Rocketing start this morning of the Asian price lists. Shanghai is in the lead: +1,8%, the highest for 11 weeks, despite the drop in exports in October (-6,9%). The markets are hoping for new stimuli to domestic demand, but the risk of a further slowdown in the economy seems to have diminished in any case: Single's Day will be held on Wednesday, the day dedicated to Chinese shopping with a discount on Alibaba, which in 2014 generated a turnover of 9,3 billion dollars. A new record will be proof that the Dragon crisis has now normalized. In the meantime, the authorities have lifted the block on IPOs, after four months of quarantine.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is even more effervescent: +2,1%, in parallel with a new decline in the yen against the dollar (123,4). Stock markets celebrate Friday's excellent US employment data, probably a decisive signal for the next turn in the Fed's monetary policy. "The US rate hike in December is 100% certain". Bill Gross, guru of the bond markets, thus certified the mood of the market over the weekend. But, having finished the debate on whether and when (Janet Yellen's announcement will arrive on December 16th) the debate now moves to how much: will it be a one-off move or will it trigger an upward trend in long-term rates? Hence the attention to the forthcoming data, in particular that relating to the trend of US consumption, to be released on Friday.
The spotlights are also on the trend of the GDP of the Eurozone in the third quarter: +0,4% is forecast for the July-September period, +1,7% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the OECD's Economic Outlook will be published today. Mario Draghi and Mark Carney, governor of the Boe, will speak on Wednesday in London at the Bank of England Open Day. Thursday will be Janet Yellen's turn. Other speeches are expected from Fed voting members: Charles Evans (Chicago), William Dudley (New York) and Dennis Lockart (Atlanta).
WARREN BUFFET, 9,4 BILLION PROFITS THANKS TO KETCHUP
The Wall Street indices closed with a plus sign for the sixth consecutive week, after the excellent data on employment (271 new jobs): The S&P's 500 index advanced by 0,7%. financials: in evidence JP Morgan and Bofa. The best stock was Goldman Sachs. Historic record for Berkshire Hathaway's profits: 9,43 billion dollars, double the 2014 (4,62 billion), thanks to Warren Buffett's earnings in the Heinz operation, renamed the ketchup deal.
The dollar is at its highest level since May at 1,07. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill rose 5 basis points to 2,30%, a level it hasn't seen since April. Little movement in Piazza Affari: +0,39% at the end of the last five sessions. Since the beginning of the year, the index has risen by 18,4%.
BTPs LIVE. THURSDAY THE TREASURY AUCTION
The mid-month auctions start this week. Tonight the Treasury will communicate the amount of the offer of medium-long term bonds scheduled for Thursday. On Wednesday, 6 billion euros will be placed in 12-month Treasury bills against bonds maturing for 6 billion. Government bond yields rose on Friday on the back of the US bond trend. The 10-year BTP rose to 1,76%, from 1,69%. The spread with the Bund is stable at 108, because in the meantime the yield of the German government bond has also risen to 0,68%.
TODAY THE QUARTERLY OF POSTE ITALIANE AND MONCLER
The quarterly of Poste Italiane stands out today on the Piazza Affari agenda, the first since its debut on the list. The stock closed on Friday at 6,66 euros, still lower than that of the IPO of 6,75 euros, but far from what has so far been the all-time low marked on the third day of listing at 6,41 euros. The subsidiary Poste Vita announced the purchase of 100% of SDS – System data Software, a company operating in the health sector – for a countervalue of 20 million.
Moncler's quarterly report is also scheduled, with a brilliant recovery (+6.96%) in the last week. Board meetings of Ascopiave, Finnat, Intermobiliare, Juventus, Molmed, Premuda, Retelit, Valsoia will also be held. Today the Danieli dividend is detached (0,1 ordinary, 0,1207 savings).
