Two days from ECB decisions markets are focused on some positive news. In the afternoon, a day early, it should close early the most important IPO of the year, that of Arm (52 billion initial price): requests exceeded supply five times. Tonight, after a dramatic court session, the real estate Country Garden has obtained from creditors a new postponement for the payment of six expired bonds. Finally, the shock announcement from Tokyo: the new governor Ueda declared that by the end of the year the Bank of Japan will have the elements in hand to close the season of negative rates.
Positive opening in Europe awaiting the Zew index
In the wake of these indications European stock markets opened higher. Yesterday the FtseMib in Milan closed up by 1%, the Dax in Frankfurt by 0,4%. the Italian stock market took off thanks to the rebound in banks, favored by rumors about the revision of the extraordinary tax, and by the rally in oil prices, which rose to period highs. New upward accelerations are expected at the breakthrough of area 30mila, while the first alert threshold to monitor is 27.858 points.
At 11am the most important price sensitive data of the day will be released: the Zew index on the conditions of the German economy. Berlin's difficulties are the main cause of the European slowdown. The European Commission has reduced its estimates for GDP growth in the Eurozone to 0,8%, rather than 1,1% as stated in the spring forecast.
Downward forecasts also for Italy, where growth of 0,9% (from +1,2%) is expected in 2023 and 0,8% in 2024 (from +1,1%), while inflation is estimated at 5,9% in 2023 and to 2,9% in 2024. In light of these data, the Italian government will have to raise the deficit to 4% in order to maintain the availability of 4,5 billion in resources for maneuver. In July industrial production fell by 0,7% compared to June, marking -2,1% on the year
BTP and Bund yields are in tension
The government bond market remains tense, despite widespread signs of a slowdown in the global economy. The enormous amount of primary school placements underway in various countries contributes. Ten-year Treasury at 4,28%. Biennial at 4,98%. In the Eurozone: Waist German at 2,64%. ten-year BTP at 4,38%. The advance continues spread rose to 175 points.
In the meantime, US private companies continue shopping for football teams. But there is no mention of Juventus, after Exor's flat denial. It's time to change your shirt Everton, Liverpool's second team: out of 20 Premier League teams, 10 are US-owned.
Tesla gives wings to the Nasdaq, for Morgan Stanley it is buy
Very lively start to the week yesterday on Wall Street. S&P500 +0,7% to 4.487 points, NASDAQ +1,1% at 13.917 points. THE futures +0,2% signal a positive start to today's session.
She was leading the race Tesla +10%. Morgan Stanley upgraded its recommendation to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target by 60% to $400, the highest among Wall Street brokers. The Dojo supercomputer, designed to train AI models for self-driving cars, could give the electric vehicle maker an “asymmetric advantage” and boost its market capitalization by nearly $600 billion, from $788 billion today, according to one estimate of the broker.
Spotlights also on Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), in view of the presentation of tomorrow's new products. Meanwhile, Apple has renewed its three-year contract with Qualcomm for the supply of chips, indirectly confirming that producing semiconductors at home as promised is proving to be more difficult than expected.
WSJ: consensus for doves rises at the Fed
Dollar slightly retreating from the three-month peak against the euro and from the six-month peak against a basket of six main world currencies. The indiscretions of Nick Timiraos, the authoritative signature of Wall Street Journal on the company's next moves Federal Reserve, note that board members are becoming convinced of the need to Don't raise interest rates next week. The focus is on US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday, which should guide decisions at next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The Yen rebounds, cars fly: Mazda at the top
Currency market in the front row onthe Asian markets after the departure of the governor of the Bank of Japan. The JPY rises +0,85% from the low of almost 10 months after the words of Kazuo Ueda, who stated that the end of the era of negative interest rates BOJ may be close because the BOJ's 2% inflation target is within reach.
Salt also the ten-year yield but tonight the auction of a five-year bond went through without problems. The 2.498 billion yen (seventeen billion dollars) of bonds were issued at 0,291%.
In this context, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closes on the rise +0,8%. Automotive manufacturers are highlighted and, in the aftermath of Tesla's +10% jump, Mazda it reaches the highs of the last twelve months at 1.700 yen.
On the roller coaster ad Hong Kong on real estate securities: start in deep red, then recovery after the default of Country Garden: the stock closes at +5%. The Chinese yuan remained stable at 7,28 against the dollar.
Stock markets are falling South Korea (-0,4%) andAustralia (-0,1%). The stock market opened higher Mumbai, +0,4%, just a whisker away from the historic record. Today in the early afternoon the data on Indian inflation is released.
Oil at the top, inventories falling
Oil is running. The Brent it reached its highest price in 91,45 months at $10 yesterday. There are still repercussions of the decisionSaudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary supply cuts totaling 1,3 million barrels per day through the end of the year. Investors are now awaiting data on US crude oil inventories. They are expected to have declined by about 2 million barrels in the week ending September 8. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2024 forecast for oil demand growth to 1 million barrels per day.
Copper revives, gas flows
The future on the rise Copper +2%, supported mainly by the improvement in data onChinese inflation published over the weekend. The price rebounded from a more than three-week low. China's inflation returned to positive territory in August, while producer prices also fell at a slower pace than seen earlier this year.
Il European Natural Gas it rebounded by +4% to 36 euros/mwh, after the announcement of strikes at the Chevron Australia plants.
Mediobanca, Patrizia Grieco candidate for post-Pagliaro
The negotiations between the top management of Mediobanca and the main shareholder Delfin reportedly stalled over the name of the president. Renato Pagliaro he would be ready to take a step back, he could arrive in his place Patrizia Grieco.
Tim has renewed an industrial collaboration agreement already in place with Open Fiber. The extension of the agreement regarding the gray areas of Italy shows how important the possibilities for collaboration are between the two broadband companies. KKR has started the search for the future head of the company which will merge Tim's fixed network infrastructure, for which a binding offer from the US fund is expected in the coming weeks. Two sources close to the situation told Reuters.
stellantis intends to present a new counter-offer to the United Auto Workers (UAW), after the US union made its proposal yesterday in view of the expiry of the current four-year union agreement on Thursday evening.
Soul Holding the Fitch agency has revised the outlook on the long-term issuer rating to positive from stable, confirming the 'BBB-' rating.
