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Tlc in Europe: who wins and who loses

ANNUAL MEDIOBANCA R&D SURVEY on telecommunications - Spain, UK and Italy lead the recovery - Our country is fourth - Overview of the top players

Tlc in Europe: who wins and who loses

Italy is the fourth European country in telecommunications (31,9 billion in turnover) after Germany (56,7 billion), Uk (41,5 billion) e France (35,7 billion), while the Spain (28,9 billion) ranks fifth.

Between 2012 and 2016, Italy suffered the greatest reduction in revenues (-17,5%), followed by France (-12,2%), Spain (-8,3%), UK (-7,6 %) and Germany (-2,3%). But 2016 was a year of recovery for Spain (+8,6% on 2015), UK (+ 0,3%) and Italy (+ 0,2%).

Analyzing the major European telecommunications companies, we find the German at the top Deutsche Telekom with 73,1 billion in revenues (+5,6% on 2015 and +25,7% on 2012), the Spanish Telefónica with 52 billion (-5,2% on 2015 and -16,6% on 2012) and the British Vodafone with 47,6 billion (-3,4% on 2015 and -6,2% on 2012).

Telecom is in seventh place with 18,7 billion (-3,7% on 2015 and -26,9% on 2012), but it is also the company that in the European comparison scored the best industrial profitability in 2016 together with the Norwegian Telenor, both with the MON on turnover at 20,1%.

In terms of net profitability they prevail Swisscom (13,8% net result on turnover) e Telecom Italy (9,7%) while closing at a loss Vodafone e Altice.

In terms of equity, Vodafone has the greatest financial solidity, with financial debts on shareholders' equity equal to 63,2%, while for Telecom Italy the incidence is higher (138,2%), but still better than Telefónica (212,7%), Deutsche Telekom (166,4%) e Telenor (155,9%). Comparing, however, the incidence of liquid assets on financial debt, Telenor marks the highest value (26,7%), while Telecom Italy records an intermediate value (12,2%).

In terms of industrial investments (tangible + intangible), in 2016 Telecom Italy reports the best indicator (26,1% of turnover), before Deutsche Telekom (22,3%), Telenor (21,5%) and Orange (21%).

For many of these companies, foreign revenues play a decisive role, given that the major European operators make an average of 56,3% of their turnover beyond their national borders, with the highest shares reached by Vodafone Group (85,5%), Telephone (75,6%) and Telenor (75,5%). Telecom Italy stops at 27%.

What happens in the first 9 months of 2017? Compared to the same period of 2016, in the first nine months of 2017 the aggregate turnover of the 9 main European telephone operators increased by 3,1%. To record the best performances Telecom Italy (+ 5,3%) and Deutsche Telekom (+4,2%). Industrial profitability is growing for all operators except Altice.

Mediobanca R&D infographic on telecommunications
Mediobanca R&D

THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR IN ITALY: PERFORMANCE

In 2016, the telecommunications sector in Italy represented 1,9% of GDP, 2,6% of household spending and 5,3% of total investments. From 2012 to 2016, the sector was generally downsizing, despite showing signs of recovery in 2016. For the first time in the last five years, in fact, in 2016 revenues grew on the previous year (+0,2%), settling at 31,9 billion, even if they remain far from the values ​​of 2012 (-17,5%). In 2016, the turnover of the mobile network prevailed again (16,1 billion, up by 2,4% on 2015), while the decline of that from the fixed network continued, amounting to 15,8 billion (-2%).

The main players in our country are Telecom Italy with 18,7 billion in revenues, Wind Tre Italy1 (6,3 billion on a like-for-like basis) e Vodafone Italy (6,2 billion). Telecom Italia is also the Group that in the period 2012-2016 recorded the greatest contraction (-26,9%), followed by Vodafone Italy (-19,2%) And Wind Tre Italy (-16,8% on a like-for-like basis).

in the five years analysed Fastweb is the only company growing (+5,6% on 2012 and +3,4% on 2015), but compared to the previous year they also recorded a positive sign Tiscali (+ 2,5%), Wind Tre Italy (+ 1,5%) and Vodafone Italy (+ 1,4%).

