With the take-off of the maneuver, the “P effect” such as privatizations is back in the news. Even if not in the short term. What impact can an announcement like Tremonti's have on the financial market? Is this the right path for a raise? “More than fair, it seems inevitable to me. Although I fear that in financial terms the impact will only be relative”. Thus speaks Gianni Tamburi, director of Tamburi Investment Partners, the merchant bank of medium-sized enterprises, those that continue to shop and grow, as demonstrated by yesterday's purchase by Interpump (one of the "jewels" discovered by Tamburi) of the Emilian Galtech.
But the measure should concern both large companies and local utilities. Is not sufficient?
“The impact of the mini-privatisations, in the eyes of the market, will in any case be negligible. Another matter concerns Eni, Enel or Finmeccanica. In this case, the “political” impact of a state exit would be significant”.
Why?
“I put myself in the shoes of an international investor. In recent days, thanks to reports from Italy, he has noted that a certain Milanese managed the second, third and fourth level appointments of companies of the caliber of Finmeccanica or perhaps even Eni. I'm not surprised if, once this trend is confirmed, a Black Rock or Fidelity manager sells everything and leaves. The exit or, at least, a strong reduction of the weight of the State would be judged in a positive way, after these events”.
Meanwhile, let's deal with a stronger than expected fall in the index. Or not?
“I had factored in a difficult July, between problems in the euro area and uncertainties about the US budget. But I honestly didn't expect such a heavy blow. The responsibility lies in the uncertainties that accompanied the launch of the maneuver until yesterday's accelerator hit. A measure that seemed too timid and dilatory, almost as if the government did not believe in itself."
Now what?
“Nothing irreparable has happened. Indeed, we could speak of a healthy lesson if the political class, headed by the government, drew the right consequences from it. Of course, it is a lesson that has been paid for salty: the increase in yields of Bots, at these levels, has already burned a good half of the maneuver between now and 2014. There is therefore no need to indulge in euphoria. But those who follow a precise strategy, without pursuing short-term speculation, are facing a period of great opportunities".
In short, could August be a month of increases?
“I think so, provided that the negotiations on the federal deficit ceiling in the United States are concluded in a positive way. In this case, there are the conditions for a growth phase of equity. For at least three good reasons”.
Which?
“First of all because all the big players are underweight. On the contrary, the most malignant argue that certain international pressures, starting from the pressing of the rating agencies, arise precisely from the desire to favor the covering and the return to the market of the large operators, after the profits achieved thanks to the overdraft".
Are the prices affordable?
“Here is the second reason for a hike. In this phase, also in relation to the rates which remain low while inflation is under control, the value of companies is undoubtedly sacrificed, as confirmed by market indicators. Of course you need to know how to choose the right companies according to the usual criteria: market leadership, presence on the most dynamic markets and, above all, the credibility of managers and entrepreneurs”.
The price/earnings ratio is, in fact, well below average. Meanwhile, yields compete with fixed income.
“Third reason to focus on equity. At the moment, government bonds are not competitive either in terms of yield or risk protection. This is why equity can head towards a positive season”.
Even for privatizations. League permitting.
