The Syrian conflict and the humanitarian tragedy which as a result have dug deeply into the world's geopolitical structures, with undeniable effects not only on the already impressive migratory flows from the African continent to Europe but also on American foreign policy and on relations between Turkey and Europe. Now The USA and Türkiye become needles of the balance in very different aspects of increasingly unstable world balances dominated by the uncertainty that reverberates on the international financial markets.
In Türkiye, the referendum is just over a month away that President Tayyip Erdogan has called to expand presidential powers and in fact empty the figure of Prime Minister by assuming the role of leader of a Presidential Republic that would thus bid farewell forever to the centuries-old tradition on which Ataturk had refounded the Republican country.
The failed coup last summer thus became the bogeyman used by the "Sultan" Erdogan to convince the population of the need for a radical constitutional reform, set out in 18 amendments, and to guarantee long-term economic political stability with foreign investors . In fact, the economic crisis induced by the flight of capital and investments and above all by the devaluation of the currency aggravated by high inflation frightened the Turks who began to turn their backs on it.
The controversy then on the politics of 3 million Syrian refugees as hostages to obtain European funding and the new commitment of the army on the Syrian front and in an anti-Kurd version increase all the more as the repression on the media and the prolongation of the state of emergency help the Government to impose a heavy and vexatious climate.
The tussle over the YES and NO in the referendum February 2 even saw the diffusion of an official document which warned public employees against the use of any word or interlayer, which declined in a positive sense, would create confusion in the electorate. The term "Hairly", which is frequently mistaken as a good omen, has thus become a protest hashtag against the government on Twitter. The backtracking of the AKP party did not serve to convince Turkish citizens or to curb the unleashing of satire on social media and then promptly to cause the reaction of the President's fans given that even the families who baptized their children with the name Evet (translated “SI”) by members of the AKP. And in mid-February the withdrawal of the anti-smoking campaign in some large municipalities: whose slogan was "If you say NO, you will have won over your life and your future", a message that makes us understand the incandescent atmosphere of this referendum campaign.
But Erdogan, who until recently accused his opponents of wanting a new coup or civil war, now that dissent is growing, has had to tone down and in the population the sense of frustration and the sensation of widespread economic difficulty becomes increasingly tangible . Plus the threat of a additional referendum on the death penalty in the event of a failure in this sense by Parliament, it pushes Turkey further and further away from the EU. The intimidation and new arrests of those carrying out the NO campaign continue and in fact the social situation remains explosive.
Il parallelism between the authoritarianism of Erdogan that of Putin and Trump they are the mirror of an era of chaos where the difficulty of guaranteeing constructive political stability in a global growth environment that offers the illusion of an inflation drugged by oil is palpable. But at the center remains the inability to resolve the Syrian conflict and the tactics of the three leaders also in the face of an ISIS enemy who seems to have disappeared from the daily news but which remains active at the center of the conflict.
After supporting the rebels in northwestern Syria, Erdogan sided with Iran and Russia, causing American disappointment, which withdrew its promises of field support to the Turks. Thus the peace talks that began in December have already foundered in the sea of multiple alliances that are constantly changing. The Turkish government is now relaunching the idea of an Islamic state in Syrian territory under his control but Trump remains allied with the Kurds and does not welcome the attempt to "mess up" with the Saudi strategists. A lot will therefore depend on the outcome of the Turkish referendum on the position of the USA who hope to see a weakened and maneuverable Erdogan mindful of the bad experience of the war in the Mediterranean and of the Libyan case after the killing of Gaddafi…
