“The battle is not over yet on rates. But we will win." Christine Lagarde This is how she said goodbye last week from the Europlus assembly in Frankfurt. It is unlikely that the president of the ECB and her colleague Jerome Powell we can get away with such generic statements if on Thursday the data confirms that November inflation is in sharp decline both in the euro area and in the USA. Of course, even the great ones sometimes make mistakes. Or they are not believed. “One of my children – Lagarde herself confessed when speaking to the students”. – He wanted to invest, against my advice, almost everything he had in cryptocurrencies. And he lost what he had." THE markets, at the moment, they don't show off euphoria. Indeed, waiting for the rain of purchases of Cyber Monday, they prepare for aprudent opening of the price lists, before the long-awaited year-end rally.
To advise caution is the trend of Asian markets, China in the lead. Hong Kong Hang Seng -0,3%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges -0,7%. Taiwan Taiex -0,7%.
Real estate companies are down after the latest developments in the housing and brick and mortar crisis. Chinese authorities said they had opened a criminal investigation into the money management business of Zhongzhi Enterprise, the financial company also active in lending, revealed in recent days a shortfall of 36,4 billion dollars.
I profits of Chinese industrial companies they increased 2,7% from a year ago in October. For the first 10 months of 2023, profits fell 7,8% compared to the previous year.
Inflation rears its head in Japan
Also declining Tokyo -0,5%. In October, prices for business services rose 2,3% year-over-year, the strongest increase in more than three decades. Tonight's data casts doubt on forecastsinflation trend issued by the Bank of Japan. The yen/dollar cross rises to 149.
European markets close to highs
Le European stock markets open lower, Ftse Mib, -0,26%. EuroStoxx50 Futures -0,3%. The Ftse Mib index in Milan closed up 0,7% on Friday.
The Eurostoxx 50 and Eurostoxx 600 indices managed to marginally touch their three-month highs thanks to the push from Energy and Media.
THEIbex index of the Spanish stock exchange went up new highs from February 2020; French Cac 40 at two-month highs; Dax German at the highest since the end of August; Ftse-MIB of Piazza Affari (29.235) approximately two percentage points away from the tops of the last 15 years.
The Ifo index is out today. Maneuvers on the bund
In the sights of investors this week there will also be theGerman inflation, Italian producer prices, inflation data from Italy and the Eurozone.
Today at 10:00, theIfo index of expectations for Germany it likely rose to 85,8 this month, from 84,7 in October.
Il bond market it starts again from a ten-year US Treasury at 4,46%, a ten-year Bund at 2,61% from 2,56% the day before, a ten-year BTP at 4,38% from 4,31%.
The slight rise in yields in the euro area can be explained by the effects of Germany's decision to suspend the constitutional norm again relating to maximum debt and with a couple of macro data, slightly above expectations.
Governing Council members agreed at their last meeting in October that most indicators of underlying inflation appear to have passed their peak and continue to decline.
Wall Street, capital towards ETFs
A Wall Street, Friday's half-session closed with the S&P500 unchanged, +1% is the weekly balance. The benchmark US stock market has gained 8,7% since the beginning of the month, +11%. Nasdaq. The investors are exposing themselves to risk: The Wall Street Journal reports that the Invesco QQQ ETF on the Nasdaq 100 recorded record inflows in the week ending November 13. But there is also another record, that of short and very short-term monetary funds: quasi-cash instruments have reached 5.700 billion dollars in assets.
The Brazil miracle continues, gold moves upwards
Continues to stand outBrazilian Bovespa index, which yesterday closed up 0,65% on new tops since July 2021, extending the 2023 performance to +21,0%, among the best in the world. It is heading towards its fifth positive week in a row.
I world markets record the fourth positive week in a row, an event that has not occurred since August 2022. Among the main factors driving the rally is also therisk mitigation of explosion of the conflict in the Middle East, thanks to the entry into force in Gaza of the four-day truce between Hamas and Israel.
in the night thegold rose to $2.009,7 an ounce waiting for some more convincing ideas to deepen the trend of a further easing of interest rate tensions.
Oil falling, gas rising again
Brent oil falling around 80 dollars when trading reopens. In a scenario of high volatility. The postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to November 30 has raised a series of hypotheses, not least that producers are arguing a lot about maintaining/extending the cuts. In the meantime, global demand slows and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, rising 8,7 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 17.
Il EU gas it rose by +5% to 46,80 euros/mwh and could close the first positive week after five consecutive downwards. The temperature in some areas of Europe they are dropping dramatically and this should cause a increased demand, but inventories are at record levels.
Eni/Generali. Targets are rising
To follow Monte Paschi Bank. It has been postponed to Monday 11 December ruling of the Court of Appeal on Alessandro Profumo and Fabrizio Viola. He should have expressed his opinion today on the first instance judgment when the two managers were at the top of the Sienese bank. They had been found guilty at first instance for providing incorrect information on the real state of bank accounting since 2008 (Santorini and Alexandria). The two managers had been at the helm of the bank since 2012, therefore, after Vigni and Mussari, who were acquitted in the Court of Cassation because the same charge did not exist.
Eni: Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with Attractive/Equalweight rating and target price at $36,4.
Generali, Barclays raises the target price to 19,5 euros.
Intesa Sanpaolo, Jefferies raises the target price to 3,90 euros.
Erg has signed an industrial agreement with STM.
Tim will receive around 700 million euros following the green light from Infratel's board of directors to advance payments for the 1GB Italy tender and those for the 5G tender, according to sources close to the situation. Open Fiber will receive, for the first tender, 540 million.
Updated 11:05am November 27, 2023
