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US rates and Italian spreads, heavy cocktail for the Stock Exchanges

Closing in red for the Asian lists and down in the morning for the European markets. The Trump-Fed conflict holds ground but in Milan the focus is still on the budget maneuver. The auction of 3- and 7-year BTPs ends with a strong surge in yields while the differential with Bunds returns to the 310-point area – Telecom Italia in Piazza Affari bucking the trend, bad cars and oil

US rates and Italian spreads, heavy cocktail for the Stock Exchanges

The rain of sales that hit first Wall Street (the worst session of the S&P 500 for eight months) then the Asian stock markets, albeit in an attenuated form, also affects Europe. In Piazza Affari, already yesterday at its lowest level for the year, the index fell by a further 1,5%, to around 19.400 points. Little better Paris and Frankfurt, down by 1,3%, worse Madrid -1,48%, London -1,8%.

A delicate auction ended in the morning which envisaged the issue of a maximum of 6,5 billion medium-long term BTPs. In detail: 3-3,5 billion Btp 15/10/2021; 1-1,5 billion Btp 15/11/2025; 1-1,5 billion Btp 1/9/2033 and Btp 1/2/2037. Attention was focused on longer maturities, to take advantage of the sharp rise in yields.

The good news is that the Treasury has placed the maximum amount and this already represents a positive response. Requests fluctuated from a minimum of 1,26 times for the 3-year bond (never this low for a year and a half) to a maximum of 1,9 times the offer.

As expected, interest is on the rise. The 15-year BTP recorded a yield of 3,66% (from 3,04% in July), the 19-year one 3,79%.

The two yields compare with the 3,60% recorded at this time on the secondary market by the ten-year BTP, up 13 basis points compared to yesterday's close. The spread rose again this morning above 300 points, reaching 309.

Meanwhile, Nick Gartside, head of JP Morgan's fixed income and commodities division, told Il Sole 24 Ore that his bank would continue to buy Italian debt. “The surge in the Italian spread represents an investment opportunity. We believe that political uncertainty is adequately rewarded: for this reason some of our funds are increasing their exposure to BTPs.

"There is no going back" thunders Matteo Salvini meanwhile: "We will not take away any of the rights that we have put in the economic maneuver", he said this morning in an interview with Radio Radicale. The Interior Minister reiterates that there will be no assets. The possibility of retiring at 100 – 38 years of contributions and 62 years of age – will lead to an increase in the pension debt of 100 billion euros and already in 2021 will weigh on pension expenditure by a further percentage point.

The euro/dollar is trading just below 1,1572, around the low of 1,1477 seen yesterday.

The fear of a slowdown in the economy, caused by the rise in interest rates, also has repercussions on oil, Brent this morning traded in Asia at 82,3 dollars a barrel, down 1%. Yesterday it closed down 2%. Hurricane Michael, getting closer to the United States, weakens and moves away from the productive areas of the Gulf of Mexico. Saipem -3,6%, Tenaris -4%, Eni -2,13%.

In Piazza Affari the utilities limit their losses: Enel -0,50% Snam -1%. Beyond Campari -0,70%, defensive stock par excellence.

Contained loss for stm -0,53%. Yesterday, the Sox index of US chip manufacturers lost 4,4%.

The crisis worsens among the banks Carige – 8,16% to a new all-time low. Fitch downgrades long-term credit rating from "B-" to "CCC+" placing this level under a negative "rating watch". The downgrade reflects Fitch's view that "bank failure is a real possibility." Creval -0,4% on the eve of the shareholders' meeting. Denis Dumont could obtain the support of 40% of the capital at tomorrow's meeting for the revocation and appointment of the board of directors.

Understanding –0,8%. The price fluctuates at its lowest since March 2017, in the last 12 months it has recorded a loss of 28%. On positive ground  Ubi +0,8%, just below parity Unicredit -0,2%. Asset management companies are suffering: Azimuth -3,17% Banca Mediolanum -1,98%.

The luxury crisis and car price cuts continue. Ferrari, meeting point between the two worlds, lost 3,9%, Moncler -2,5% Ferragamo -3,4%.

Between the four wheels Fiat Chrysler -1,6%. Cnh Industrial -1,5% despite the increase in September of sales of tractors and agricultural equipment in North America.

Telecom Italy +0,8%. This morning Exane BNP Paribas confirmed the underperform recommendation, lowering the target price to 0,36 euro from 0,38 euro.

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