The Swedish central bank is preparing to raise rates by 100 points today, the most aggressive move for at least 30 years, thus starting the wave of hikes over the next few days: tomorrow evening it will be the turn of the Fed (75 or 100 points) , then it will be the turn of the Bank of England, Switzerland but also South Africa and half a dozen other central banks. Only Japan, despite struggling with a rising inflation rate (2,8%), will confirm the sub-zero money line, but announces measures to defend the yen. The European Union, grappling with an increase in the price of bread (+18% in one year) is preparing to follow the wave. Without illusions: the Bundesbank predicts a recession, as do the economists questioned by Bloomberg.
Yet, despite everything, the Stock Exchanges are experiencing a timid rise. And the growth in yields on the bond market has not translated into an increase in the spread. The reasons? 1) The Fed may send an aggressive message, "but most of the decision is already priced in by the market, following last week's strong inflation reading," writes Algebris. 2) The spread remains stable at 226 basis points thanks to the hand of the ECB. In July, Frankfurt bought BTPs with full hands (ten billion more) as the German issues in charge gradually expired. And the same should have happened in August and September. The ECB has around a quarter of Italy's debt in stock, up from 3,5% a decade ago. Numbers that do justice to the electoral chatter.
Positive futures, falling trade in the USA
The picture of the price lists, cautious but positive, was confirmed this morning. The stock exchanges of Asia Pacific interrupt a negative series of five consecutive bearish sessions and rise in the wake of Wall Street which yesterday experienced one of the "leanest" sessions of the year: less than 10 million shares traded. The future of the EuroStoxx 50 index rises by 0,3%, a similar variation for the futures of US stock exchanges.
The electric car tows Hong Kong
The Hang Seng of Hong Kong it marks an increase of 1,2% driven by technology (Tech sector +2,4%). The rebound was led by the stocks of electric car manufacturers, XPeng +11%. Alibaba +3,5% also stands out. Semiconductor Manufacturing International +3%. CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai and Shenzhen +0,3%. Nikkei of Tokyo +0,4%. S&P ASX200's Sidney +1,3%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai + 1,2%.
China's central bank left its key rate unchanged. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members believe the arguments for slowing the rate hike are growing stronger. This can be read in the minutes of the last meeting.
T bond at highest since 2011
Yesterday, under the impetus of Apple and Tesla, Wall Street closed with the plus sign: Dow Jones +0,64%, S&P +0,69, Nasdaq +0,76%.
Il Ten-Year Treasury Notes yesterday it touched 2,50%, a level not seen since 2011, this morning it is at 2,47%. Two-year Treasury at 3,93%, near the highest since 2007.
The Porsche IPO does well in Frankfurt
Interlocutory session also for Europe. salt Frankfurt (+0,49%) after the announcement of the Porsche IPO.
Bond yields rose: the 10-year BTP grew by +4,04%, the Bund with the same duration by +1,78%.
The race of the Brazilian stock exchange continues
The MSCI World Index rebounded 0,5% to 2.580 points. Yesterday the São Paulo stock exchange was highlighted, index Bovespa +2,3%. The Central Bank expects a further cut in inflation in 2022 thanks to the decrease in the price of fuels favored by the new pricing policy of the state oil company Petrobras.
Gas drops to 171 euros, major maneuvers on oil
Petroleum up 0,5%. Iran is not ruling out the possibility of a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations Annual General Assembly in New York in the coming days to relaunch the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Tehran has never left the negotiating table.
Il European gas it fell by 3%, to 182 euros per MWh, after reaching its lowest level in two months at 171 euros. In three weeks the price has halved compared to the record peak at the end of August to around 350 euros.
In Piazza Affari: Eni does not list Plenitude, Stellantis hungry for chips
Volkswagen insists on the listing of Porsche, Eni renounces the Plenitude IPO for the moment. The listing could be moved to 2023. The investment banks of the pool (a group that includes Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Mediobanca, Unicredit, Barclays, Bank of America, Bnp Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Equita) are however continuing to work.
General Bank announced that it has closed a settlement agreement with the Revenue Agency: the company will pay 46 million euros to put an end to the Italian tax authorities' disputes.stellantis. Ford warned last night that the current quarter will be penalized by a billion dollars of extra costs. The French press reports of a strike in progress at the former Peugeot plant in Valenciennes, in Northern France.
