The markets are confidently preparing for a big Wednesday, in which it will be necessary to ride the waves of the Fed and those of the Bank of Japan. Investors are overwhelmingly convinced that the Fed will not raise rates, but they will be attentive to detect signs of a possible imminent rethinking of monetary policy from Janet Yellen's words and from the update of the economic data. In the meantime, between attacks and low blows, the electoral campaign is entering the crucial phase: on Monday there will be the first, highly anticipated TV confrontation between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
The forecast on the Bank of Japan meeting is much more uncertain. “I don't feel like ruling out any hypothesis – says Frederic Neumann of HSBC – Kuroda can decide to push rates even further down into negative territory, or stand still. He can reduce purchases on the market or conversely launch another bazooka. Common sense suggests that the BoJ will avoid causing further stress to the market”. But the anomalous wave could be lurking, in Tokyo as in Washington. In the meantime, the climate of expectation prevails on the markets.
TOKYO BE CAREFUL, JP MORGAN BRAKES APPLE
Prudent Tokyo, yesterday closed for the Day of respect for the elderly. The Nikkei index marks a rise of 0,2%. Instead, both Hong Kong and Sydney fell by 0,2%. Chinese stock markets are also weak.
Almost flat closing last night for US markets: Dow Jones -0,02%, S&P 500 -0,04%, Nasdaq -0,18%. Apple's run is slowed down: -1,17% to 113,58 dollars. JP Morgan analyst Rod Hall says the enthusiasm sparked by iPhone 7 pre-sales is premature. “We believe – he added – that 2016 will close with an increase in sales of 4%, in line with our forecast of 69,4 million pieces”.
Oil prices are on the rise. Brent crude rose 2,1% to $46,75 a barrel, after losing 4,6% last week. WTI American crude advanced by 2,6%, to 44,1 dollars. The increase is largely linked to production problems in Libya, but expectations are rising for the producers' meeting in Algiers next week.
Oil prices contrasted on Wall Street: Chevron +0,29%, Exxon -0,24%. The trend in Europe is much more lively. In Piazza Affari Eni closes with a gain of 1,5% on the day of detachment of the advance on the coupon. Saipem +1,3%, Tenaris +1,6%.
GM POWERS UP THE CAR, FIAT CHRYSLER SUPERSTAR
The car deserves a separate chapter. General Motors accelerated to +2,42% in closing (after having reached a maximum of +3,2% at 31,95 dollars) thanks to the agreement with the Canadian unions which prevented the start of the strikes. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, one of the most authoritative analysts in the auto sector, has improved the recommendation of the Detroit group to Overweight by Equal Weight, raising the target price from $29 to $37.
According to Jonas, revenues in 2017 and 2018 could be flat and this will likely positively surprise the market already resigned to declining sales after seven years of boom. The judgment had a driving effect on the entire sector, including Ford (+1,5%).
However, Fiat Chrysler (+3,5%) earned the most, best Automotive title of the day. Ferrari also did well, up 2,9%. The big Germans are also advancing: Daimler +1,8%. Pininfarina closed the first half of 2016 with a net profit of 21,8 million against a loss of 4,8 million in the same period a year ago, thanks to the agreement signed in May with the banks for the repayment of the debt.
MILAN +1,28%. STILL SALES AT DEUTSCHE BANK
After Black Friday, yesterday was a day with the wind in the sails for the European stock exchanges which closed the session on the rise. Milan, after reaching a maximum of 16.489 points, scored +1,28% at 16.399 points. The leading Stock Exchange was London (+1,52%), by a whisker ahead of Paris (+1,48%). Madrid (+0,98%) and Frankfurt (+0,98%) also performed well. As for today, futures signal a shaky start in the morning.
Closing in moderate rise for the Italian secondary, in a session with limited volumes. The yield differential between Italy and Germany on the 10-year segment is worth 130 basis points from 134 on Friday. The 2026-year June 1,32 rate trades at 1,34% (against XNUMX%).
