After China, it's up to the United States. The growth of industrial production in the US is still slowing down, as is manufacturing. The data recorded a decrease of 1,3% after the -0,1% of the previous month and is worse than analysts' expectations. But the slowdown does not depress the stock markets: on the contrary, technology is racing again on the eve of the big accounts, starting with Netflix. Meanwhile, good news for tech stocks: the drop in the dollar, especially in Asia, confirms that the markets don't believe in a tightening by the Fed, despite inflation remaining above the guard levels. On a day devoid of macro cues, this was enough to revive the stock markets after a cautious start. The Taurus mood is likely to be felt in Europe as early as the opening.
Meanwhile, the superpowers are challenging each other to the sound of innovations, a very hot topic after the surprise of the Chinese hypersonic missile. In the short term, the launch of the North Korean missile, dictator Kim's business card for the new Japanese premier, is more frightening.
A MISSILE FROM NORTH KOREA, BUT NIKKEI RISES
The Nikkei 225 is up 0,70% with South Korea's Kospi rising 0,65%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up 0,70%, with the more technology-focused CSI 300 rising 1,0%.
ALIBABA CHALLENGES AMAZON ON THE CLOUD WITH A SUPER CHIP
Alibaba gains 1,5% after the announcement of the introduction in its servers of a new super powerful and ultra-miniaturized chip, the Yitian 710, based on integrated circuits with a very large integration scale. With this industrial initiative, Jack Ma's company launches the challenge to Amazon Web Service, the market leader in the hyper-lucrative cloud services market.
APPLE REPLICATES WITH TURBO PCs
The US response is entrusted to Apple, which showed the press a new music speaker and a new family of high and very high performance laptops, equipped with in-house chips, no longer from Intel.
Also in great evidence Facebook (+3%) after the announcement of the goal of 10 hires is to develop the Metaverse (a sort of virtual reality shared via the Internet).
NASDAQ OK, THE INTEREST CURVE IS FLASHING
The Nasdaq did well (+0,84%), the Dow (+0,1%) and the S&P (+0,3%) were more cautious. The 1,58-year Treasury Note appreciates again to 1,61% yield, from 86% yesterday. The yield curve flattens even more: the spread between the five-year and the thirty-year bonds reaches a new low since April at XNUMX basis points.
The euro dollar appreciates at 1,164. Gold at 1.774 dollars an ounce, +0,4%. WTI oil flat at $82,4.
VISCO: EU RATES ON THE RISE AT THE END OF 22? I DON'T BELIEVE IT
Fears about the Chinese economic slowdown also negatively impacted the opening of the week on the European stock exchanges. Not surprisingly, given that, between 2013 and 2018, China accounted for 28% of world growth, or double that of the United States. Hence the concerns of major exporters, starting with Germany.
Meanwhile, the upward push in energy prices is not abating. Even the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, admits that the reasons behind the rise in inflation in the euro area, i.e. higher raw material prices and supply problems, despite being transitory in nature, could continue next year as well.
"I am still convinced that nature is transitory - he said - even if these pressures could last a few months, even next year". The governor of the Bank of Italy added that market expectations for an interest rate hike by the ECB at the end of 2022 "are not so in line" with the central bank's guidance, according to which rates will remain at low levels until inflation is seen as stable at 2%.
BTP DOWN, SPREAD RISES
The BTP closes down but above the day's lows, a heavy session that anticipates the expectations of a monetary tightening. Short maturities suffer above all, while the curve is flattening. The gap between Italy/Germany ten-year rates stands at 105 basis points from 103 at the final on Friday. The Italian 0,89-year rate trades at 0,95%, after a peak of 0,87%, the highest since May during the morning, from 0,16% at the last closing. German Bund -XNUMX%.
Although the ECB has reaffirmed its current line through Visco and Christine Lagarde, expectations on euro rates now see a first rise of ten basis points in November next year. Until a few days ago, they projected a tightening to the second quarter of 2023.
TOWARDS INCREASING SUPPLY, POSSIBLE A GREEN BTP
Long-term inflation expectations in the Eurozone rose to their highest level since November 2014, to 1,8834%, a level that remains, however, "well" below the ECB target. The Financial Times meanwhile, he wrote that the institute is thinking of increasing the amount of purchases of EU bonds.
Despite the launch of a new future BTP announced on Friday, IFR writes that the lack of regular auctions this week could offer the Treasury a good window for the reopening of the Green BTP or for a new dollar-denominated security.
