SCOTLAND AND FED SCARE THE BAGS. BANKS UNDER FIRE. TELECOM AND ANSALDO ON THE SCUDI. THERE IS NO APPLE EFFECT
New menacing clouds are looming on the horizon: a report from the San Francisco Fed, Janet Yellen's workshop of ideas, suggests that the rise in US rates is closer than expected by the Stock Exchange. The study finds that the market underestimates the central bank's indications on future increases in the cost of money. Hence the feeling that strong signals could arrive at the next meeting on 17 September to prepare the stock markets for the turnaround in December, the first meeting of the Fed in which a press conference is scheduled.
No less importantly, the 'Scottish question', already snubbed by the markets, is finally gaining center stage as the potential consequences of a 'Yes' to the independence referendum become clearer. Last but not least, the support for independence pushes in Catalonia.
The effect of the tensions is a new strengthening of the dollar: the euro has dropped below 1,29, the yen trades above 106. The rates on ten-year T Bonds have risen above 2,50%. All the Asian Stock Exchanges fell: Tokyo -0,15%, Shanghai -0,7%. Most massive losses in Hong Kong -1,90%.
The American Stock Exchange moves away from the highs reached on Friday: the Dow Jones index loses 0,57%, the S&P500 0,65% (at 1988 level) and the Nasdaq 0,87%. The “historic” launch of new products Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), -0,38%, i.e. the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus with a giant screen plus the iWatch, the watch that combines navigator, payment tools as well as health and fitness control functions (estimated price between 350 and $400) had little impact on the market.
SCOTTISH SHOWER ALSO FOR BUSINESS PLACE
In the Old Continent, at least for the moment, the ECB effect has ended. In Europe, London -0,1%, Paris -0,5% and Frankfurt -0,4%. Madrid's loss was heavier: -1,3% while the Spanish ten-year yield rose by 11 basis points to 2,19%. The fear that Catalonia, driven by pro-independence drives, could be tempted by the example of Scotland influenced the mood of the Iberian market.
The strengthening of the dollar caused the prices of commodities to rise with negative repercussions on securities in the mining and energy sectors. The Milan Stock Exchange closed the session down: the Ftse Mib index lost 0,7% to 21.149 points.
MOODY'S CUTS THE RATING ON BRAZIL
On the Emerging Markets front, the warning on Brazil should be noted, one month before the elections. Moody's cut its outlook for the country from "stable" to "negative", currently with a Baa2 rating. Moody's estimates GDP growth below 1% this year and below 2% next. In the first half of 2014, Brazil fell into a technical recession with a 0,6% GDP contraction in the second quarter. The Bovespa index is unchanged, yesterday it closed down by 2,5%.
12-MONTH BOT AUCTION: NEW RECORD EXPECTED
The spread between the BTP and the Bund widened to 137 basis points and the domestic 2,38-year rate rose to 117%. It is the effect of the tensions on peripheral securities, particularly acute on the Spanish Bonos (the spread has grown to 9 bp) in reaction to a possible contagion effect on Catalonia. The referendum should be held on November XNUMX in the Barcelona region but the conditional is a must because the vote is pending an unconstitutionality ruling.
Nervousness shouldn't stop 12-month Bots from hitting a new low at auction this morning. Operators expect a gross yield for the annual BoT in the 0,22% area (0,28% in the August placement). The issue cut contributes to supporting the security: the offer of 8,25 billion is lower than the amount due (9,8 billion).
MPS BLACK JERSEY, RUNNING WITH SAILS
Pending the launch of the ECB loans, the music does not change: data from the Bank of Italy show that in July the disbursements of loans by Italian institutions were still declining (-1,4% after the -1,3 % in June), non-performing loans rose instead. In Piazza Affari, the banks are almost all down, only saving Banca Popolare di Milano + 1%.
The worst blue chip of the day was Monte dei Paschi, with a decrease of 4,5%. The uncertainty about the outcome of the ECB exams weighs on the institute. The rest of the sector was also negative: Understanding -1% Unicredit -1,2% Banco Popolare -1,4% Mediobanca -1,7% Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna -3,6%.
On the other hand, new confirmations are arriving on the good state of health of managed savings. Azimuth +1,1%. The group closed the month of August with positive net inflows of 262 million euro. Mediolanum +0,6%. In August, the Berlusconi family subsidiary raised 400 million euros, including 436 million in funds and management.
ANSALDO AT THE TOP, TELECOM STILL DANCING SAMBA
Three lightning bolts lit up the Piazza Affari scene:
- Finmeccanica it closed up by 1,6% after having touched 3% during the morning. The star of Ansaldo Sts + 6,5% the best stock of the day after the news of an offer presented by the consortium China Cnr Corporation-Insigma for the railway signaling company and for Ansaldo Breda. Immediately after the passage of the 40% controlled by the public holding company, the takeover bid on the listed company would start.
- Telecom Italy gains 3% to 0,914 euro after reaching an intraday high of 0,93 euro. From the lows of mid-August below 0,80 euro, the stock has rebounded by 17%. The rise is linked to the big maneuvers on Tim Brasil. During the night America Movil received confirmation of the plan to present an offer on the Brazilian subsidiary. Three telephony operators, Oi, Claro and Vivo, would be ready to join forces to take over the subsidiary of the Italian group. Once acquired, Tim Brasil would be split up among the three operators.
- Fiat rises by 1,7% on the eve of the Ferrari board of directors which could end with the exit of Luca Montezemolo replaced in the presidency by Sergio Marchionne.
Bad day instead for Industrial Driver's License -3,5%: one of the US distributors has launched a profit alert. Also St Microelectronics falls 3% after a competitor's profit warning. Pirelli -1%: JP Morgan cut recommendation to Neutral from Overweight.
GOLDMAN SIZE SNAM. THE MILAN FAIR DOESN'T STOP
Snam Rete Gas weakens towards the end and loses almost two percentage points to 4,442 euros. Goldman Sachs has decided to cut the Sell recommendation from Neutral, confirming the target price at 4,4 euros. American analysts do not see growth and fear that the sharp decline in yields could have repercussions on stocks that operate under regulated tariffs. A2A + 1,2% Enel -0,1%. Eni -0,5%. Among the mid/smalla caps, it stands out Fiera Milano +3,4%, for the fourth consecutive rise.
