While awaiting the start of the US quarterly season tomorrow and the US inflation data tonight, the stock markets are proceeding cautiously. And attention shifts to geopolitical tensions. There is an air of conflict over oil, but even more over the China Sea, the promised land of chips. And the effects can be seen on currencies.
China wakes up, the weakest stock market in recent sessions: the Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI index gains 0,5%.
CHINESE EXPORT +49%, NEW LIMITS FOR ANT GROUP
March trade data shows exports up 49% year-on-year, imports up 38,1% and the trade balance at $116,35 billion. China is to release more macroeconomic data on Friday, including QXNUMX GDP, industrial production and fixed asset investment data.
Beijing has reduced the range of action of Ant Group, Jack Ma's financial leverage. From now on, the App, which has 700 million users, will have to limit itself to financing online sales, but will no longer be able to provide consumer credit (three quarters of the business).
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbs 1,5%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gains 0,7%, South Korea's KOSPI rises 1%. Mumbai rebounded 0,7%.
TAIWAN CURRENCY AND THE RUBLE UNDER PRESSURE
Twenty-five Chinese Air Force aircraft, including 18 fighters and 4 nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone yesterday. This was announced by the island's defense ministry, underlining that it was the largest incursion reported so far. But the island's authorities are perhaps more concerned by the risk that the US Treasury will include the island's currency (a 2% slip to 28 dollars) in the list of manipulators, as anticipated by the Financial Times. A curious move, given the US commitment to defend Taiwan from Beijing's aims, but which probably serves to put pressure on the strategies of the chip sector, more strategic than ever for US industry.
It is not the only currency under pressure. The ruble's descent continues, down 5% since the beginning of March (-30% in 12 months), down on all currencies except the Turkish lira. The markets are thus preparing for the next, predictable, Western sanctions against Putin.
TESLA LEADER IN ENERGY STORAGE
Wall Street and European stock futures are virtually flat ahead of the open.
The American indices were modestly down yesterday: Dow Iones -0,16, S&P 500 -0,02%. The Nasdaq fell 0,37%. Tesla advances (+4%), rewarded by the Canacord report: the car manufacturer is destined to become a world leader in energy storage.
MICROSOFT BUYS NUANCE FOR 20 BILLION
Microsoft's big coup: for almost 20 billion dollars it was acquired Nuance, specialized in the field of the so-called "Conversational Artificial Intelligence", i.e. speech recognition for applications in healthcare, telecommunications, automotive and financial services.
Nvidia leap (+5,6%), which announced the production of a new generation chip capable of competing with Intel (-4%).
Brent oil and WTI up 0,5%. Gold down 0,2% to $1.729. US dollar almost unchanged at 1,189.
STOCK EXCHANGES FLAT IN EUROPE, BUT ECB PURCHASES SPEED UP
It was a session of moderate consolidation for European equities, back from a week of new records. It is no coincidence that the best place yesterday was Milan, ie the Stock Exchange which had done worse, closing the eighth with a slight retreat (-1,14%), after five consecutive increases. Operators concentrated on waiting for the next appointments: from the US Treasury auctions to the medium-long term ones of the Italian MEF, up to the balance sheets of the US banking giants on the way. In terms of macro data, we begin today with the Zew index for April, the first signal on the state of the economy in the Eurozone, and with the US CPI, a thermometer of inflationary trends. Then it will be the turn from tomorrow of the quarterly reports of the big American banks. Meanwhile, the ECB is keeping faith with its commitment to increase purchases on the market. Last week Frankfurt acquired bonds for 17,1 billion (against 10,6 billion). The aggregate data for March highlighted an increase in purchases of around 30% compared to the average for the first two months of the year.
BUSINESS PLACE +0,11%, THE BEST IN THE EUROZONE
Piazza Affari saves itself from sales in the first session of the week and closes up 0,11%, at 23.457.
Confindustria has revised its GDP growth estimates downwards to +4,1% on an annual basis, compared to the previous +4,8%, due to the weak trend in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 and after the drop in 8,9% of 2020.
PEACE VEOLIA/SUEZ, THE GIANT OF THE WATERS IS BORN
Paris loses 0,13%, even if the Veolia (+9,66%) and Suez (+7,73%) utilities are flying after the merger agreement which closed a bitter duel between the two Bigs; a sample of water and the ecological transformation of waste with 37 billion euro of revenues is born, which can also count on a share in A2a (+1,23% in Piazza Affari) and in Acea.
Frankfurt closes flat and remains in the record zone at 15.230 points. According to Refinitiv, the European quarterly season, which begins at the end of the month, will see an increase in first quarter earnings of around 47,4%.
