Business Square puts an end to the negative trail and today finds the plus sign again, favored by the general climate, after a partially disappointing report on US jobs and thanks to the rebound in bank stocks. The Ftse Eb is the best among the main European stock exchanges and closes with a gain of 0,99% at 27.778 basis points, ahead of the Dax of Frankfurt +0,40% and at Cac 40 of Parisi +0,42%. They stay in the red Madrid -0,37% and London -0,33%, Amsterdam is flat. Overseas Wall Street, after a weak start, is moving close to parity (DJ-0,1%, Nasdaq +0,3%) as investors weigh the June private employment data to estimate the Fed's next moves.
US work slows down, unemployment falls, wages grow
According to the US Bureau Of Labor Statistics, the growth ofUS occupation in June slow down more than expected, but the labor market remains saturated, with a declining unemployment rate and strong wage increases continue.
Yesterday the report on private payroll had worried the stock exchanges, because it had turned out to be too good, with results almost double than expected. The alarm was due to the fact that an effervescent job market offers arguments to central bank hawks. Today the most complete report, the one on occupied non-agricultural, shows instead numbers below estimates, at least as regards new jobs, 209 thousand, against expectations of 225-240 thousand, fueling the possibility that, after a rise of 25 basis points in July, the Federal Reserve will be on hold. There unemployment however it drops further to 3,6% (from 3,7%) and average hourly wages rise by 12 cents, or 0,36%, to $33,58; compared to a year earlier, they therefore increased by 4,35%. From whatever angle they look (to assess the health of the economy or to understand how central bankers will think) these numbers are in chiaroscuro.
In any case, “the market – writes Reuters – is now pricing a one in three chance of a further hike in November, down from around 50% before the data was released”.
The dollar weakens, gold shines
The effects of the report on work were not long in coming dollar which, in line with the news, began to weaken against other currencies. at the moment theeuro strengthens by more than half a point and changes around 1,095. To give support for the single currency is also an interview by Christine Lagarde, according to which the ECB will not hesitate to act if there is a simultaneous increase in both corporate margins and wages. “It is important to know whether firms will reduce their margins a bit to meet their employees' expectations of higher wages and to restore some of their purchasing power, which is what has typically happened during previous episodes of high inflation. , or if we will see a double increase: in margins and in wages. A simultaneous increase in both would fuel inflation risks and we will not stand idly by in the face of those risks.
Returning to today's markets: the raw materials shine and spot gold rose by 1,24% to 1933,5 dollars an ounce.
We appreciate the Petroleum: Brent +1,4%, 77,599 dollars a barrel; Wti +1,67%, 73 dollars a barrel.
Piazza Affari, Saipem still in the rally
Favored by the rise in crude oil, the Saipem rally continues. The stock also gained 4,7% today after moving against the trend throughout the week following the promotion to buy by some analysts, including those of Redburn.
Among better blue chips of the day there are also Iveco +3,75%, Finecobank +3,01%, Tenaris +2,64%, Leonardo +2,5%, Stellantis +2,09%.
Le banks raise their heads, after yesterday's losses in particular with Banca Mps +2,51%, Bper +2,7%, Banco Bpm +2,23%, Unicredit +1,97%.
It is at the bottom of the list Amplifon, -1,69%, between profit-taking and disappointments after Intermonte cut its rating; However, Morgan Stanley raised the target price to 31,6 from 31 euros. The market is now awaiting the quarterly results at the end of the month and the Equita broker estimates "organic revenues similar to the first quarter and slightly lower margin in the second quarter".
I rebates they are fractional for Inwit -0,77%, Terna -0,9%, Snam -0,67%.
Positive session for government bonds
The Italian paper recovers some ground after yesterday's reverse and rates are down slightly.
Lo spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds with the same duration, it closed at 165 basis points (-1,72%), with yields respectively indicated at +4,28% and +2,63%.
