Christine Lagarde, like Brigitte Bardot, believes that only fools never change their minds. And she is not stupid. And so, after arguing at the time that the ECB shouldn't deal with spreads (causing a disaster) and having underestimated the problem in the institute's last press conference (another collapse), the ECB president yesterday solemnly reaffirmed to Parliament European the commitment to "act against the risks of fragmentation", or the risk of unjustified spreads among the countries of the Eurozone. That was enough yesterday for the securities of Italian banks to recover part of the losses incurred on the wave of sales which do an injustice to the work of restructuring and strengthening the system, much more solid than ten years ago.
The challenge between hawks and doves is still uncertain
However, the game of the spread still remains to be played. Within a very short time, that is, before the ECB's annual meeting in Sintra in Portugal next weekend, to silence the rumors about a rift in the central bank, which is very dangerous these days. The wait, therefore, will be short. But there are still many knots to untie, starting from conditions under which purchases of the securities of countries under attack will be triggered.
Bunds and bonds are on the rise. Good debut for the Btp Italia
It is bond markets, not just European ones, that are most agitated after last week's volatility storms. Yesterday the yield of Waist it was up 10 basis points to 1,74%. Salt too the BTP to 3,65% (against 3,58% on Friday): the spread closes at 192 points. Limit the damage for now the French Oat, whose yield rises to 2,29%, for a spread with the Bund of the same duration increasing to 56 basis points (+4,38%). Macron's problems are destined to speed up the work of the ECB.
In this context, a positive note comes from the retail market. It was not obvious, in the midst of strong tensions on the spread and inflation, a positive take-off of the new Btp Italia: 3,417 billion collected in the first day. The new security offers a minimum guaranteed annual return of 1,6%, to which inflation and a loyalty bonus must be added for those who hold it for four years and then until maturity in June 2030. At this moment, calculate Intermonte, the reference inflation future for the BTP is at 2,9%, which brings us to a gross annual return of 4,5%.
Wall Street is 90% expecting a 0,75% hike. Powell speaks tomorrow
The rate hike wave continues on other markets. This morning the Treasury Notes in ten years it rises to 3,28%, +6 basis points. The US market is 90% expecting a 75 basis point rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Tomorrow and Thursday Jerome Powell will hold hearings in both houses of Congress.
Judging by futures trends, equity markets appear to be heading for a positive start, with plans to put past week's wounds behind them. But the mood is not the best. The Wall Street Journal this morning welcomes operators returning from the long weekend with a ruthless analysis: from 1950 to today, after having recorded losses of more than 15%, in 11 cases out of 17 it has only restarted upwards after the easing of Fed policies.
Rising opening for the Eurostoxx index. Milan +0.99%
The EuroStoxx index future is up 0,5%. Yesterday, orphaned by Wall Street, the European markets experienced a bullish session. Business Square, thanks to the banks, rises by one percentage point, again above 22 thousand, despite the detachment of the coupon of seven blue chips (including Leonardo). They are more toned Madrid (+ 1,72%), Frankfurt (+ 1,06%) and Amsterdam (+0,89%). Outside the eurozone it shines London (+ 1,5%).
Positive too Paris, despite the uncertainties caused by the electoral defeat of President Macron. The stock market holds up (+0,64%), thanks to the leap of Renault (+9,54%) after the promotion of Jefferies.
Asia interrupts the negative streak, but Covid returns
Stock markets in Asia Pacific are all positive this morning: the Bloomberg APACD index, down eight times in the last ten sessions, is up 1,7%. Nikkei of Tokyo +2,2%, Hang Seng by Hong Kong +1,4%, Kospi of Alone +1,2%. BSE Sensex index of Mumbai +1,2% at the start of the session.
Stock markets are up less China, where mass tests on Covid 19 have been ordered in the high tech district of Shenzen. There is also an outbreak of infections in Macau. CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai e Shenzen + 0,5%.
Bitcoin stable around 20 thousand dollars.
Oil and gas still on the rise
Il Petroleum WTI it is up 1,5% to 111,5 dollars a barrel. The TTF gas of Europe yesterday reached 124 euros per megawatt/hour: The Sole24Ore reports that the government, already grappling with an increasingly worrying drought, could declare a state of alert on gas storage, to be filled quickly, if one does not want to run the risk of reaching winter with minimum reserves.
