All the stock lists opened on Easter Monday closed in positive territory, but calls for caution surfaced here and there this morning. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is rallying (+2%), with the big names in the Internet Economy standing out: Tencent Holdings gains 7%, Alibaba Health Information 5%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is down by about 1%, while the CSI 0,7 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stocks loses 300%: Bloomberg reports that the Central Bank of Beijing has invited the supervised banks to contain the increase of real estate loans, which rose abnormally in the first two months of 2021.
DOW NEW RECORD AND S&P, NASDAQ +1,7%
Futures on European stock exchanges signal strong gains: Frankfurt +1,2%, Eurostoxx +1%. The bull's push came yesterday from the United States, where the markets continue to break records: the Nasdaq rose by 1,7%. Dow Jones (+1,2%) and S&P 500 have reached new all-time highs.
ALPHABET ACQUIRED: WON'T HAVE TO PAY 9 BILLION TO ORACLE
Among the protagonists of the session also Alphabet, up 4% also due to the verdict of the Supreme Court which exonerates it from the accusations of having copied a piece of software inserted in Android from an independent developer (later bought by Oracle). Alphabet was at risk of having to pay up to nine billion dollars in damages.
On the bond market, the flow of sales that had been recorded in recent sessions came to a halt and the Treasury yield settled this morning at 1,6860%.
GREAT MANEUVERS ON OIL
The dollar is also slowing down, at 1,810 against the euro. This morning oil recovers positions after yesterday's slide: Brent at 62,91 dollars a barrel. Yesterday crude oil slipped (-4%), on expectations of a short-term lifting of the sanctions that curb Iran's exports: the nuclear talks between the signatory countries of the 2015 agreement, later torn up by the United States, they leave today for Vienna.
AND AMERICANS RETURN TO THE CINEMA
Among the various signs of a return to normality, the reopening of 90% of cinemas stands out. Warner Bros bet for the Easter weekend on the colossal "Godzilla against King Kong", grossing 32 million dollars between Saturday and Sunday, 48,5 million in five sittings. For 2021 Warner has decided to screen the films both in theaters and, simultaneously, via streaming.
However, the rally is supported by more robust "historical" signals coming from the American economy and politics.
NEARLY A MILLION NEW JOBS IN THE USA
The labor market has created 916 new jobs, two thirds of which are linked to activities (such as bars and restaurants) already frozen by the pandemic. Yesterday the US services index, the indicator that anticipates service sector activity, rose to 60,4 points in March, above consensus estimates and confirming the excellent state of health of the sector.
Tomorrow it will be up to the Beige Book to confirm the solidity of the economic recovery. The outlook of the Monetary Fund shows that the growth of the American GDP (+6,5% at the end of 2021) will exceed that of China (only +6%) for the first time since 2005.
STIMULI FOR 1.700 BILLION FOR FAMILIES
“The US recovery will be good news for Chinese workers, Dutch tugboat sailors and European farmers – attacks an article in The Washington Post – Thanks to government stimuli, families have accumulated 1.700 billion dollars which add up to the 18 trillion at their disposal, money that will end up in cars and PCs built in China, transported on the seas by cargo departing from Rotterdam. Or they will help German farmers, given that institutes such as the Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank have raised capital for them at less than 1% in the USA”.
YELLEN: A MINIMUM TAX FOR ALL COUNTRIES
On the eve of the G20 to be held in Rome (agenda focused on the fight against the pandemic), Janet Yellen launched a revolutionary proposal: a minimum tax to be applied in all countries "to multinationals to support innovation, growth and well-being". Yellen, Treasury minister and great US economic policy strategist, launched this proposal to the Chicago Council on Monday evening, reiterating that the 2.200 trillion dollar investment plan that will characterize the Biden presidency will be financed mainly with taxes.
The United States thus promises war on tax havens and asks for the collaboration of all partners. “We have recently seen – she said – that going it alone leads nowhere. America First it can not be America alone”. The goal is to share tax revenues with partners by eliminating the area of avoidance. However, many things remain to be understood. One in particular: if the US taxman intends to collect a 21% rate on the foreign profits of multinationals, what will be left for the countries where the profits are made?
THEOutlook of the Monetary Fund also deals with countries in difficulty. Out of the 120 debtor countries that this year will have to repay 1.100 billion to their creditors, as many as 72 risk not meeting their commitment. "At least 100 million people – said the president of the World Bank David Malpass – have fallen into extreme poverty this year".
The Monetary Fund proposes the issue of 650 billion special drawing rights to deal with the debt emergency.
TOMORROW THE G20, THE ECB MEETINGS THURSDAY
The agenda for the week includes the release of February unemployment data for the Eurozone today. Tomorrow the press conference will be held on the sidelines of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and governors. The last meeting of the ECB on monetary policy is scheduled for Thursday and on the same day the data on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. On Friday, German data on industrial production for February will be released and Istat will release data on retail trade.
