The study centre Promethea reviews the forecasts on the trend of the Italian GDP in 2022 have gone up, bringing them to +2,9% from +2,2% estimated in March. For the 2023, however, the operation is equal and opposite: you go down from +2,5 to +1,9%. On the basis of these data, however, both this year and next our country should grow more than the Eurozone average, for which a +2,6% is expected in 2022 and a +1,6% in 2023.
GDP Italy 2022 revised upwards: here's why
An upward revision of estimates may come as a surprise even as war continues to rage in Ukraine and inflation has reached levels not seen for 35 years. However, "performance higher than expected of activity in the first part of the year and the expectation that energy prices may have peaked lead us to improve the estimates for 2022”, Prometeia points out.
So things are better than we imagined? Not exactly. The analysts therefore they do not believe that there is a risk of a technical recession, because "in the summer months the contribution of tourism and services, as well as construction, should balance the fall in industry and consumption of goods".
Attention to the second half of the year
This effect, however, will disappear "in the autumn months, when a contraction in GDP may be recorded”. For these reasons, "the consequences of the high cost of living on families and the increases in energy tariffs on businesses will be felt in the second half of the year and in particular in 2023 - continues the study center - The cumulative growth over the two-year period will remain the same, but with a different temporal scan”, since “the effects of high energy costs on businesses and inflation on households are delayed compared to what we expected".
In 2023 a new recovery is possible
In 2023, therefore, the negative drag from 2022 will cut average growth to 1,9%, but it could start "a new take”, because “the activity will be supported by investments financed by PNRR and from the recovery of the propensity to consume. The treasure accumulated during the pandemic by families and businesses will be essential both to favor the maintenance of consumption despite the loss of purchasing power and to guarantee the resilience of businesses".
But inflation will make itself felt
In fact, the study center hypothesizes “that a price-wage run-up will not start: this implies that the supply shock, and therefore the transfer of income abroad, will be largely paid for by the employees".
In particular, "while many companies are able to pass on the increase in costs downstream, fixed income families are experiencing a very strong reduction in their real income - concludes Prometeia - Just think that an inflation of 8% for an entire year would be equivalent to loss of purchasing power of one month's salary".
