While one still wonders if Clinton's defeat was caused more by Obama's mistakes in his mandate, by the scandals that involved her during a long political career of lights and shadows or by the indelible signs of the global crisis left to mark the US-made middle class, the markets and investors are rapidly repositioning themselves on the Trump variable.
"trumpflation”: here is one of the new words that connote the politics of the 45th American President: a mix of policies that awaken Keynes from the hypnosis of globalization, as well as the prices of the pharmaceutical sector after the blows suffered by Clinton's threats which have triggered widespread declines.
in emerging countries widespread sales of bonds and shares have poured out for fear of the penalizing protectionist measures promised on several occasions by Trump, which will have effects not only on Mexico but also on other economies: those of Argentina, Turkey, Ukraine and South Africa in the lead.
And while only i Brics appear to be limiting the damage, led by the rebound of the Chinese stock market, supported by forecasts of further weakness on the yuan, it seems clear that commodities they could contain the effects of capital flight from riskier markets if they find new ideas from the infrastructure plans that Trump will launch to strengthen the US macroeconomic context.
This will also imply a contraction of remittances that from immigrants in the USA go to emerging countries and also of direct investment flows (FDI) which for many countries are fundamental for financing the current account deficit. Certainly then the strengthening of the dollar The US that will continue is another of the elements that will produce a direct transmission effect on this sector.
Il XNUMX-year US government bond he thus sees yields rise to the highest since January, at 2,15%, with a possible target of 2,5%. While the Vix volatility index plummeted, setting aside the peaks that characterized an electoral campaign to the ok corral.
If the US elections don't change the outlook of the economy of Eurozone countries, certainly put pressure on the ECB, which is expected to extend the Quantitative easing for at least another six months beyond the March 2017 deadline. The need to protect peripheral countries from the turbulence expected from the fiscal and inflationary maneuvers of the Trump presidency and to maintain price stability, as was done after the outcome of the Brexit referendum, will once again see Mario Draghi on the shields.
And in a year of electoral rounds crucial for France (presidential elections at the end of 2017 and general elections in June), the Netherlands (March 2017 general elections), and Germany (September 2017 federal elections), the action of the ECB will remain fundamental.
Yellen's tenure as head of the Fed it will expire in 2018 and it will be important for the next President never to question the absolute independence of the Fed so as not to be presented with a bill by the markets which would be rather steep. Green light then to hike rates in December and at least a couple of further hikes next year. Even the tones with the Chinese will necessarily have to take into account the large quantity of US Treasuries in their hands, because basically taking international agreements such as NAFTA and the TPP to the extreme would not bring added value to the American cause, aimed at avoiding a future recession .
Where, on the other hand, Trump will correctly affect will be on NATO, to force those countries that do not support the Alliance adequately and financially to quickly change pace. In fact, the US bears two thirds of the costs and this is not consistent with a US foreign policy that has decidedly downsized over the years.
Thus Putin from Mother Russia will be able to breathe a sigh of relief in seeing tensions eased by NATO and will be able to re-propose itself for its mediation work in Syria, in the hope then of resuming and strengthening Gazprom's business with the EU and above all North Stream 2, which should arrive in Germany obtaining an easing of the infamous sanctions.
With Congress in favor, it will be easy for Trump to launch economic plans that affect the real economy and therefore the country's infrastructure, always effectively finding the measure between electoral promises and what he will be able to implement in the first 100 days.
Markets will not wait for the settlement date to price expectations which are growing day by day and which are fed by the numerous declarations of Trump, who already with the first announcements on the security of the borders and on the fight against illegal immigrants and those involved in criminal activities does not waste time consolidating the consensus obtained.
