Stock markets are trembling awaiting the developments of the most dangerous crisis in recent years. Oil rises to over 70 dollars a barrel, gold trades this morning at 1.579 dollars an ounce, the highest since April 2013. Other safe-haven assets are also recovering: the 10-year US T bond trades at 1,769%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange, on reopening after the long fear of New Year's Eve, leaves 2% on the ground. The Chinese stock exchanges and Sydney are also weak (-0,4%).
IRAN DENUNCIATIONS THE NUCLEAR DEAL. TRUMP DOESN'T BACK
The markets are watching anxiously as an incendiary situation develops. Iran has officially withdrawn from the atomic accord, announcing the resumption of enriched uranium production, while the Baghdad Parliament has spoken out against the presence of foreign soldiers on the territory, a decision that affects the US and its allies (Italy including). Meanwhile, the Stock Exchanges are wondering how and when revenge will come for the killing of Qasem Soleimani. Trump threatens, in case of retaliation, the destruction of 52 Iranian historical sites.
In this context, the increase in oil prices is taken for granted, after the leap on Friday: Brent prices crossed the threshold of 70 dollars a barrel overnight (70,27 +2,4%), US crude 64,39, the highest since April. But the rise in the raw material did not prevent the decline of Aramco, the treasure trove of Saudi crude oil, which closed trading in Riyadh down 1,7%, to its lowest since the IPO, confirming the uncertainty that dominates in the region. The Kuwait index, just promoted by JP Morgan in the basket of emerging markets, fell by 4,1%.
ALL READY FOR SIGNATURE ON DUTIES, NEW LIQUIDITY FROM THE FED
The positive note comes from China. Beijing has confirmed that on the 13th a delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Liu He will leave for Washington for the signing of "phase one" of the trade negotiations.
The winds of war blowing through the Persian Gulf and Libya canceled the rally at the beginning of the year which seemed almost unstoppable until Friday's US blitz. However, the prospects for monetary policy remain expansive. Indeed, on Saturday evening Ben Bernanke underlined that the "central banks, despite the low rates, still have many arrows to their bow". The purchase of bonds on the market combined with the explicit and declared intention of keeping interest rates low can have, said Bernanke, former architect of Qe, the same effect as a 3-point cut in the cost of money. The "Helicopter Ben" message accompanied the Fed's new year-end liquidity injection.
The publication last Friday of the American ISM data reveals a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity, the most marked in 2009.
Data on employment will be released this week: the forecast is that in December there were 158 new hires and that unemployment will remain at 3,5%.
PMI SERVICES TODAY, VON DER LEYEN IN LONDON
Today, in the Eurozone, the PMI indices will be released together with data on producer prices. On the Brexit front, talks are looming in London between Boris Johnson and EU President Ursula von der Leyen, who is visiting Downing Street.
Among the appointments on the Italian agenda, starting tomorrow, the hearings in the Chamber on the bill to convert the "rescue" decree of Banca Popolare di Bari stand out.
ATLANTIA IN THE VIEWFINDER. MOODY'S CUTS RATING AGAIN
But at the center of the scene is the clash over motorway concessions starting from Aspi. The prospect of revocation prompted Moody's to cut, for the second time in a month, Atlantia's debt rating to Baa2, while the subsidiary Autostrade slipped, like Aeroporti i Roma, to Ba1, at junk level. The government is about to close the dossier on the collapse of the Morandi bridge and having reached "this stage of analysis it is clear that someone has made a mistake and has committed serious and unforgivable negligence", argues Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in an interview with la Repubblica, underlining that the decision on the possible revocation of the concession to Autostrade per l'Italia, controlled by Atlantia, rests with the entire government majority. “We are all involved in the political dimension of the final decision”.
FCA, JAGUAR COURTS MANLEY
Fiat Chrysler should also be followed. According to the Daily Telegraph, current CEO Mike Manley could decide to switch to Jaguar. The English house is looking for a new CEO, as Ralf Speth, the current manager, is ready to leave his place. Manley, protagonist of the success of Jeep, now downgraded to number two behind Carlos Tavares after the merger with PSA, could seize the opportunity.
THE FUTURE SHOWS IN LAS VEGAS
Among the events of the week, to follow the CES in Las Vegas, the most important trade fair in the world for consumer electronics and technology. The focus is on artificial intelligence, 5G, foldables, surveillance technology, 8K and robotics. But also the presence, disputed, of Ivanka Trump who will give a speech.
