The US rate hike is approaching, but in small steps. At the end of the June meeting, the Fed statement stated that, before proceeding with the increase, "improvements on the growth front should be awaited". Yesterday the formula was enriched by a single word: some. Before proceeding, therefore, the central bank wants to wait for "some improvement" in growth. It seems like a negligible detail, but not in the eyes of analysts. “The Fed does not even use a comma by chance – warns Michael Feroli, chief economist of JP Morgan – In this way the central bank opens the door to an increase as early as September but does not preclude a possible step backwards, in the event of negative news on the employment front.
Markets welcome the Fed's "adelante con juicio" stance.
THE FED REMAINS CAUTION: THE EXCHANGES APPRECIATE
This morning the Tokyo Stock Exchange advanced by 1,4% thanks also to the drop in the yen (-0,2%) Hong Kong +0,7%. China's price lists are also on positive ground for now.
On Wall Street, the S&P index rose, albeit slightly, after the Washington press release: +0,7% to 2108, six points above the previous level. Ultimately, the Dow Jones index advanced 0,69%, the S&P 500 0,8% and the Nasdaq 0,44%.
The dollar is also on the rise +0,4%.
Breath of the oxygen for raw materials from the lows. Brent trades at 53,73 dollars (+0,7%), copper also improves but gold remains below 1.100 dollars an ounce. However, the pressure on emerging currencies continues. The Brazilian central bank raised its rate to 14,25% to support the real, which has slipped to its lowest since 2003. The ruble is also under pressure - -2%.
MILAN -0,3%. POSITIVE FORECASTS FOR THE BTP AUCTION
Once the Fed file has been archived, a positive session is looming for the European lists, concentrated in the analysis of corporate data starting from Milan, grappling with the accounts of the Bigs. Among others: Eni, Generali, FCA, Finmeccanica and Mediaset.
Piazza Affari fell back yesterday, while the other European stock exchanges closed the session with moderate increases. The FtseMib index finished down 0,3% . The Paris and Madrid Stock Exchanges recorded gains of 0,8% and 0,2% respectively, Frankfurt +0,3%.
On the bond market, note the auction of medium-long term securities. Yields on 5- and 10-year BTPs are expected to drop sharply compared to the June auctions when they stood at 1,25 and 2,35 per cent respectively. Expectations are for a drop below 1% for the 5-year BTP (in the 0,80% area) and below 2% for the 1,90-year benchmark BTP traded yesterday in the 1,87% area (from 0,72% Tuesday). The German Bund yield also rose to 0,69% from XNUMX%.
ITALCEMENTI SUPERSTAR. HEAVY EFFECT ALSO ON BUZZI. AND SARAS
The cement sector is very lively, following the announcement of the sale of the controlling stake (45% of the capital) of Italcementi to the German Heidelberg Cement. Italcementi it flew up by 49%, to 9,85 euros, but did not reach the price of the tender offer which will be launched at 10,6 euros. 32,418 million shares were traded, compared to a daily average of 839.740 over the last thirty sessions.
The parent company Italmobiliare, the holding company of the Pesenti family which sold the controlling stake with proceeds of 1,66 billion euro, rose by 27%.
The positive effect spreads to other Italian cement manufacturers: Buzzi + 6% Cementir + 4,4%.
The return of interest of large foreign groups for Italian companies lights up Saras , up 4%: the rumor has been circulating for some time that the Morattis could cede control to the Russian Rosneft, which today has 21%.
SAIPEM UNDER FIRE. ACCOUNTS PUSH ENEL GREEN POWER UP
Waiting for the accounts approved last night by the board of directors positive closure for Eni +0,5%, which recovered in the final after being down for the whole session, weighed down by the fall of the subsidiary Saipem -3,4%.
Yesterday a shower of sales was unleashed on the share of the subsidiary of the six-legged dog triggered by the decision to proceed with writedowns for 929 million euros and to revise downwards the 2015 targets.
Enel drops by 0,5%,
Enel Green Power +2,5% after the good results: net income is 342 million, up 16,7% compared to the same period last year.
CHANGES AT THE TOP, THUD OF UNICREDIT
The decline of Unicredit -3,3%, victim of rumors according to which the ECB would have addressed some notes to the management regarding the balance sheet. A bank spokesman denied this. For a couple of weeks there has been talk of a change at the top that could involve the whole team of top managers, starting with number two Roberto Nicastro could leave Unicredito to move to BNP Paribas or to take on a political position. Alessandro Decio, the head of the risk division, would also be leaving, his place should be taken by the chief risk officer for Italy, Massimiliano Fossati.
Also noteworthy is the sharp fall of MontePaschi -3,7% Ubi -1,5%. Stable Understanding -0,2%.
CNH BLACK JERSEY BETWEEN THE BLUE CHIPS. FCA ALSO DOWN
Industrial stocks contrasted on the eve of the accounts: Finmeccanica rose 0,6% , StM[STM.MI] +0,7%, Fiat Chrysler falls by 1,6%.
The worst blue chip is Industrial Driver's License -4% after publication of quarterly data. The company has revised downwards the profitability targets for 2015, the current year should close with an operating margin between 5,6% and 6,0%, from the previous 6,1%-6,4%. The revision is due "to the continued weakness of demand in the agricultural sector". The revenue target was confirmed and the debt target slightly improved, expected between 2,0 and 2,2 billion dollars, from 2,1-2,3 billion.
TLC, THE WIND-3 DEAL LOOKS DONE. TELECOM STRING WITH NETFLIX
Telecom Italy + 0,4%.
At the end of the session Bloomberg released the rumor according to which Vimpelcom and Hutchison Whampoa would be about to agree on the merger between their respective subsidiaries Wind and 3 Italia, two Italian telephony operators. The announcement could come next week. The transaction should include the launch of a $2,2 billion capital increase.
Putting together, Wind and 3 Italia would reach 30 million customers and revenues, on the basis of 2014 accounts, equal to 6,4 billion euros.
Separately, this afternoon Tim, the mobile division of Telecom Italia, reached an agreement to allow its customers to access the contents of Netflix, the US company that rents out streaming movies, TV series and video games. This autumn, Netflix is expected to launch its commercial activity in Italy.
Telecom's partnership with Netflix "sees us in Italy as the only open platform for the distribution of premium content that integrates the best offers available on the market", commented the CEO. of Telecom Italia, Marco Patuano.
Mediaset + 0,4%.
GOOD LUXURY, RECORDATI BOOM
Luxury rises led by Tod'S +2,7%, followed by Moncler +1,3% Ferragamo + 1%.
Of note is the performance of Recordati +5,9% after announcing first-half results, closed with net profit up 24% to 103,2 million euros The Milanese pharmaceutical group has raised its full-year net profit target to 190 million from 175 million, that of Ebit to 270 million from 250 million. Revenues for the year are confirmed at around 1 billion euro, after the first six months closed with a turnover of 539,1 million, up 6,2%.“The group's business continued in month of July in line with the performance of the semester”, the chairman and Giovanni Recordati said in a press release.
