The stars and stripes economy is running but the Fed won't touch rates before 2024. The opinion of the US central bank, which arrived at the end of the FOMC meeting, reassured the markets. According to the majority of Fed bankers this year GDP will rise by 6,5% and inflation will go above 2% (2,2% the most widespread estimate) but these "temporary" results do not lead to an increase in rates which, in any case, will be signaled well in advance. A more "dovish" verdict than expected, immediately received by the markets:
ASIA AT A TWO WEEK HIGH
- Stock markets in Asia are up. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 1,3%, a two-week high.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1,5%, the CSI 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen, up 0,7%. Sectoral rotation, which since yesterday evening has penalized the stocks most linked to the economic cycle, weighs down Sydney's S&P ASX 200: -0,8%. - In Seoul SK Biosciences, which produces the Astra Zeneca vaccine under license, recorded +160% on the occasion of the IPO. The big names in high technology rise, among them, Apple's suppliers stand out: it seems that in a few weeks there will be the presentation of a new family of iPads.
THE PARK DEDICATED TO SUPERMARIO OPENS IN TOKYO
- Tokyo +0,85. Wednesday saw the inauguration, already postponed twice, of the playground dedicated to Super Mario, one of the investments linked to the Olympic Games.
- The increase is halved in the final after the publication in the Nikkei Times of the news that the Bank of Japan in today's meeting, Thursday, intends to review the conditions of the purchases of ten-year bonds, widening the fluctuation range of the yield between -0,25 and +0,25%. The Japanese press also anticipates that the Bank of Japan will soon announce a halt to ETF purchases.
- The future of the Nasdaq index is flat, that of the Dow Jones slightly higher.
THE DOW RISES ABOVE 33 THOUSAND, TESLA ACCELERATES
The US markets immediately tuned in to the indications of the central bank. S&P and Dow closed positive at new record multiples (the Dow +0,58% for the first time above 33.000 points), the Nasdaq rose by 0,4% led by Amazon +1,4% and Tesla +3,7 .XNUMX%.
The yield on the ten-year Treasury Note traded at 1,6374% did not fall. Rates have fallen on short maturities, but much less on those of 5 years and above: such an unresponsive Fed is a recipe for stronger inflation in the medium term, and so the market increases the risk premium.
Reactions on commodities, gold and cryptocurrencies are also contained.
WTI oil at $64,1, down 0,7%.
Gold at $1.750, +0,2%.
Bitcoin at $58.850, +2%. Morgan Stanley will be the first major US bank to offer wealthy clients, those with more than $XNUMX million under management, access to Bitcoin funds.
BIDEN ATTACKS: "PUTIN IS A KILLER". TODAY SUMMIT WITH THE CHINESE
On the international front, Joe Biden's attack on Vladimir Putin should be noted. “He's a killer – he said in a TV interview – and he will pay dearly for trying to influence the 2020 presidential elections”. Russia has recalled its ambassador to the US.
Today in Anchorage, Alaska, there will be the first face-to-face between the US and Chinese delegations: the United States will take an uncompromising position in the talks, according to the agencies.
Mark Rutte won the Dutch elections and will thus be able to form the government for the fourth time in a row.
FLAT PRICE LISTS WAITING FOR POWELL. THE EMA TOWARDS THE YES AT ASTRAZENECA
Interim session on Wednesday for European price lists pending Jerome Powell's press conference and the EMA verdict on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
In the mid-afternoon, the Irishman Emer Cooke will announce the result of the investigations by the Union's experts. It will be an acquittal that will implicitly recommend the 16 governments that have suspended them to resume vaccinations with the Anglo-Swedish serum as the balance between benefits and risks of the compound remains positive.
The European Union threatens more stringent measures to limit the export of anticovid serums. Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that BionTech/Pfizer and Moderna are “very reliable pharmaceutical companies, AstraZeneca is not, referring to non-delivery.
- Piazza Affari takes a very small step forward: +0,08%. Paris +0,03%, London -0,50%
ELECTRIC LIFT FOR VOLKSWAGEN AND BMW.
- Frankfurt +0,26% on the day when the (electric) car literally took off.
- After the expansion on the eve of Volkswagen, it rose by 16,5% followed by BMW by +6,4% on the wave of the progress of the electric car, despite the depressed level of the European market (its lowest level for 8 years in February). Volkswagen, which aims to sell one million electric cars this year, has predicted that 2030% of cars will be electric by 70. By the same year, six gigafactories will be in operation in Europe for the production of batteries. The plants will be built through partnerships and will have a production capacity of 240 gigawatt hours per year.
