There is no time to celebrate. Now that he has overcome the obstacle of re-election, Barack Obama must concentrate all his energies on solving an accounting problem that threatens to send the 2013 accounts of the United States into the red. They call “fiscal cliff” (literally "fiscal cliff") and consists of the combined effect of two measures which - without a new law intervention - will automatically take effect in January.
The deadly combination is a traditional austerity recipe: tax increase (with the expiry of various tax bonuses) e spending cuts (welfare excluded). The inevitable recessive effects: GDP would drop by 0,5% next year and unemployment would return to over 9% (today it is at 7,9%).
In the face of this specter hovering over the White House, right after the election Moody's and Fitch have made things clear: if the new administration fails to defuse the bomb, the US will say goodbye to the much-vaunted triple A rating. The two rating agencies therefore threaten to follow the path indicated last year by Standard & Poor's, which first dared to demote Washington.
The main obstacle between the US and accounting salvation is of a political nature. Democrats and Republicans I agree on the need to reduce debt, but not on the times and tools to be used. In any case, recovery is necessary: the President must find a compromise on taxes and cuts, starting a gradual path that removes the pitfalls of the fiscal cliff.
The Republican "speaker" in the House, John Boehner, said he was willing to increase the levy. An opening that in all likelihood aims to cut some deductions (for example those on the interest on home loans), but certainly not to increase the rates for the richest. Exactly the opposite of what Obama would like. If a compromise is finally reached, next year the US will avoid a recession, but the deficit will grow by more than 500 billion compared to currently projected levels.
In political practice, the real problem is the fracture that since January 2011 has paralyzed the action of Congressdivided between the Democratic Senate and the Republican House. A stalemate confirmed by the latest consultations. A few hours after the victory, the days of negotiation begin for Obama.
