At the dawn of tonight's big televised duel, François Hollande's lead in the polls is still clear. According to the BVA, the socialist candidate garners 53,5% of the votes, against 46,5% for outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy. However, like a worm, he is slowly catching up, vote by vote, consensus by consensus, a disadvantage that 10 days ago was still 9-10 points behind.
Much of the work was done in the super meeting in Toulouse, where that old fox Sarko launched the decisive siege of Marine Le Pen's fort: despite the fact that the leader of the Front National has not given voting instructions to her voters (and you declared that you will vote blank), it would seem that your package of votes, almost 18% in the first round, is being won over by the ultra-patriotic speeches of the Gaullist candidate.
Again according to BVA, in fact, Sarkozy is reportedly benefiting from 57% of far-right voter intentions, i.e. 10 percentage points more than last week. Only 21% would instead go to Hollande (14% according to Ipsos), even if the research institute still judges this transfer of consensus in favor of Sarkozy as "too weak", who, calculator in hand, would still not be able to sit down other five years at the Elysée.
On the other hand, Bayrou's legacy is in perfect balance, as repeatedly predicted by the French press and television. As a good centrist father of a family, the MoDem leader would be equally distributing his legacy: 36% to Sarkozy, 36% to Hollande, 28% undecided. Even if Bva suspects that in the end there will be a little more who at the last crossroads will take the road to the right.
In all likelihood it will be mainly them, the voters of François Bayrou (9% of the total number of voters in the first round), who will tune in tonight on TF1 or France 2 and prick up their ears waiting to hear that detail that could make the difference. Bva is also certain of this, according to which 20% of centrist voters (compared to 11% overall) said they could change their choice based on the televised duel between the two candidates in the runoff.
Even if, historically, the televised face-to-face, a typical French appointment in the last week before the second round since 1974, has never really shifted the balance. Although it has been the key moment of the electoral campaign for the runoff for almost 40 years, it has never proved to be significantly relevant to the final outcome. Indeed, according to French analysts both Mittérrand in 1981 and '88 and Chirac in 1995 and 2002 maintained the same advantage after the televised clash with their respective opponents which they had in the polls on the eve and which they then confirmed after the polls were concluded. Perhaps Sarkozy's television appearance benefited a little more precisely in 2007, but mostly due to the demerit of Segolène Royal who assumed an attitude judged by many to be too aggressive.
However, according to political scientists from beyond the Alps, there is talk approximately 200-300 thousand votes moved thanks to the TV duel. Nothing to decide the election of a President of the Republic, therefore. Not even the very tight one of '74, which saw Giscard d'Estaing prevail over Mittérrand by just 424 votes. "Rather than to make him change his opinion, the debate comforts the voter in his choice", says Christian Delporte, a specialist in political communication, in Le Figaro.
However, this between Sarkozy and Hollande should give some interesting starting points, given that the far-right electorate is at stake to woo, which will lead both candidates to distort their nature and to do tightrope. Imagine in front of the TV a French farmer fed up with Europe for years and elector of the FN who will hear Sarkozy (or why not Hollande) say: France first of all, we will protect the French from the crisis, from globalization and from immigration. Will he believe it or will he feel fooled?