SHOWDOWN AT THE VOLKSWAGEN COUNCIL. MARCHIONNE: MANAGEMENT TOO CENTRALIZED
Today, after the Sunday meeting of the Volkswagen select committee, a meeting of the supervisory board will be held which could sanction, amid strong contrasts, dramatic decisions: capital increases and asset sales, all while the union's hostility to measures cost containment for workers. The news from the Suddeutsche Zeitung suffices to give the measure of the atmosphere, the leaders of the group have decided not to travel to the United States again after American investigators seized the passport of a visiting executive. Today the house is expected to announce a bonus for American customers who own a diesel car: $500 in cash plus a $750 discount to spend at dealerships.
"It depends on what they sell." This is how Sergio Marchionne replied to the question of whether he would buy Volkswagen parts if they were for sale. “Of course – he added – I, like FCA, would never have bought Ducati, and I certainly have no interest in a football team. And even Bugatti I don't think he added much” to the group. Regarding Dieselgate, the manager said: “There is no conspiracy” against Volkswagen, “but there was a technical defect in the way the car was engineered. From an industrial point of view, this crisis re-proposes the need to share choices in an aggregate way, to avoid creating excessive pressure on companies. I wouldn't have done like them, that is trying to manage a global company with the centralization of decisions”.
In FCA, he claimed, “we have a much more distributed management: my interference is there, I travel a lot, but it would be bullshit to centralize everything in Turin or Detroit. We share objectives but operational management is decentralized”. Everything has stopped, for now, on the GM front: "I invited Mary Barra to dinner – Marchionne joked – but she doesn't even have a coffee with me".
UNICREDIT, 12 THOUSAND CUTS AND DISPOSAL IN SIGHT
But the most important event of the week concerns the Unicredit business plan (+10% since the beginning of 2015 against Intesa's +40%) which will be illustrated to the markets on Wednesday afternoon. The new plan should be divided into three points: savings on the structure; reorganization (and possible disposals) of the activities in Austria and Germany; enhancement of digital banking. Savings of over one billion are expected, mostly linked to workforce cuts in the order of 12 units, concentrated above all in Austria and Germany. Also on the table is the sale of the retail activities of Bank of Austria, the "slimming" of the Austrian sub-holding, the sale of the Ukrainian subsidiary and leasing in Italy. For the Financial Times, the sale of Fineco Bank is not excluded, if necessary. The goal is to avoid a new capital increase, the third in seven years.
In the banking sector, which recovered strongly on Friday, the Popolari continue to suffer: Banco Popolare -3,60%, Bper -3%. This week there should be the definitive go-ahead for the two legislative decrees implementing the European directive on the bail-in of banks.
ANSALDO STS, TODAY THE FIRST "JAPANESE" COUNCIL
First advice today from Ansaldo Sts in the Japanese jersey. The summit will meet in London, at the headquarters of Hitachi Rail Europe, which has just acquired control of the leading railway signaling company from Finmeccanica. Subject of the meeting: the integration with Hitachi and the entry into the board of directors of Alessandra Piccinino co-opted in place of Barbara Poggiali, whose independence was contested by the representatives elected by the funds because she is a manager of Poste Italiane.
On the Stock Exchange, the stock trades at 9,74 euros +0,57%, still above 9,50 euros, the price agreed for the transfer of 40% from the subsidiary to Hitachi, as well as the price of the takeover bid that the Japanese group will launch, through the subsidiary Hitachi Rail Italy Investments Srl, at the end of the review period on the offer document carried out by Consob.
TELECOM, CONSOB INVESTIGATES. MANEUVERS WAITING FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING
Telecom Italia is still in the limelight, down by 8,2% in the ordinary version after the go-ahead for the conversion of savings bonds which posted a leap of 5,4% on Friday. The two classes of shares should, according to analysts, reach a point of equilibrium pending the meetings that are to kick off the operation. Among the possible developments of the affair there could be Vivendi's request to integrate the agenda of the meeting of 15 December with the enlargement of the board of directors. The French group, which does not own savings shares, has declared itself in favor of the conversion, despite the reduction in this way of its stake from 20 to 14%. Meanwhile Xavier Niel is silent, diluted from 15% (potential) to 8%. Consob has opened an investigation into the movements of savings before Thursday's resolution requested by the borad.
