation for the French consumer confidence index.
MILAN -1,5%, THE RACE FOR BTP CONTINUES
It was the Old Continent that suffered the most negative effects of the crisis on NATO's southeastern border. Only the stability of Wall Street has allowed the stock exchanges to contain losses in the final. In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 1,5%, the Paris Stock Exchange lost 1,4%, Frankfurt -1,4%. Better Madrid -0,7% and London -0,4%. On the European Stock Exchanges, all the Stoxx indexes for the sector closed down, with the exception of Oil (+0,5%). The Micex index of the Moscow Stock Exchange closed down by 3,1%, the Istanbul Stock Exchange fell by 4,4%, the Turkish lira lost 0,8% against the dollar.
Risk aversion favors the inflow of capital into the bond market. The yield of the BTP fell below 1,50%, the spread falls below 100. Meanwhile, the two-year German Bund slips below -0,40%. Treasury auctions kick off this morning with the Ctz and the Bpei. Tomorrow it's the turn of the Bots at 6 months. On Friday, between 3,75 and 5,25 billion euros will be offered in CCTEUs and BTPs over five and 10 years.
FEAR (AND NOMURA) WEIGHT ON FERRAGAMO AND TOD'S
The heightening of geopolitical tensions triggered sell-offs in travel, tourism and luxury goods stocks. In Paris Lvmh fell by 5,2%, in London Burberry showed a decline of 3,5%. The simultaneous release of Nomura's report on sector stocks also weighed on Piazza Affari. Ferragamo lost ground, down 4,4%. Nomura's analysts cut the target price of the Florentine maison to 24 euros from the previous target of 27,8 euros, confirming the Neutral rating.
Tod's is also in negative territory (-3,6%). The Japanese broker has taken a position on theacquisition of Roger Vivier, a luxury brand bought by Tod's from its first partner, Diego Della Valle: the recommendation goes to Reduce da Neutral. Also for SocGen the stock is to be sold, with a confirmed Sell rating and a target price that drops to 73 euros from 75 euros.
Luxottica -3,4%, despite being rewarded by Nomura who decided to reiterate the Buy recommendation, adjusting the target price to 68 euros from 60 euros. Moncler -3,5% after hitting a low of 13,86 euros. Before the news of the downing of the Russian plane, Nomura had reiterated the Buy recommendation with a target of 18,50 euros. Cucinelli was also down (-3%). The travel sector is also under fire: Autogrill, which realizes half of its turnover with catering in American airports, has lost 3%.
WEAK BANKS. JP MORGAN PROMOTES GENERALS
Among financial stocks, the most consistent losses concerned asset management: Anima -3,6%, Mediolanum -2,9%, Azimut -3,1%. Banks were also weak despite Fitch's promotion of the sector. Unicredit fell by 1,4%, Intesa -1,2%, Monte Paschi -2,6%. Losses exceeding 2% also for Banca Pop. Milan -2,4% and Ubi -2,1%.
Generali drops by 1,5%. JP Morgan analysts raised the target price on the stock to 22 from 21 euros to reflect the new 2017 earnings forecasts. The recommendation remains overweight
PATUANO: TELECOM, NEVER SO GOOD FOR 10 YEARS
“The company is in its best shape in ten years. We have a target price of 1,50 euros, but some investment banks are offering me a convertible bond with a price set at 2 euros and at a rate of less than 1%," Marco Patuano, CEO of Telecom, said yesterday Italy, on the eve of the BoD dedicated to Vivendi's request for four directors on the Board despite the perplexities of the independents.
The president of Telecom Italia, Giuseppe Recchi, said that the share held by Vivendi (destined to fall with the conversion of savings to 13,7%) does not necessarily constitute a dominant position. On Monday evening, in a hearing in the Senate, Patuano declared that after the outcome of the political elections in Argentina, the company was confident of "managing to finalize the sale of Telecom Argentina".
A day of significant declines also for industrial stocks: Prysmian -3%, Cnh Industrial -3,9% and Finmeccanica -2,3%.
SMALL, ONLY CARRARO ADVANCES, PIAGGIO DOWN
Outside of the main basket, Carraro stood out (+2,7%). Piaggio (-3,7%), Recordati (-3,5%) and Safilo (-3%) are in negative territory. Letter also on Fincantieri (-1,97%): Banca Imi which reduced the share recommendation from add to hold, with the target price going from 0,82 to 0,44 euro.
