When the first nominations for the presidency of the United States were announced in June 2015, the probability of victory for Donald Trump was almost nil. A little over a year later, at the convention in Cleveland, Trump received the nomination of the Republican Party. On the Democratic front, Hillary Clinton, who as in 2008 at the beginning of the primaries seemed to have no rivals, instead found a tough opponent in Bernie Sanders who made her suffer until the convention at the end of July in Philadelphia.
Between now and November 8th we will see a very tough battle with no holds barred. However it turns out, understanding the causes of Clinton's difficulties and those of Trump's success allows you to better understand the United States today.
Answers to fears
The ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans is ancient. However, US politics has never been more polarized than in the eight years of Obama's presidency. Political action has been paralyzed, due to the growing litigiousness between the parties and the contrasts between the President and Congress. It is no coincidence that in recent years the President has repeatedly resorted to decrees. Even the individual parties are split internally.
The growing polarization of politics, the high rate of litigiousness, the judicial drift, the risk of blockage of the institutions, reinforce the disaffection of citizens towards politics. The temptation is that to solve problems it is necessary to bypass politics. And Trump presents himself as the one who can do it.
Over the past 15 years, a sense of uncertainty has developed among Americans that generates frustration, sometimes fear or even anguish. The episodes of terrorism and the serious economic crisis of 2008 have greatly contributed to spreading this feeling. Trump, at least in words, offers an answer to these anxieties.
To the anxiety produced by globalization and the fragility of the economy, Trump responds by saying "no" to the free trade agreements Tpp and Ttip. To the fear of uncontrolled immigration – 11 million illegal immigrants live in the United States – Trump responds by threatening to build a wall on the border with Mexico (the construction costs of which should moreover be borne by the Mexicans!).
Trump responds to the threat of terrorism by proposing to deny Muslims entry into the US. To the sense of frustration deriving from the downsizing of the role of the United States as an international power, Trump responds with a generic and superficial but simple and immediate slogan: Make America Great Again.
The numerous and rapid social changes in American society in recent decades have also contributed to creating a sense of bewilderment in a part of the population that has great difficulty in adapting to it. Social issues such as abortion, homosexual rights, gay marriage, the liberalization of soft drugs have created strong contrasts and deep divisions. As is often the case, elites have relatively easily accepted – and indeed often promoted – these changes. On the contrary, a part of the country's base struggles to accept them. This has further increased the already strong sense of disconnect between elites and citizens.
Politics or reality TV show?
Another explanation for Trump's success lies in communication. The Republican candidate masters the television tool perfectly. For 11 years he was the producer and host of a very successful reality show - The Apprentice - in which he interviewed young careers in a direct and rough style.
In this electoral campaign, Trump has transferred the culture and communication methods of reality TV to politics. He speaks with simple and immediate language, populist and spectacular, politically incorrect and often vulgar. Trump mocks other candidates, giving them nicknames. Ted Cruz becomes "Ted, the liar", Jeb Bush becomes "Bush, the soft", Marco Rubio becomes "little Marco" (where "piccolo" refers to his youth and inexperience but also to his short stature). Political competitors, but also not very compliant journalists are ridiculed. This causes a sensation and attracts media attention.
Hillary's weaknesses
Hillary Clinton certainly has many strengths compared to Trump. The most important is political experience. However, Clinton has some weaknesses that could jeopardize her run for the White House. Among these is her divisive character. One part of the country loves it, another part hates it. Beyond that, Hillary doesn't inspire confidence in many voters. For several reasons. The main one is the investigation - now closed - by the FBI on the e-mails that Clinton sent from her personal PC during her activity as Secretary of State.
A second reason for distrust is his attitude on the occasion of the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi in September 2012, for which an impression of responsibility remains in an event which in particular saw the death of ambassador Chris Stevens. Another weakness is the strong ties to the establishment. Just scroll through the list of Clinton Global Initiative lenders to find the names of investment banks, multinationals and foreign countries.
The electoral clash in the coming months will be tough. Clinton seems to have more skills to play the complex role of President of the United States. However, it would be a serious mistake for the Democratic candidate to underestimate her opponent. Over the past year, the primaries of the two parties have shown a new America, partly unexpected, not always easy to decipher and understand. And Trump has shown, against all odds, that he knows how to listen and ride it.