Sales on Deutsche Bank once again prevail which, after eliminating the loss of the morning which had reached about three percentage points, is back down by 2,2% to 11,72 euros. It closed 8% down on Friday.
The Handelsblatt newspaper wonders whether the Bank has "enough capital to settle all legal proceedings". It is not excluded that the German government may find itself faced with the need to study a state aid mechanism in the 2017 election year.
UNICREDIT, SEVEN OFFERS FOR PIONEER
Yesterday was instead a day of recoveries in Piazza Affari for the banking sector, hit by strong sales on Friday. Unicredit closed the session with a rise of 4,3% on the day of the presentation of the offers for Pioneer. The stock could register a significant increase at the start: this morning Mediobanca improved its rating to Outperform, with a target price of 4,4 euros.
At least seven offers have arrived for the asset management company, but the Bank could give latecomers an extra day. The board of directors could begin taking stock of the dossier on 22 September, at the meeting scheduled in Monaco. The appointment will also serve to discuss the progress of the industrial plan that Mustier has promised the market by the end of the year. In addition to Pioneer, among the assets that could end up for sale are Fineco Bank and Bank Pekao, in relation to which negotiations are underway with the Pzu company, supported by the Polish government.
Monte Paschi marks a drop of 0,9% in the final. According to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, there are "the conditions for this capital increase to take place, and for it to be done as quickly as possible". Understanding +2,4%. Mediobanca +1,5%. Negative closing for Banco Popolare (-2,2%) and Ubi (-1,2). Pop Bank. Emilia gains 1,5%: Ubs has started hedging with a Buy recommendation.
FRANKLYN TEMPLETON AT 5% AZIMUTH
Exploits in Azimut's managed savings (+3%, to 13,37 euro). Franklin Templeton, a global investment company, rose to 5,01% of the company, a stake held in the context of discretionary asset management. Positive Unipol (+3,8%) and Generali (+1,7%).
BOFA PROMOTES FERRAGAMO. SWISS HOT FOR OVS
The flow of Asian and US tourists in Europe is decreasing, with a negative effect for the shopping capitals, report the data from Global Blue, which shows that purchases made by international tourists, who account for about a third of world sales in the luxury, fell again in August with the exception of the sharp rebound recorded in the UK. But Made in Italy defends itself.
“Within a struggling industry, we think Ferragamo's earnings growth (+2,42%) is under-reported by the market,” Bank of America wrote, adding that it had good expectations on the development of the handbags and accessories division under the management of the new to Eraldo Poletto (ex Furla). The rise of Ynap (+3,46%) and Moncler (+2,9%) was even more lively on the day of the share's entry into the Stoxx Europe 600 index.
Of note is Ovs (+6,57%), in strong dust after the announcement that the company, partner with 35% of the Sempione Retail consortium, has launched a tender offer on all shares of Charles Voegele at a price of 6,38 francs per share. The board of directors of the Swiss group has already backed the offer.
ATLANTIA ENTERS SAVE, STM RECOVERS THE COUPON
Atlantia (+2%, to 22,81 euro) signed an agreement with San Lazzaro Investments Spain (Amber fund) to purchase 21,3% of Save, the concessionaire for the management of the Venice and Treviso airport system.
Rebound by Mediaset (+3,39%), also supported by data on advertising sales for July. Telecom Italia closed down by 0,2%, Enel advanced by 1,4%.
Stm performed well (+3,1%), which fully recovered the ex-dividend. Buzzi rises by 1% to 18,08 euros: HSBC announced that it has raised the target price to 22 euros from the previous 20 euros. The judgment remains Buy
BIO-ON BOOM THANKS TO NANO DIAGNOSTICS
Retelit gained 3,73% after switching to the Star on 26 September. El.En (+5,23%) updated the all-time high to 15,81 euro, after the publication of the quarterly data.
Bio-On +12,89%: the company has announced that for the first time it is possible to use bioplastic for the diagnosis and treatment of tumors thanks to its patent in the field of nano-diagnostics (nano-imaging).