Among the main Groups, Telecom Italy highlights not only the best industrial profitability (MON at 20,1% of revenues), followed by Vodafone Italy (8,9%) and Wind Tre Italy (8%), but also the best incidence of current result (15,5%) and of that netto (9,7%). On the contrary, in 2016 the losses of Tiscali (with -22,8% of revenues) and Wind Tre Italia (-23,4%, calculated on the pro-forma data) should be noted.

In terms of investments, the Italian telcos have invested overall 6,9 billion in 2016, equal to 5,3% of total investments (down from 6% in 2015). Of these 4,4 billion concern fixed telephony (+6,4% on 2015) e 2,5 billion mobile (-20,6%, against the substantial completion of the 4G network).

In the five years Fastweb it is the company with the highest average investment rate (31,4%), followed by Telecom Italia with 22,7%. In July 2016 Telecom Italia and Fastweb formed FlashFiber (jv at 80% and 20%), to connect by 2020 3 million housing units in the main 29 Italian cities with FTTH technology (1 Gigabit/s), for a total investment of 1,2 billion euro.

What happens in the first 9 months of 2017? Compared to the same period of 2016, the aggregate revenues of the players in the TLC sector in Italy increased by +3,5%: Fastweb + 7,3% Tiscali +6,9% (first 6 months), Telecom Italy +5,3% and Vodafone Italy +3,4% (first 6 months). Only exceptions Wind Tre Italy e Poste Mobile which recorded a contraction of -2,1% and -8,5% respectively (on a like-for-like basis).

Mediobanca R&D infographic on telecommunications
Mediobanca R&D

TLC NUMBERS IN ITALY: PENETRATION AND MARKET SHARES

In June 2017, the number of mobile network customers amounted to 98,9 million, up by +0,7% compared to the end of 2016. Access to the fixed network (voice plus data) amounted to 20,5 million (+1,3%) but down by 6,4% compared to 2012. Only broadband accesses on the fixed network went against the trend, up by +3,9% in the first 6 months of 2017 and by +13,2%, 2012% in the five-year period 16-13,8, going from 16,2 to 2017 million lines at the end of June XNUMX.

What are the positive and critical areas? Italy ranks among the countries with the highest mobile telephony penetration rate (144%), but has a modest penetration of 4G for data transmission on the mobile network (26% of total subscriptions) and a low diffusion of lines fixed with 34 connections per 100 inhabitants compared to 61 for the UK. Broadband coverage in super-fast mode (≥72 Mbit/s) is also not particularly high (92% against 81% in the UK and 30% in Germany).

With regard to market shares, in June 2017 in mobile Wind Tre Italy is the first operator with 32,1%, followed by Telecom Italy with 30,3% e Vodafone Italy with 30,2%. In the fixed (voice + data), however, despite losing 10,1 percentage points compared to 2012, Telecom Italy clearly maintains its leadership with a market share of 54,5%, with the second Wind Tre Italy which stands at 13,1%. Similar situation for the broadband connection, with Telecom Italia at 45,5% (-5,9 pps on 2012) e Wind Tre Italy al 15%.

Mediobanca R&D infographic on telecommunications
Mediobanca R&D

TLCs IN THE WORLD

The research also analyzed the 16 largest international groups, from which it emerges that Asian and European companies are the most numerous with 6 and 7 representatives each.

The first three international operators are the American companies AT&T e Verizon Communications, respectively with a turnover in 2016 of approximately 155,4 billion and 119,5 billion, and the Japanese Nippon Telegraph and Telephone with 92,3 billion. Telecom Italy it is sixteenth.

The highest industrial margins are those by Verizon Communications (MON at 21,4% of turnover), followed by China Mobile (20,8%) and Telecom Italia (20,1%)

The highest investment rates in 2016 belong to Chinese companies and Mexican America Movil; Telecom Italia has a good position, with industrial investments equal to 26,1% of turnover (the best value among European telcos).

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