AIRLINES: HSBC PUNISHES LOW COSTS, NORSE ATLANTIC IPO GOOD
Slightly down London (-0,37%), on the day of the first reopenings after three months of blockade and with people queuing since midnight in front of pubs for a pint in honor of Philip of Edinburgh.
Airlines Easyjet (-3,9%) and Ryanair (-2,7%) fell behind after HSBC downgraded the two stocks to Hold da Buy. Norwegian low-cost airline Norse Atlantic gained more than 4% in its stock market debut.
Amsterdam loses 0,84%, Madrid -0,39%.
TREASURY AUCTIONS TODAY, 0,72 YEAR AT XNUMX%
Government bonds in the Eurozone close at Friday's levels: Bund at -0,30%, Btp at 0,72%. In addition to the heavy offer of T bonds at US auctions (58 billion over three years, 38 over ten years), this morning's appointment with the medium and long-term auction in which the Treasury reopens maturities at 3 and at age 15, along with an off-the-run April 2026.
Judging from the secondary levels, compared to the -0,22% of the mid-March placement, the BTP of 15 April 2024 travels at a rate of -0,19% - on the levels of the mid-November auction - while the 15-year March 2037 pays 1,22%, from 0,992% of the placement via syndicate in early January.
DIASORIN SUPERSTAR, PURCHASE OF LUMINEX PROMOTED
In Piazza Affari it was Diasorin's day (+9,6%), the best blue chip of the session. The company announced yesterday that it has signed an agreement to acquire the American company Luminex Corporation for a cash price of $37 per share, equivalent to approximately $1,8 billion. During the conference call, the management reaffirmed the strategic value of the transaction, which aims to strengthen the positioning of the Italian group in the molecular diagnostics sector, strengthening the current offer and expanding its presence in the United States. The acquisition will also allow access to Luminex applications in the life sciences sector.
GOLDMAN SACHS AWARDS ASSET MANAGEMENT
Goldman Sachs has revised upwards the targets of the main stocks in the asset management sector. Azimut rises to 23,80 euros (Neutral). Banca Generali rises to 34,50 euros, remains Buy. Banca Mediolanum rises to 9,70 euros (Buy). FinecoBank rises to 15,60 euros, Neutral rating confirmed.
JP MORGAN OVER 5% IN INTESASANPAOLO
Among the banks, Bper +1,58%, Unicredit +0,95%. JP Morgan has a potential stake of 5,027% in Intesa Sanpaolo, of which 1,148% with voting rights and the remainder with long positions and securities lending contracts.
Among the industrials, Ferrari improved by 1,21% after Crif Ratings confirmed the long-term issuer rating at BBB+ and changed the outlook from stable to positive. Stellantis +0,93%.
LEONARDO -0,3%. THE MARKET DOES NOT BELIEVE IN THE TURKISH RETRIAL
Leonard -0,3%. Turkey has frozen the signing of a contract with the Italian group worth over 70 million euros for the purchase of 10 AW169 training helicopters following the recent statements by Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
Atlantic -0,8%. The offer for an 88% stake in Autostrade per l'Italia presented by the Spanish group Acs will be on the table of the board of directors in the next few days.
Campari -0,7%: Bernstein raises the target from 10 to 10,20 euros, with an Outperform rating.
WINDS OF WAR DO NOT EXCITER CRUDE. ENI -0,37%
The oil and oil services sector declined, following the drop in oil prices after the increase in geopolitical risks: Yemen's Houthi rebels have carried out new attacks on Saudi oil facilities, while Iran has accused Israel of having attacked the its main nuclear plant, causing a power blackout. Eni -0,37%, Saipem -0,13%, Tenaris -0,72%.
PIAGGIO SUPERSTAR: SALES START AGAIN IN ASIA AND EUROPE
Worth mentioning is Piaggio: +4% on the wave of the opinion of Intesa Sanpaolo which raised the share target from 3,6 to 4 euro, emphasizing "the recent strong trend in demand on the European and US two-wheeler markets, the expected double-digit growth rate in Asia Pacific, a rebound in the two-wheeler market in India to pre-Covid levels and the first positive signs in the market demand for light commercial vehicles in India”.
Iliad, which last week entered the capital of Unieuro with a 12% stake, said it can evaluate the purchase of further shares in the next six months, but does not aim for control.
On Aim, money on Ilpra (+12,94%), a company active in food packaging: Integrae Sim raised the target price to 5,4 euros from 3,6 euros, confirming the buy rating after the accounts.
