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Rates and exchange: the decoupling of Europe from the USA

Europe and the USA are marching more and more in opposite directions both on rates and on the exchange rate and the effects are reflected on the markets – In Piazza Affari, which opened today in red, the leap by Finmeccanica stands out in line with the defense industries – Spotlights on on FCA, Mediaset, banks, luxury and on Enel which is presenting the plan in London today.

Rates and exchange: the decoupling of Europe from the USA

European stock exchanges yesterday recorded the largest positive change in the last six weeks. After four consecutive sessions of decline, the Milan Stock Exchange achieved a rise of 2,3%, on a par with Frankfurt and Madrid. London +1,9%. Paris gained 2,7%. Athens rebounded after five consecutive sessions of decline: the benchmark index rose by 2% after an agreement was reached between Greece and its creditors. The agreement, once ratified by Parliament and approved by the Community bodies, will allow the disbursement of the first financial aid to Athens. The Greek 7,053-year trades at XNUMX%.

“The BTP – explains the IG strategist – moves hand in hand with Germany”. The spread, between now and December 3 (date of the ECB meeting) is destined to move within a narrow range, no more than 15 points.

How long will the unexpected rally in European stock markets last? The reasons for the rise are visible: not a day goes by without Mario Draghi or one of his collaborators confirming the imminent arrival of expansionary measures. France claims a more expansive policy to deal with terrorism. The Zew confidence index is on a strong recovery. The descent of crude oil has stopped for now. Above all, it accelerates the process of devaluation of the euro against the dollar.

More music in the USA. Not only because the signs of an increase in rates are multiplying (yesterday a slight increase in inflation), but because the strengthening of the dollar risks weighing heavily on the accounts of American multinationals. 

FINMECCANICA

Finmeccanica +5,4%, in line with the European defense companies, for which new outlets are opening up for their products and services, especially those of territorial control. In Paris Thales +4%. Bae+1,95%. The other industrialists performed well: StM +2,6%, Buzzi +4%, Prysmian +4,2%. 

In Milan, but also throughout Europe, oil companies have risen: the Oil & Gas sector is the best with a 3% increase. Eni scores an increase of 2,7%. Repsol +4% and Total +3% are also highlighted. Tenaris +2,78%. Saipem +1,26%. The CEO Stefano Cao, reiterated that the recovery plan that will not lead to a stew of the group. Marked increases also for Enel (+2,63%) and Enel Green Power (-1,62%), which last night approved the integration project.

FIAT

Fiat Chrysler advances (+2,65%). The car market slows down in Europe but remains positive (+2,7%). The Italian-American group (+7,7%) grows more than the average for the tenth consecutive month. In October, in the 28 EU countries plus the three EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland), the group registered 70.556 cars, 7,7% more than in the same month in 2014. 

The dieselgate weighs on Volkswagen's accounts (+1,19%) which records a 0,8% drop in sales. Ferrari interrupted a streak of three consecutive declines on Wall Street, gaining 1,7% and thus regaining the psychological threshold of 50 dollars. 

MEDIASET

Great leap in Mediaset stock (+3%). At Piazza Affari there is a bet on Vivendi's renewed interest in the pay-TV of the Cologno Monzese group. The Ansa agency claims that Vincent Bolloré's company has already had access to the Premium data room for months. This morning JP Morgan had reaffirmed the prudent approach with a Neutral recommendation and cut the target price to 4,20 euros from the previous 5 euros.

Telecom Italia also rose sharply (-1,8%). Vivendi confirmed that it intends to remain a permanent shareholder of Telecom, that it currently owns 20,11% of the ordinary share capital, that it does not hold savings shares and that it does not act in agreement with the other French shareholder, Xavier Niel who recently took over an important participation through derivatives. Exane BNP Paribas has decided to cut the rating to Neutral from Outperform, target price down to 1,20 euro from 1,30 euro.

BANKS

Among the banks, Intesa +1%, Unicredit +1,6%. The two institutes have started the procedure for the sale of the shares held in the Bank of Italy. Intesa has announced the sale – at the nominal value, coinciding with the book value – of a total quota equal to approximately 5,7% of the share capital of the Bank of Italy, for an equivalent value of approximately 430 million euro. The buyers are: Enpam, Inarcassa, Cassa Forense, Enpaia, Cassa Ragionieri and Banca del Piemonte. Also Unicredit has started the process for the sale of 3,2% of the share capital for approximately 240 million.

Ubi Banca +1,7%. Among the insurance companies, Generali +3%, Cattolica +1,5%.

LUXURY

In Luxury, Yoox Net à Porter +2,3%, Ferragamo +3%.

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