After Friday's profit-taking, today in the early afternoon the stock is listed on the Stock Exchange Telecom Italy rebounds (+1,6%, to 1,016 euros), despite the downpour of sales that is hitting the Ftse Mib (-2%). The rebound comes on the heels of news that Vivendi continued to buy Telecom shares at the turn of the Christmas holidays and a study by Mediobanca which suggests buying securities of the group led by Marco Patuano.
The first factor is of particular importance because reopens the game on the conversion of savings shares. After presenting itself at the shareholders' meeting last December 15 with about 20,5% of the shares, the media giant chaired by Vincent Bolloré took over – with purchases also outside the market – a further 0,86% of Telecom, spending 134 million and thus rising to 21,36%. At this point Vivendi can reach up to 24,9% without being forced to launch a takeover bid: otherwise, as already announced a month ago, the French group can promote a new savings share conversion plan, which by itself implies a capital dilution of approximately 30%.
With "current prices well below its average load price, which is close to 1,15 euros - says an analyst quoted by Radiocor - Vivendi is likely to take its share up to 25 percent", which would trigger the takeover bid obligation. According to another broker, this move would be preparatory for a possible new attempt to convert Telecom savings into ordinary ones: in fact, the strengthening of the capital would allow Vivendi to maintain a leadership position among the shareholders even after the dilution deriving from the conversion of savings bonds.
In December the conversion project presented by Telecom management had failed because rejected by the assembly and in particular by Vivendi, which was at odds with the fixed exchange ratio. “Let's assume that Vivendi may once again consider the conversion of savings shares but this may not happen before the renewal of the board in spring 2017”, concludes Equita.
Finally, under the lens of the operators there is also industry consolidation, which the CEO once again spoke about. According to Patuano, Telecom is more an aggregator of smaller companies in Europe than a potential prey for larger groups. In fact, it would be really complex to incorporate a group that owns the network in Italy into a subject, such as Orangecontrolled by a foreign government.