- BMW, which controls the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, among others, said it expects a significant increase in pre-tax profits for 2021. The group estimates that the automotive segment will record a strong increase in deliveries in trend terms, with an increase in the Ebit margin expected between 6% and 8%.
- BMW expects around 90% of market segments to have all-electric models by 2023. The BMW i4 model will be launched three months early.
ALSO READ: Cars, sales plummeting but the recovery has started on the Stock Exchange
THE SPREAD TO 100 ON THE WAVE OF T BONDS
The spread recovered to 100 points (+4,29%), the Italian ten-year rate reached 0,70%, in a global context of renewed tensions on government bonds. The Italian bond worsens in the final, in the wake of the US Treasury.
The Treasury this morning assigned the maximum amount of 2,5 billion euros of the April 2031 BTP in an exchange operation, withdrawing a total of 2,5 billion in four bonds between BTPs, BTPEIs and CTZs maturing in 2021.
GREECE ALSO ISSUED A 30-YEAR BONDS
The Greek debt agency has issued its first bond (GGB) 30 years after the 2008 financial crisis. Demand for the new bond issue has been extremely robust: more than 26 billion euros for an auction of 2,5 .XNUMX billion. Demand for the new ultra-long dated Greek bond reflects both investor confidence in the recent ECB signal and the fact that (Greek bonds are included in the PEPP) as well as strong belief in Athens' convergence profile.
BUSINESS PLACE BETS ON THE BPM/BPER MARRIAGE
Flat day for the Piazza Affari price list, awaiting the word from the Fed. But the banks once again stand out, starting with Banca Bpm +3,82% and Bper +3,12%. The meetings between the CEO of Piazza Meda Giuseppe Castagna and the CEO of Unipol, Carlo Cimbri, a large shareholder of the Modena institute, pushed the two stocks into the odor of a merger.
Unicredit and Mediobanca are also on the rise, at the center of the other potential banking risk. Meanwhile, the auditors who examined the 2020 financial statements of Monte dei Paschi -o.34% reported "significant uncertainty" in relation to the institution's business continuity.
DIVIDENDS RETURN, MANAGED IN FERMENT
Tips on asset management. Banca Mediolanum advances +2,6%, followed by Anima +1%, who benefit from expected coupon distribution starting from September as anticipated by the ECB Supervisory Chairman, Enria. Equita believes that “Enria's words constitute an element of support for securities in the banking and asset management sector and contribute to reducing the uncertainty relating to the distribution of dividends after 30 September”.
GENERALI AIMS AT SHOPPING IN RUSSIA
Generali -0,4%, is evaluating the purchase of the Russian company RESO Garantia, an operation worth around two billion euro.
Eni advances +0,59% despite the negative day for oil. In favor of the six-legged dog, the news of theacquittal of top management from the accusation of bribes in Nigeria.
VW EFFECT ON PIRELLI AND CNH
Even Stellantis +0,45% closes in positive territory despite the bad data on registrations in Europe. Exane BNP raises the target price to 18 euros. The wave of the rise in Volkswagen, so strong that the intervention of US traders galvanized by Biden's stimuli is suspected, touches Pirelli +2,02% and Cnh +0,98%.
SAMSUNG CHIPS ALARM: BRAKING STM
The crisis of the chips instead slows down Stm -0,75%. Samsung has raised an alarm: there are not enough chips. Speaking at the shareholders' meeting, a senior executive at the world's largest semiconductor maker said there was a "serious imbalance" between an incapable supply and pandemic-triggered demand. The situation has worsened this winter due to bad weather that hit Texas, where there is an important semiconductor district where Samsung and Infineon operate.
Diasorin also down -1,6%. after the leap in the last two sessions in the wake of the difficulties associated with the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
RUNS AFTER MUTUIONLINE RESULTS
Out of the main basket:
- Results effect on online mortgages +9,5% after the announcement that 2020 closed with a net profit of 130,7 million euros, more than tripled compared to the previous year. According to Equita, “the fourth quarter is very solid and better than expected”.
- La Doria +6,17% to 15,8 euros, was promoted by Intesa San Paolo from add to buy, the target goes from 15,4 to 21 euros.
- Italian Wine Brands shine on the Aim +2,45%, in the wake of the 2020 accounts.