THE COUPON DETERMINATION WEIGHTS IN MILAN (-0,83%)
Piazza Affari is the black jersey and loses 0,83%, closing at 26.268 points, weighed down by the coupon detachment of some big caps, which weighs on the index by 0,59%. The other European markets are also in red: Frankfurt -0,75%, Paris -0,81%, Madrid -0,66%, London -0,41%.
CHINESE SYNDROME FOR THE LUXURY BIG
The Chinese slowdown risks weighing on the fate of luxury in particular. The French stock exchange pays the consequences above all, in which the fashion houses of the sector account for 40%. Kering drops more than 2%, closely followed by LVMH, Hermés and L'Oréal, with losses exceeding 1%.
Also in Paris, the leap of biotech Valneva should be noted: + 35,42% after announcing positive results from an advanced stage study on its vaccine candidate against Covid-19.
Piazza Affari was conditioned by the ex-dividends: Banca Ifis 1,10 euro, Banca Mediolanum 0,753 euro, Generali 0,46 euro, Intesa 0,0996 euro, Marr 0,35 euro, Unipol 0,28 euro. Mediolanum (+0,5%) and Unipol (+0,8%) were well received.
FLY BPM, RENEWED THE CONFINDUSTRIA-INTESA AXIS
Banco Bpm +1,6% awaiting the new industrial plan and on the bets on its role in the M&A of the sector. Similar trend also for Bper (+1,58%). Intesa Sanpaolo +0,4%: the share has the greatest weight in the new Mib Esg index, launched yesterday by Borsa Italiana, with a percentage of over 10%. “The funds that have to track this index are interested in buying the shares of these companies on the basis of the weight they have,” underlines a trader. The agreement with Confindustria that will set up has also been renewed 150 billion euros available to Italian companies, in line with the Pnrr.
UNICREDIT DOWN: 7 BILLION ASKED FOR MPS
Penalized Unicredit, which sells 1% pending the outcome of the negotiations with the Treasury on Mps, with the times that could lengthen. According to two sources familiar with the dossier, the conditions set by UniCredit to the Treasury to acquire a large part of Mps require the State to recapitalize the Tuscan bank for more than 7 billion euros. The stock dropped 2,3%, just above the session lows.
Concern about a decline in Chinese luxury shopping is also being felt in Milan, both due to the economic difficulties and Xi's campaign against the super-rich. Moncler sells 1,9%, Cucinelli 1,8%. Down at Atlantia (-1,8%) and autogrills (-4,2%).
STELLANTIS -1,8%. CHIPS MISSING, MASERATI POSTPONES THE SUV
In other sectors, Prysmian did well (+1,28%), while Stellantis lost 1,82%. The semiconductor crisis forces the presentation of the Maserati Grecale to be postponed. The new SUV from the House of the Trident was to be launched on November 16, but the hunger for semiconductors, which are now arriving everywhere in fits and starts, has caused the launch to be postponed until spring. We talk about it in 2022 forwarded.
The company has entered into a memorandum of understanding with LG Energy Solution for the creation of a joint venture aimed at the production of lithium-ion batteries in North America.
LAPO RESIGNS FROM GARAGE
Three months after the operation that led Garage Italia to join forces with the Swiss Youngtimers, Lapo Elkann has resigned from his position as director and chairman of the board of directors due to "disagreement with the shareholders".
TAMBURI SUPERSTAR ENTERS THE LIMONTA
Salt Tip (+2,62%). Gianni Tamburi's company has gathered a shower of support after the purchase of 25% of Limonta, an industrial group that operates in the high-end textile sector and with a strong focus on sustainable products. Tip has invested 89 million. The project, which envisages aggregating a series of companies around Limonta to then list the group on the Stock Exchange, is appreciated by Equita: “It is a very interesting transaction for Tip/Asset Italia, both for quality that for the strategy of the target company, achieved at a very reasonable entry multiple”, concludes the broker, who confirms the buy with a target price of 11 euros. The buy recommendation was also confirmed by Banca Akros, with the target price remaining set at 12,3 euros.
Dovalue +4,3% after the announcement of the stipulation of a new servicing mandate in relation to the Frontier Portfolio, securitized by the National Bank of Greece. Equita raised the target price of the share by 2%, to 11,8 euros.
THE ESG INDEX IS BORN, A RECORD PLACEMENT FOR INTERMONTE
New all-time highs for Wiit (+8,3%) on expectations of iCloud developments. Worth noting is the launch of a new index: the MiB ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) dedicated to Italian blue-chip companies, designed to identify the large listed issuers that present the best ESG practices. A triumphant debut on the Aim is looming for Intermonte: demand at the placement price was approximately three times the amount. The price of the shares was set at 2,80 euros per share, with a consequent capitalization of the Company of approximately 101,3 million euros.
