The markets are heading towards Christmas in no particular order, without strong ideas for better or for worse, confirming the flat trend of 2015: the S&P 500 index is down by 1,8% compared to last January. The effect of the US rate hike has already faded, as various signals demonstrate.
1) A surprise the dollar is starting to close the worst month since April, with the dollar index down 1,8%. The euro recovers positions above 1,09, but a recovery is also underway among the emerging countries (+1,2% the Indonesian rupiah). The reason? “The markets are already thinking about the Fed's next moves – comments Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock – Given the fragile situation of the global economy, there are no more than two modest upward adjustments for 2016”.
2) It helps to curb enthusiasm the weakness of oil prices, depressed by the increase in inventories and production. Crude oil production is close to record highs, with new barrels set to enter the market from countries such as Iran, the United States and Libya and prices set to cap the biggest monthly drop in 7 years.
3) In Europe, then, it weighs the Spain effect, new mortgage on the German-style march of the Eurozone. the hood ofuncertainty after the confused outcome of the general elections yesterday conditioned in the final all the European Stock Exchanges and not only that of Madrid. A robust flow of sell-offs hit the market in the last 20 minutes of trading, pushing the index closes into negative territory, which up to that point had marked moderately large increases. The FtseMib index of Milan lost 0,6%, the Paris Stock Exchange lost 0,8%, Frankfurt -0,7%. For Madrid, the closure photographs a drastic drop of 2,7%.
On the bond market, the spread between the BTP and the ten-year Bund remained virtually unchanged at 103 basis points, while the spread between the Bonos and the Bund rose to 121 basis points.
BEIJING PREPARES FOR CUT IN RATES
The Christmas present could come from China: the Xinhua agency has sent the signal that the authorities are ready for "proactive and flexible" measures, i.e. a (modest) drop in rates that will help bring GDP growth back to 7% . But the Stock Exchanges are not exalted for now: Shanghai -0,1%, Shenzhen (buried by a gigantic tide of mud) rises by 0,3%. Tokyo also opened weakly: Toshiba, for the second consecutive day, fell by 12%.
STAR WARS DOESN'T THRILL WALL STREET
Day with the plus sign for Wall Street, despite the drop in energy: Dow Jones +0,7%, S&P 500 +0,8%. The Nasdaq advanced 0,9%. The price lists were pushed by Microsoft and Apple, with increases of more than 1%. Health sector stocks were also on the positive side: over 6 million Americans joined Obamacare's health programs.
Still down, for the fourth day in a row, Walt Disney (-1,5%). "Star Wars: The Force Awakens", the latest episode of the saga created by George Lucas, shattered the box-office records: 512 million dollars in the first weekend, despite the fact that China is still missing from the appeal, where the film is not still out. The cold response of the market depends on the subscriber crisis of the ESPN sports network.
THUD OF THE SPANISH BANKS, THE ABI SEES (ALMOST) PINK
The Spain effect affected the banking sector, causing the decline of Santander (-3,9%) and BBVA (-3,8%). Yesterday in Piazza Affari the main banks closed positively: Unicredit rose by 0,2%, Intesa +0,3%, but sales continue to drip on MontePaschi (-0,8%). The Popolari are also in negative ground: Bper (-1,2%), Banco Popolare (-1,1%).
Positive tones in the Abi forecast report. The reversal of the negative cycle for the sector will give the first signals as early as 2016, with the decline in the stock of non-performing loans, while the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans will reverse the negative trend from 2017 for the first time since 2008.
Weak asset management: Azimut -1,30%, Mediolanum -0,87%. The Stability law contains rules that make tax optimization maneuvers more complicated: by relocating activities to European countries with low taxation, Italian companies are able to keep tax outlays low.
Poste Italiane, since yesterday in the FtseMib basket, has fallen by 0,6%. Contrasted by the insurance companies: Generali -0,8%, UnipolSai +1,1%.
ENDESA BRAKES ENEL, OIL DOWN
Spain effect also for Enel (-1,6%) which falls despite the signing of the contract for the sale of the stake held in Slovenske Elektrarne, equal to 66% of the share capital, for 750 million. However, the share suffered due to the group's strong exposure to Spain: the subsidiary Endesa lost 4,7% on the Madrid Stock Exchange.
The extraordinary volatility of crude oil weighed on oil: in Paris Total lost 1,6%, Eni fell by 1,1%, Tenaris -0,6%.
PROMOTED RCS: NO INCREASE, PAYMENT SITE
Day of glory for Rcs Mediagroup, up 12% afterwards the presentation of the business plan. The stock was supported by the declarations of CEO Laura Cioli, who ruled out a capital increase. Corriere della Sera will be the first Italian newspaper to charge for online content through a "metered paywall" starting from the end of January. This is paid access after reading a certain amount of articles for free. The 2016-2018 plan envisages total investments of 75/80 million euros, of which 25 million in 2018. No details on redundancies linked to the expected gross reduction of 40 million in labor costs.
Mondadori (+2,2%) has renegotiated the credit lines (515 million) which will also be used to finance the purchase of Rcs libri.
PININFARINA FLIES, MONCLER WORST BLUE CHIP
Pininfarina flies (+21%), at a value equal to 3 times the price of the tender offer announced by Mahindra&Mahindra (1,1 euro). It is now obvious that the offer will be deserted. The Indians, moreover, have never talked about delisting.
Among the industrials, closing just below parity for Finmeccanica (-0,1%) and FiatChrysler (-0,2%). Buzzi lost 1,2%. Fincantieri (-2,6%) signed a contract with Mazagon Dock Limited (Mdl), one of the most important Indian shipyards, controlled by the Ministry of Defense and specialized in the construction of military and offshore units. A sign that relations with New Delhi are improving, with the prospect of finally resolving the situation of the marines.
Lastly, yesterday was a decidedly negative day for luxury stocks: Moncler was the worst blue chip with a drop of 4%, Ferragamo -1,9%, Luxottica -2%.
