Climate of cautious confidence on the markets in view of the resumption of negotiations between China and the USA. China's stock markets rallied on reopening after a week's holiday: Shanghai index gains 1,4% despite downturn forecasts for the economy: The Economic Daily, the newspaper controlled by the agency of state Xinhua, wrote that the first quarter gross domestic product may fall to 6%. Hong Kong and Seoul also rose slightly amid modest trading due to the closure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Oil trades at $61,6 a barrel, down 0,7%, the week ended down 1%. WTI was much worse, down by more than 4% in the previous five sessions.
USA PESSIMISTS ABOUT DUTIES
The rise in the dollar, against both the renminbi and the euro, bears witness to the caution of the markets on the eve of the Beijing talks on tariffs. On the US side, pessimism prevails, the Chinese are silent, which is not a good sign. In this climate, Thursday 14, Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lightizer will celebrate Valentine's Day in Beijing, where they will meet Deputy Prime Minister Liu He in an attempt to unblock the negotiations on tariffs and intellectual rights before tariffs kick off threatened by Washington starting March 1st.
The next day, Friday, the deadline will expire to avoid a new stop to the activities of the federal government. Also in this case the road is uphill. For now, having set aside the issue of the Wall on the Mexican border, the negotiations between the Democrats and Donald Trump recorded a new setback yesterday, again on the issue of immigration.
THE IMF REWARDS THE FED'S TURNOVER, EURO AT 1,132
On the macro front, the most important US data concerns inflation, one of the elements we will look more carefully into the prospect of a possible resumption of the upward trend in interest rates, to be excluded for now. We will know after the interventions during the week Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, and Esther George of Kansas City. Even the IMF promotes the US choice to stop the rise in interest rates.
Macroeconomic data contributed last week to bend the euro, which fell by 1,2%, this morning the cross is at 1,132.
BANKITALIA UNDER FIRE: TRIA'S BLEND DEFENSE
Piazza Affari restarts after a difficult week, marked by new, heavy signals coming from the economic situation but above all from the sprawling attacks on the independence of the Bank of Italy and Consob launched by the yellow-green front. Economy Minister Giovanni Tria sided with the Bank of Italy. But, frightened by so much freedom of judgement, the minister immediately sent his spokesperson to clarify it was a purely institutional, obvious and even banal statement. Tria's words "are not directed against anyone".
Today the dl Carige arrives in the Chamber in the Chamber.
TODAY THE EUROGROUP, TOMORROW THE BOT AUCTION
In this surreal climate, in which the rupture of diplomatic ties with France stands out, Italy is present today at the Eurogroup, the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area. For the occasion, Tria will meet the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi.
In the spotlight, the bond market on the eve of the mid-month auctions. It begins tomorrow with tomorrow's offer of 12-month Treasury bonds for 6,5 billion euros. On Wednesday, the Treasury will offer medium and long-term securities up to a maximum of 4,5 billion euros in auction. 3-year Btp for an amount between 1,75 and 2,25 billion and 7-year between 1,75 and 2,25 billion euros. The ministry announced that "the BTp auction on the long-term maturity scheduled for 13 February 2019 will not take place" thanks to the recent success of the placement of 8 billion 30-year bonds.
But beware of letting your guard down: the markets are, in fact, migrating towards low-risk assets. The yield on the 0,07-year Bund fell to 2016%, the lowest since November 3. Today, 2,98 billion Bunds will be offered on a semi-annual basis. Meanwhile, interest rates in Italy have risen, coinciding with the deterioration in the performance of the economy. The BTP closed the week at 291%, the spread widened to 283 basis points, from XNUMX yesterday: for the ten-year period it was the worst week since October.
THE MEDIOLANUM ACCOUNTS, DECISIVE HOURS FOR ASTALDI
The end of the week was also in the red for the share price which, from Wednesday's peak of 20.005 points, left the beauty of 735 basis points on the ground.
The parade of quarterly reports continues in this climate. The accounts of Recordati and various credit institutions will be announced: Banca Ifis, Mediolanum, do Bank, Popolare di Sondrio.
Decisive days to prevent the second group of constructions from falling into extraordinary administration. Tomorrow the group should sign the agreement with Fortress for a loan of 75 million. The only offer left on the table, that of Salini, should also arrive by Wednesday.
WALL STREET LOOKS AT COCA COLA AND NVIDIA
On Wall Street, the spotlight will be on Nvidia's accounts, after the profit alarm launched by the champion of chips dedicated to 5G and on Activision Blizzard, another video game giant this time back from the profit warning. Balance time also for John Deere, a sensitive sensor of commercial tensions, on a par with Bombardier and Airbus. The accounts of Cisco, Aig, Crédit, Coca-Cola are also on the way. Kraft and hotel giants Hyatt and Hilton.
In Europe, the numbers of Airbus, Nestlé and Michelin and, among the banks, Crédit Suisse hold the table. In Asia, pay attention to Nissan's balance sheet, pending the redefinition of relations with Renault.
