Asian stock markets opened lower, held back by a new alarm signal on the health of the Chinese economy. Both the Csi index of Shanghai and Shenzhen (-0,7%) and Hong Kong (-1,4%) lose ground. Negative variations of less than 1% also for the stock exchanges of South Korea, Australia and India, where car sales in 2018 exceeded the figure for Germany. Absent Tokyo, closed for holidays.
Futures on the European markets (-0,8% in London) and Wall Street (-0,4% on the S&P 500) were also weak.
The Chinese currency, which reached its highs in the last three months against the dollar already at the end of last week, appreciates at 6,75. The euro moved little this morning at 1,147 against the dollar.
Brent oil returned below 60 dollars a barrel this morning to 59,9 dollars (-1%).
MADE IN USA: CHINESE PURCHASES FALL IN DECEMBER (-36%)
Beijing's exports closed 2018 with a single-digit increase (+9,9%), with a sharp drop in trade recorded in December both in exports (-4,4%) and in imports ( -7,6%), much worse than forecasts. In particular, purchases of Made in the USA are in free fall: -35,8%, confirming that the slowdown of the iPhone is only the tip of the iceberg of the crisis caused by tariffs, which will in any case worsen in the coming months, they say the experts.
In 2019, in fact, the trade surplus with Washington grew: 323,23 billion dollars, a record since 2006, against 275,81 billion a year ago, thanks to an unexpected hold (+9,9% , historic record) of Chinese trade until the autumn, due to the acceleration of purchases before the entry into force of the new US tariffs. But in December there was a turnaround (-3,5% of imports), in line with the slowdown in the economy: Beijing reduced its GDP estimates for 6 by 6,5-2019% , down from 6,6% last year, the lowest figure in the last 28 years. Chinese investments in the States are also in free fall: -84%.
CITIGROUP OPENS US QUARTERLY
The US quarterly season will debut tonight with the accounts of Citigroup, to continue tomorrow with those of JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Wednesday will be the turn of Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Outside of the banking sector, the spotlight will be on Netflix (Thursday), in anticipation of a renewed rally in subscriptions.
The appointment is awaited, this time, with particular trepidation by Wall Street: profits should register an average rise of 6,5%, according to analysts, much less than the 23,5% reported a year ago in coincidence with the of tax reform.
Meanwhile, the freeze on the activity of the federal government reached the 23rd.
GIORGETTI: "I DO NOT EXCLUDE AN INTERVENTION IN MPS"
Also in Italy the key event of the day concerns a market event: the number one observer will be Tim. The company's board of directors is scheduled for today with the new clash between Vivendi and Elliott at the center and in particular the request of the French to convene an assembly in advance to allow the new auditors to be appointed and to submit to the shareholders the request for dismiss 5 directors (Fulvio Conti, Alfredo Altavilla, Massimo Ferrari, Dante Roscini, Paola Giannotti de Ponti) and appoint in their place Franco Bernabè, Rob van der Valk, Flavia Mazzarella, Gabriele Galateri and Francesco Vatalaro.
To follow the hearing of Giovanni Tria on the Carige decree. In yesterday's interview with Corriere della Sera, the Economy Minister maintains that Italy is not heading towards recession, but towards stagnation. This means that Tria expects a flat change in GDP for the fourth quarter. The data will be published on January 31st.
Meanwhile Giancarlo Giorgetti, undersecretary of the Northern League at Palazzo Chigi, does not rule out a new intervention on Mps "in the coming weeks".
On the political front, the "decree" on should arrive at the Council of Ministers this week CBI e share 100. In Parliament, the approval of the simplification decree is expected in the Senate.
BREXIT, FIRE EVE FOR THE STERLING TOO
In Europe the spotlight is focused on Brexit. Tomorrow the vote on the plan agreed by Theresa May with Brussels for consensual separation will be held in the Municipalities. In the event of a rejection, the Premier will have only three days to present a plan B. According to a Bloomberg poll, May has only a 15% chance of passing her agreement proposal, while a second referendum is given at 25%. Analysts say this option could lead the pound to its highest level since last May, while a no-deal would plunge it to its lowest level since the 2016 pro-Brexit vote.
Today the data on European industrial production will be released: a probable confirmation of the setback recorded in France, Germany and Italy.
Publication of the Bank of Italy survey on inflation and growth expectations in Italy is also expected.
