With a final acceleration Business Square conquers the European leadership and closes up by 1,15% at 27.525 basis points, thanks to the jump in Mps +3,33%, oil stocks and cars. They are slightly more cautious Paris + 0,89% London + 0,52% Amsterdam + 0,46% Frankfurt +0,37%. Bucking Madrid -0,83%.
The picture is uncertain, moreover, a Wall Street in the early hours of trading, where the Nasdaq loses 0,6%. In particular, Moderna fell about 5% after announcing delays in its flu vaccine and despite the likelihood that the American giant will make mRNA vaccines available by 2030 for some types of cancer, heart disease and other pathologies. The financial climate in New York is wait-and-see in view of important inflation data that will be released in the next few days (consumer prices tomorrow) and after last week's jobs report which confirmed a solid stability of stars and stripes employment . Furthermore, Friday 14 will see the start of the new season of quarterly reports, from which indications are expected on the state of health of large banks and companies.
Meanwhile they run raw material: Brent rises by about 1% above 85 dollars a barrel and Wti marks +1,28%, 80,76 dollars a barrel. Gold is confirmed above 2000 dollars an ounce.
On the currency market the dollar is declining, while theeuro changes to area 1,09.
Il Bitcoin is over the $30 threshold, recovered after about 10 months on the bets of a Fed now close to ending its cycle of rate hikes
IMF increase the risks to the economy
The state of health of the economy remains the focus of attention after the tightening implemented for months by many central banks, starting with the Fed, to mitigate inflation. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will show optimism in the press conference that in a few hours will kick off the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Washington. However, the latter claims that the risks for the outlook in the world have significantly increased and "the probability of a difficult landing has increased considerably". There global economic growth, says the IMF, is cooling down due to the risks associated with the volatility of the banking sector, high inflation and rising interest rates. The forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are therefore revised downwards in the quarterly update of the World Economic Outlook, according to which global growth slows down from +3,4% in 2022 to 2,8% in 2023, before recovering to 3% in 2024.
In the euro area, growth went from 3,5% in 2022 to 0,8% in 2023, to return to 1,4% growth in 2024 (+0,1 and -0,2 points compared to the October forecasts ).
The main economy of the bloc, Germany, will end up in recession this year (-0,1%, from the previous +0,1%), to then raise its head again to +1,4% in 2024 (+1,1% previously estimated).
'SItaly things are a little better this year, +0,7% in 2023 (from +0,6% estimated in January), but a little worse next year, to +0,8% from +0,9%.
The trend estimated by the government is similar, even if the numbers are different. In the Def, to the attention of today's Council of Ministers, the 2023 growth target should be at 1% (from +0,6% of the November projections) and in 2024 at +1,4%, from +1,9 %.
Piazza Affari, contrasted utilities awaiting appointments
Oil and automotive stocks stand out in Piazza Affari e Mount Paschi which is queen, in an overall more timid banking sector. Well Saipem +3,32%, on which Berenberg raised the target price to 2 euros from the previous 1,45. In the automotive sector Stellantis stands out +3,09% and in the industry Interpump +2,98%.
The lower part of the list is inhabited by some utilities, including Terna -0,93%, while signals on the renewal of top management are also expected from the CDM. Risk concerns, among others, the leadership of giants such as Enel + 0,94% Eni + 1,8, Leonardo + 1,06% Post + 1,17%.
Spreads up
The secondary appears stable, with rates for the 4-year BTP remaining over 4,09% (+2,26%), while the yield on the Bund of the same duration is indicated at XNUMX% at the end, for one spread to 183 basis points (+1,08%).
