“At the moment, new generalized lockdowns are not envisaged, but if they become necessary targeted restrictions on production activities and travel, would still result non-negligible consequences both on the economic cycle and on the production structure, already affected by the past recession”. The warning comes from Joseph Pisauro, president ofParliamentary Budget Office, who spoke on Monday before the House and Senate Budget Committees to comment on the update note to the Economic and Financial Document.
As for the "short and medium-term evolution - continues Pisauro - the Italian economy appears to be subject to still very large risks, overall on the downside. The adverse scenarios are mainly attributable to the evolution of the pandemic, in Italy and abroad, as well as to financial tensions". Especially as regards the Debt/GDP ratio, the PBO believes that it will be higher than that elaborated by the Nadef for the entire 2020-23 period. As regards the dynamics, after an initial decline in 2021, the debt-to-GDP ratio would start to rise again as early as 2022. At the end of the three-year period, the ratio would be about 6 percentage points higher than in the Nadef programmatic scenario.
On the same line too Bankitalia. In another hearing on Nadef, Eugenio Gaiotti, chief economist of Via Nazionale, confirms that “a significant and broad recovery” was recorded in the third quarter, underlining however that “the prospects remain extremely uncertain the risk that the pandemic will continue to affect the confidence of households and businesses or that global demand will remain weak is significant".
Il debt, on the other hand, remains "sustainable", but "we believe that keeping the debt at levels of 150% is very dangerous because it exposes it to shock", continues Gaiotti.
To relaunch the business in the medium-long term, Pisauro believes "a significant requalification of the public administration is indispensable towards greater capacity for identifying growth-oriented interventions, for planning and implementing expenditure, for collaboration between the various levels of government. Basically, a greater capacity to absorb European funds, also through adequate structures for monitoring the execution and implementation of spending”.
Gaiotti, on the other hand, underlines the need for an "effective use of the funds from the Ngeu program (the Recovery Fund, ed) with targeted interventions, to be implemented without waste and promptly". We need "a significant effort aimed at increasing participation in the labor market and the employment opportunities offered by our economy".
