After Syria, will it be North Korea's turn? The financial week opens with a heavy geopolitical mortgage. Uncertainty on the markets is advancing as the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson approaches its target and Pyongyang's military rhetoric grows louder. International tensions support the price of oil, with Brent (+0,1 to 55,27 dollars) consolidating previous gains: 9 of the last 10 sessions have closed up for an overall gain of abundant 8%. The dollar also rose, yes all Asian currencies, including the yen -0,1%. The won, the currency of South Korea loses 0,7%, the Stock Exchange +1%. Stock markets were also weak, from Seoul to Hong Kong -0,5%. However, the rise of the dollar favors Tokyo +0,7%. Sydney recovers +0,5% on the wave of the recovery of commodities.
However, the positive outcome of Xi Jingping's visit to the USA acts as a counterweight to the winds of war. The Chinese president has offered Washington concessions for US finance and on the import of American meat into China, a gesture that is more relevant from a political point of view than from a business point of view which has made it possible to not break the thread of dialogue. The two Bigs have given themselves one hundred days to finalize a possible commercial agreement.
Donald Trump's leadership thus emerges strengthened by the events of recent days, despite the disappointing increase in jobs in March (only 98 new jobs against the 180 expected). In the meantime, Wall Street is preparing to face a restrictive monetary policy after eight years of expansion.
However, the Easter week marks the start of the quarterly season from which the market expects such brilliant results as to justify the current prices, pushed upwards by Trump's promises.
US QUARTERLY. JP MORGAN OPENS THE SEASON
– The first to give the numbers will, as usual, be Alcoa, the aluminum giant. But the "first" of the budget season is scheduled for Thursday with the accounts of the big banks: JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Analysts' estimates are based on optimism. The profits of the financials sector should mark an average progress of 15,4%, second only to the results of the energy sector. According to forecasts, securities listed on the US stock exchanges should record an average increase in profits of 10,1% for the first time in three years in double figures (6,1% if the energy sector is not considered).
– Exceptional meeting for monetary policy. Janet Yellen will answer questions from the audience and tweeted at a meeting at the University of Michigan tonight. It will be an opportunity to get some more information on the Fed's breakthrough that emerged from the minutes of the last meeting of the monetary committee: the start by the end of the year of the reduction of the central bank's balance sheet, inflated up to 4.50 billion by purchases during the crisis years .
– William Dudley of the New York Fed said the Fed could avoid raising interest rates at the same time as it begins the process of downsizing its bond portfolio.
– Interest rate decisions are expected this week from the central banks of Argentina, Brazil and Canada.
EU GREEN LIGHT TO PADOAN. TOMORROW THE APPROVAL OF THE DEF
– Decisive days also for our public finances.
– At the Malta Eurogroup, Italy obtained the European go-ahead for the corrective maneuver which will be presented to the Council of Ministers tomorrow. Carlo Padoan, in exchange for the assent of the Vice-President of the Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis, guaranteed that the structural correction for next year will be equal to 0,6% of GDP, without requesting further discounts.
– Industrial production data will be published today,
TOMORROW THE BOT AUCTION, ARRIVAL OF 10 BILLION BTP
In this context, the Treasury's mid-month auctions kick off. We start tomorrow with the offer of 6 billion bots per year. On Wednesday, the Treasury will place between 8 and 10 billion euros of BTPs at 3, 7 and 20 years, together with a 15-year no longer being issued. In particular:
The new 3-year benchmark 15 June 2020 – at auction for 4-4,5 billion – detaches a coupon of 0,35%, richer by 0,05% on the current reference security 15 October 2019.
The third tranche of the 7-year 15 May 2024 coupon 1,85% will be offered for an amount between 2 and 2,5 billion. The eighth tranche of the twenty-year 1 September 2036, coupon 2,25%, will have an amount between 1,5 and 2 billion.
The off-the-run security 1 March 2030, coupon 3,50%, a 15-year bond with a residual maturity of 13, will instead be made available for an amount between 500 million and 1 billion euros.
Last week, government bond yields fell: that of the ten-year BTP fell to 2,19% from 2,30% the previous Friday. Bund yield down 0,22% from 0,32%.
On the macro front, the most important European appointment of the week is represented by the inflation data of the main EU countries, to be released next Thursday.
SHAREHOLDERS' MEETINGS: MPS, ENI, FRIDAY FCA, FERRARI AND CNH
Short but intense week for the Stock Exchanges: the European lists, including Piazza Affari, and Wall Street will remain closed on Friday 14th.
However, there will be important corporate events:
The assembly of Monte Paschi will be held on Wednesday 12th.
Thursday 13 will be the turn of the Eni assembly.
The anniversary of Good Friday, the 14th, will coincide with the meetings of the shareholders of Fiat Chrysler, CNH and Ferrari.
SAMANTHA CRISTOFORETTI BLESSES THE DEBUT OF AVIO
Samantha Cristoforetti, the first Italian woman in space, will act as godmother at Avio's debut ceremony in the Star segment of Borsa Italiana, scheduled for this morning in Piazza Affari.
The Italian Space Group. Which has just created the first solid propulsion engine in carbon fiber, presents itself as a public company married to the Italian Space Agency. In fact, the company merges today with the Space 2 SPAC (Secial Purpose Acquisition Company) promoted by Sergio Erede together with Gianni Mion and other shareholders already listed on MIV, the market for institutional investors. The company (292 million in revenues +14% and 24 million in investments) will have among the shareholders Leonardo at 25%, the promoters of the Spac at 3% and the managers at 4%.
UBI, BPER AND BPM: THE FUNDS REWARD THE TOP MANAGEMENT
With the weekend meetings, the shareholding structure of the former Popolari took shape.
Ubi approved on Friday the launch of the capital increase for 400 million linked to the acquisition of the three good banks. Among the shareholders, the Silchester fund is in first place, followed by the Cassa di Cuneo foundation. The 2016 financial year closed with a loss of 830 million (linked to balance sheet cleaning) but with the distribution of a unit dividend of 0,11 euro. The CEO Victor Massiah underlined that, finally, the flow of new non-performing loans is being reduced, today lower than the pre-crisis figures.
In Novara the meeting of Banco Bpm, the first after the transformation into a joint stock company, gave the green light to the 2016 budget on Saturday with the favorable vote of over 99% of the 34,65% of the capital represented. “We want to rule out any possibility of a capital increase”, underlined Castagna, explaining that “we have a series of maneuvers in place on our product companies which will allow us to free up resources and strengthen tier 1”.
70% of the capital is in the hands of investment funds, mostly international. But the shareholder register includes industrialists such as Veronesi (Calzedonna), Brunello Cucinelli and Oscar Farinetti (Eataly).
Assembly also for Bper. Some investment funds, such as Amber, Blackrock and Wellington voted in favor of the list presented by the outgoing top management and not for that of Assogestioni, thus favoring the reappointment of CEO Alessandro Vandelli.
MILAN STARTS AGAIN FROM -0,9%, STM AT THE TOP
European stock exchanges showed little movement in the first week of April, after the robust increases in March. In five sessions, the FtseMib index of Piazza Affari fell by 0,9%, after closing today's session unchanged. The performances of the Paris and Frankfurt stock exchanges are more or less similar.
The most bought stock was Stm +2,4% ahead of Leonardo +1,2%, FCA -3,7% and Generali -3,6% in sharp decline.
