After Friday's bombs, the war of words between the US and Russia has resumed. Vladimir Putin spoke of the "risk of chaos" for international relations, Donald Trump reiterated that there will be other initiatives against the use of chemical weapons by Damascus. But the markets are not afraid of an escalation.
MINI-CREAT IN CHINA WAITING FOR THE GDP
Calm reigns on Asian stocks, currencies and oil this morning. The Tokyo Stock Exchange marks a modest increase (+0,4%), in line with Australia and futures on the S&P index (+0,2%). Chinese lists are weak, but the mini-crunch on short-term credit decided by the Beijing authorities counts more than Syria. The Csi index loses 1,6%, in Hong Kong the Russian Rusal plunges (-21%), hit by the prospect of new sanctions on Moscow's aluminium. South Korea's stock is flat, India's loses 0,7%.
The first estimate on Chinese GDP will be announced today, expected to rise between 6,6-6,7%
CRUDE BELOW 72 DOLLARS, US PRODUCTION BOOM
Brent oil is down by 1% to 71,8 dollars a barrel, but the setback, after last week's +8%, does not seem to be due to the fallout from the military action against the Syrian government, but to the strong increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States: last week, the drilling rigs in operation reached 815, the highest since March of 2015.
IMF AND WTO ALARM ABOUT WAR OF DUTIES
Under pressure from missiles and tariffs, the spring session of the Monetary Fund and the World Bank opens today in Washington. On the eve of the alarm came from the WTO, the world trade organization. The tensions, in fact, have already produced the first effects: the growth of trade slows down (to 4,4 from the previous 4,7%), confidence falls and the impact is reflected in the growth rate of the global economy (+3,9, XNUMX% according to the latest survey).
Tomorrow Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe will talk about commerce, for the second time a guest at the president's resort in Mar-a-Lago in Florida. At stake are the duties on aluminum and steel raised by the USA.
US CONSUMPTION DATA TODAY, BEIGE BOOK ON WEDNESDAY
On the macro front, the spotlights are on in the USA on the trend in consumption and on the Empire Manufacturing index, which measures the trend of industry in the North East. The Beige Book will arrive on Wednesday, the most complete periodic analysis of the situation in the American economy , one of the indicators most followed by the Fed pending decisions on rate hikes.
Some of the most authoritative members of the board will speak during the week: John Williams from San Francisco, William Dudley from New York, Loretta Mester from Cleveland, Raphael Bostic from Atlanta and Randall Quarles.
COMING TO WALL STREET 60 QUARTERLY
After the "varnish" on Friday (JP Morgan -2,5% despite record profits) the earnings season comes alive. Data from 60 S&P 500 companies will be released between today and Friday. We start this morning with Bank of America (accounts announced before the start of the session) to continue, among the banks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Netflix numbers arriving with closed stock market.
MOODY'S GIVES MADRID STOCKS A BOOST
On the Eurozone front, the markets will today take note of the promotion of Spain's rating by Moody's: Baa1, outlook stable, in addition to that of Fitch and Standard & Poor's, both A-. The Catalan crisis is no longer scary.
BTP ATTACKING THE CRISIS. VISCO'S LECTIO TODAY
In Italy eyes still focused on political framework, after the black smoke of the first two rounds of consultations, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella could play the card of the exploratory mandate.
Governor Ignazio Visco will today hold a lectio magistralis entitled "banks after the crisis" at the University of Tor Vergata
A day of meetings for Piazza Affari, already focused on the long-distance duel between Elliott and Vivendi in view of the duel between the Telecom Italia shareholders on April 24th. The meeting of Vivendi partners in Paris on Thursday should be mentioned.
MEETINGS FOR MONCLER, PIAGGIO AND ROME
Today the calendar includes the assembly of Moncler, one of the most followed stocks. The agenda includes, in addition to the approval of the 2017 accounts, the launch of a free increase and a buyback. Also scheduled are the meetings of Piaggio (approval of accounts and buyback) and of As Roma (capital reduction due to losses).
The Equita shareholders' meeting (approval of the financial statements, buyback and free capital increase) will vote on the transition from the Aim list to the MTA market.
PIAZZA AFFARI STARTS AGAIN FROM PIÙ 6
The Coima Res dividend is on the way (€0,18 on the balance). Eni's Investor Day will be held in Milan on Wednesday. Between the Tod's (Thursday) and Atlantia (Friday) meetings. Piazza Affari closed the week with a gain of 1,5%. Since the beginning of the year I earn is 6,7%.
