Due to the earthquake in Emilia, Prometeia's experts have revised their forecasts for the Italian economy in 2012 downwards. In the estimates of the research institute, which even before the earthquake spoke of a recession until the third quarter, a more serious decline than expected between April and September is now expected. The recovery will come only towards the end of the year, favored by the reconstruction activity. On average, in 2012 the contraction of GDP should be 2,2%.
As for the propensity to save, already declining, it should further decrease during the year. But the trend could later come to a halt, in correspondence with the albeit gradual improvement in disposable income. The recovery should start from next year, also thanks to the normalization of the financial markets.
According to Prometeia, in 2013 we could return to a growth rate of 1%. On the other hand, on the spread, the forecast is for a difference between the yields of BTPs and Bunds of 380 points at the end of 2012 and 350 at the end of 2013, an average of 70 points more than estimated in April.
