The ups and downs in crude oil prices and the disappointment with the trend in pre-Christmas sales are holding the financial markets. The new signs of recession in Europe are fueling hope in new expansionary measures by the ECB. But few expect QE to be launched at next Thursday's meeting.
The technical rebound of crude oil (+4,3% from the lows) benefited the markets of the producing countries: Sydney +0,4%. Positive ground also for Hong Kong (+0,33%) and Tokyo (+0,22%), which does not suffer from Moody's decision to downgrade Japan's rating from Aa 3 to A1 after the postponement of the VAT increase .
Wall Street down: Dow Jones -0,29%, S&P -0,68%. The Nasdaq was heavy (-1,34%), lingered by sales on tech stocks, the ones most affected by the disappointing trend in Christmas consumption. The Stock Exchanges of the Old Continent were also down yesterday, despite an improvement in the final: London -1,1%, Paris -0,2%, Frankfurt -0,1%, Madrid -1%.
In Europe, the sector with the greatest decline is that of banks (Stoxx -1,6%). The recovery of crude oil in the afternoon has very few positive effects for the Oil sector which records a loss of 0,9%. In Piazza Affari, the shares of the sector fell again: Eni lost 2,4%, Saipem -2,2%, Tenaris -2,4%.
In New York in the evening Exxon rose by 2,8%, Chevron +2,4%. The strong dependence of the list on the credit sector explains the sharp drop in Piazza Affari: the FtseMib index recorded a drop of 1,6%.
THE FED: WELCOME THE DROP IN OIL
Oil rebounds from the lows (63,7 dollars a barrel) also thanks to the news of the decline in requests for new licenses for the extraction of shale gas. But prices remain well below $70. Excellent news, underlined yesterday the two most influential collaborators of Janet Yellen: the vice president of the Fed Stanley Fischer and William Dudley president of the New York Fed. “The temporary impact on inflation doesn't worry me – said Fischer – The drop in energy costs will favor growth and consumption: the extra money will be spent, not saved”.
"I am convinced that prices will recover by 2015% in 2 despite the drop in crude oil - said Dudley instead - A crude oil price around 70 dollars is sufficient to support the development of new investments in the sector".
APPLE, THE YELLOW OF THE APPLE
Black day for American hi-tech, the first victim of the drop in sales on Black Friday (-11%). Amazon (-3,5%), Facebook (-3,2%) and Yahoo (-2,8%) are down. Leading the descent right from the start was Apple (-3,5%), which retreated from its all-time highs, marking a drop of over 6% at the start of trading. The sudden fall may have been caused by the note with which Morgan Stanley invited to lighten positions on Apple after last month's rally (+9%).
According to some traders, the sudden fall was not caused by the indications of the brokers but was due to a series of sales orders automatically triggered by algorithm-based investment systems.
TAXES WEIGH ON AZIMUTH, UNIPOL CONVERTS SAVINGS
“We are positive on European equities for 2015. Our 12-month target for the MSCI Europe Index is 1.560, with an 11% upside,” writes a Morgan Stanley report, confirming the overweight view on financials and cyclical stocks and underweight on defensive backs, while tlcs have been promoted to neutral. Among the positive surprises of next year, according to the broker, there will be Italy. For now, however, the performance of the financial sector does not justify so much optimism.
The banks are down sharply: Unicredit -2,3%, Intesa -3,1%, MontePaschi -2,3%. Banca Pop.Emilia falls by 4,3%, Pop.Milano -3,2%, Banco Popolare -3,7%Among the financials, Azimut falls -5% on the day in which a slope with the tax authorities is defined (118 million) for the period 2001/13. Mediobanca Securities reduced the recommendation from outperform to neutral and the target price from 23 to 20 euros, while Citigroup lowered the target price from 23 to 21 euros,
The European insurance sector was weak (-1,5% for the Stoxx index). Generals -0,6%. UnipolSai closed down by 2,6% after the decision to proceed with the mandatory conversion of category A and B savings shares into ordinary. UnipolSai savings B closed virtually unchanged, UnipolSai savings A fell by 12% . The capital of the parent company Unipol is also reorganised. Unipol ordinary shares fall 5%, Unipol preferred shares rose 1,9% after the announcement that they will be converted into ordinary shares.
FCA, SALES IN ITALY ACCELERATE
FCA rose by 1,69% to 10,20 euros before the data on November registrations in Italy communicated after the stock exchange was closed. Car registrations in Italy grew by 4,95% and those of FCA by 5,9%. The group's market share rose by 0,2% to 27,3%. Among the best-selling models, the Panda confirmed its first place and together with the 500 dominated the A segment.
In France (registrations -2,3% to 135.070 units) the sales of the Italian-American group grew by 2,3% to 5.006 units. In Spain, against a market increase of 17,4% to 65.122 units, those of the brand rose by 13,5% to 1.657 units.
YOOX, RECORD SALES IN THE USA. BUT THE TITLE GOES BACK
Good performance for the stocks most tied to sales in the dollar area. Luxottica goes up (+1,1), with Barclays which raised the target price from 43 to 48 euros, confirming the overweight rating. Autogrill also did well (+0,6%). Yoox instead closes in the red (-3%) despite two Christmas sales records. Last Friday, around 1,5 million users visited the group's 40 online stores.
Throughout the day, Yoox received an order every 3,5 seconds from customers around the world, with North America leading the way. The highest average receipt order placed from a PC was a $20 purchase of Saint Laurent handbags from Colorado. The biggest one coming from an iPhone was a $7.200 Dolce & Gabbana outfit from California.
S&P PROMOTES TELECOM. MEDIASET PREMIUM AT THE START
After a session spent almost entirely in positive territory, Telecom Italia closed with a loss of 1,7% at 0,8905 euro. It made a high at 0,9210 euros. Standard & Poor's has decided to improve Telecom Italia's creditworthiness outlook to stable from negative. The rating remains BB+.
Mediaset slows down (-1,5%). the new Mediaset Premium is operational as of today, to which the pay-television activities have been transferred in full. At the end of September, total assets exceeded 2 billion euros and operating profit for the last quarter of the year is estimated at 19 million.
