Without haste but methodically the spotlight of bond angels, fixed-income traders chasing risky situations. They are moving towards Italy. The return of the ten-year rose to 4,40%, lo spread with the Bund it rose to 175 points. In the background, the public finance difficulties aggravated by the slowdown in the economy. And international agencies do not make discounts: for Bloomberg the deficit/GDP could be in the order of 5 or even 6%, well beyond the achievement of the 4% of GDP target set for 2024. Reuters hypothesizes a potential increase in the spread in the order of 15-20 points in the case of a weak maneuver response. It is in this frame that the countdown begins top of the ECB of next week. And the stock markets, having reached the sixth day of decline in the Stoxx 600 index, are under no illusions.
Milan in deep red, Germany sinks
Opening in red for European Stock Exchanges, the seventh in a row.
Milano -1,54% was yesterday bringing up the rear of the Old Continent.
Frankfurt -0,2%. More confirmations of the economic slowdown have come out. Industrial orders fell more than expected in July. This is shown by the data published today by the Federal Statistical Office. Incoming orders were down 11,7% month on month, seasonally adjusted and calendar adjusted. A Reuters poll of analysts indicated a 4% decline.
Visco. The rate hike is almost over
The outgoing president of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, he told an event that the ECB is close to peaking rates, after which it must stop the cycle of monetary policy tightening. Visco added that monetary conditions must remain sufficiently tight even after peaking rates.
On the contrary, the Dutchman Klaas Knot points out that "the markets underestimate the possibility of a new increase". Slovak Governor Peter Kazimir said the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates next week, perhaps for the last time, as inflation still remains high and inflation expectations are too much above the ECB's target of 2 %.
THEOECD it forecasts growth of 0,9% for the euro area this year and 1,5% next year. Inflation is expected to fall to 5,8% in 2023 and 3,2% in 2024. According to the organization, the ECB will have to continue to raise rates.
Economy goes, Wall Street in the red
A downward opening is also expected for American lists. Futures are down 0,3%.
The good condition of the economy depressed yesterday Wall Street. The increase in bond yields hit the Nasdaq -1,1%. S & P 500-0,7%.
They drive the downside Nvidia e Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), -3%: China has banned civil servants from using iPhones in the office.
The ISM Services index unexpectedly rose to 54,5 points, an improvement from 52,7 in July. Economists expected anything else, the consensus was 52,5. The highs of the last six months of the index show that the economic slowdown highlighted by other data is at least not continuous.
The Beige Book certifies the slowdown in wages
A study by the Chicago Fed claims that the current level of interest rates is sufficient to cause interest rates to fall to 2% over time. The Beige Book, meanwhile, notes that the upward pressure on labor costs is easing.
However, the pressure on real yields is growing. The tension is still growing government bonds, with 20-year yields approaching their cutoff points, ahead of the Sept. 4,29 Fed meeting. The yield on the 4,25-year Treasury Note rose to XNUMX% from XNUMX%.
Il dollar US consolidates on three-month highs, hit yesterday at 1,0703. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the Dollar Index, against a basket of six major currencies (including theeuro) pushed to a six-month high of 105,0 points.
Canada's central bank kept interest rates at 5%, noting that the economy has entered a period of slowing growth.
New slowdown in China: exports -8,8%
New negative signals coming from China. In August the exports they decreased by 8,8% due to the persistence of the trade crisis. Imports also drop -7,3%.
Lists down Hong Kong -1,1% and the CSi 300of Shanghai and Shenzhen –1%.
The other squares are also down. The index Kospithe Seoul Stock Exchange loses 0,5%. Sydney S&P ASX 200 -1%.
India: weak Mumbai, consumption growth accelerates
Mumbai BSE Sensex Index -0,2%. Thanks to the increase in the number of upper-middle income families, the Indian consumer market will become the third largest in the world by 2027, says the consultancy firm BMI in a report cited by CNBC. The report predicts that Indian household per capita spending growth will outpace that of other Asian developing economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, at a rate of 7,8% year-on-year. BMI estimates that retail sales to households will exceed $3.000 trillion, thanks to disposable income rising by 14,6% compound year through 2027. By then, 25,8% of Indian households are projected to reach $10.000 in annual disposable income.
Stay in the spotlight lo yen at 147,70 against the dollar, the lowest since November. The Yen depreciated by more than -12% vs USD in 2023 due to the hyper-accommodative policy chosen by the Central Bank, in stark contrast to the rest of the developed and non-developed world.
Oil still at the top, gas is deflating
Brent is still above $90. The price stabilized at a ten-month high, while stocks of crude may have eased for a fourth straight week as refineries ramped up production in anticipation of peak summer travel demand. The data comes days after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced larger-than-expected supply cuts through the end of 2023. The API shows a week-over-week decline of 5,5 million barrels, from -11,5, 25 mln registered in the week ending August XNUMXth. Under
Il gas The EU ended the session with a drop of almost -10% to 31,10 euro/mWh. The price was deflated by the news that the workers' union of Chevron Australia's LNG plants has postponed the strike: the negotiations continue. The strike scheduled to begin at two major liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants was due to kick off today, but workers are postponing it until 06 on Friday,
Barclays raises Unipol's target, Jp Morgan cuts the banks
Tod’s it closed the first half with an Ebit of 60,3 million euros, more than tripled compared to the same period last year, says a note. The result is much higher than consensus expectations. In the call, the CFO Emilio Macellari said he sees some room for an operating profit and a turnover of 2023 better than the consensus. The manager then said he was confident of having the new creative director for the next collection.
Tim. The decree that provides the Treasury with the resources to participate in the bid for the national telecommunications network will arrive in the next few days, not at the end of the month, as originally expected.
stellantis. The group has certified together with Aramco that 24 Euro 6 engine families of vehicles produced since 2014 (equal to 28 million vehicles on the road) are compatible with the foreseen synthetic fuel formulations, therefore they can use advanced “drop-in” eFuel, without the need for any modification to the powertrain
Intesa Sanpaolo e Bpm bank: JP Morgan cut its target price.Unipol Generali Barclays raise the target price.
