on European growth scenarios it will not only be the chaotic effects of the duties introduced by Trump II that will be blamed. In fact, a complicated “two-level” game in the Eurozone: one note influenced from outside (i duties) which will most likely force us to review international trade agreements and alliances and an internal continental reorganization, the result of a general reconsideration of the objectives of the European industry. The most urgent is raggiungere in a reasonable time one partial military and defense autonomy, an objective that presupposes a profound reorganisation of European economic policy. The European Commission has already presented in recent weeks the White Paper on European Defence (“Get ready for 2030”), which is to be added to an ambitious – as it is defined in Brussels – package of measures that will provide “financial levers to Member States to stimulate increased investment in defence capabilities”.
EU: Industry and technology become priorities again
In the words used by Ursula von der Leyen it is important to underline two important points: industrial base e support for technology, which have returned to the top of the community agenda after the years in which the objectives of the green transition had prevailed (“We must focus on purchases in Europe because this means strengthening the European industrial and technological defence base and stimulating innovation”). “The main the driving force of defense spending is the public sector, which can cascade activate private investments as well. However, the public activation cannot be only domestic, it will have to involve the entire European defense economy. The risk, otherwise, is that the European plan feed the various national industries individually, without the benefits of economies of scale, technology exchange and closer cooperation between leading companies in the sector. The war industry requires technological levels which can only be found by cooperating at a European level. This will be the real test bench of the Union, a very complicated path because to date a common defense policy is still missing European,” observes the economist Donato Iacobucci, president of the Italian Society of Industrial Economics and Policy (Hedges) and editor of the recent volume “Contemporary Italian Industry: Between Decline and Restructuring” (Carocci).
The crux of spending on research and development
Il European White Paper presents policies to Member States for fill the gaps in terms of technological capacity and to recreate “a solid industrial base in the defense sector” with a view to long-term strategic independence. “In some areas theItaly has world leadership positions – continues Professor Iacobucci – in the defense industry, I think of companies like Leonardo or the Fincantieri shipbuilding industry. There are some Italian excellence which also operate in the aerospace sector. When talking about a partial industrial reconversion towards the defence sector, the first obstacle to overcome is undoubtedly the our country's spending capacity on research and development: Italy spends about 1,4% of its GDP against a European average of 3%. Percentages that reflect the limited room for maneuver in our public finances”.
Technological diversification as a way of survival
According l 'Stockholm International Peace Institute (Sipri), the continental arms manufacturing companies that have maintained their place in the top hundred I am the pan-European Airbus, Leonardo in Italy, Thales in France, Rolls Royce in the UK e Rheinmetall in Germany. “To compete with other large manufacturing economies, Italian industry has a fgreat need for production diversification compared to traditional Made in Italy sectors, such as food and fashion, towards sectors with a higher technological content. However, our industrial policy currently finances hundreds of measures with few resources and is dispersed in a thousand ineffective rivulets”.
Un absolutely not an easy path for the Italian economy which is also suffering from increasingly evident critical issues starting from the labour market. “The main problem to be addressed is that of low wage levels and low productivity. We need to foster the conditions for aggregating companies, making them grow in size so that they can take on the challenge of innovation. The defense sector can be an opportunity to concentrate industrial policy investments in targeted sectors with a high need for technological research”.
