In the United States, the problems of the real estate and labor markets will keep demand subdued. Things are no better in Europe, where within a well-differentiated picture, the number of countries under attack is growing in Greece's wake. This is what emerges from a forecast report for the two-year period 2011-2012 on the economic situation at national and world level by Ref, a research and consultancy company in the economic-financial field.
The euro area is under the pressure of the measures to correct public budgets, which are holding back the recovery of domestic demand. The differences in the degree of competitiveness create a double scenario in which the debacle of the peripheral countries is observed alongside the rapid German recovery.
The forecasts for our country show a suffering Italy: the high risk premium is due not so much to fiscal policies, which have been attentive to budget balances for years, but rather to the lack of a minimum development perspective. Very low growth reduces the denominator of the debt/GDP ratio making it necessary to have an equally low level of deficit or even a balance in balance or in surplus, which is unsustainable from an economic point of view. The risk is that of a vicious circle, where a failing economy requires a higher primary surplus which in turn worsens the economy. In the absence of a credible reform agenda, the markets continue to give us no confidence in the sustainability of public debt. Businesses are hesitating in investments, the labor market is struggling: in these conditions, growth is still postponed.
Let's get to the numbers. As far as Italy is concerned, GDP growth is expected to be 0,7 percentage points both in 2011 and 2012, much lower estimates than those projected by the Government. Net debt fell by 4,1% in 2011 and by 3,2% in 2012 while the debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 120,6% in 2011 and to 120,8%.
