Having now ascertained, three days before the first round of the French presidential elections, that the challenge will be between Sarkozy and Hollande, with the second favorite in the polls for the second Sunday's run-off, two questions remain. First of all, the inevitable debate on the vote - more or less decisive - of the undecided (to date it is estimated that one in four French people has not yet chosen); then, a perhaps premature but dutiful look at the "after-elections", with the legislative session of 10 and 17 June which gives rise to the hypothesis of a "cohabitation", a typically transalpine governmental formula, which occurred several times in the past due to the separation between the election of the president and that of Parliament.
But let's go in order: the poll book, first of all. According to the latest, created by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI, continues the situation of substantial equality between the outgoing president and the socialist challenger, paired with 27,5% of voting intentions. Third place still resists, despite Sarkozy's repeated appeals (“voting for the Front National is a favor to Hollande”), Marine Le Pen with 16% representing deep France, hostile to immigration and Europe, the whose disappointment is growing more and more (and according to someone could hide a much higher percentage than that 16%). On the other hand, the Mélenchon phenomenon is down (13%), while Bayrou's moderate proposal has never taken offalways stopped at 10%. As regards the second round, the gap between Hollande and Sarkozy is becoming ever deeper: after the recovery of the leader UMP, which culminated on 4 April with a gap reduced to 53%-47%, the gap now sees no less than 10 percentage points between the two (55-45).
Other interesting data also emerge from the survey, such as for example that all age categories (except over 65) and all occupational categories (except self-employed and retired) prefer the candidate of the left. The percentages of approval are particularly high among young people aged 18-24 (64%) and civil servants (66%). Interesting to see then how it is precisely the middle class that creates the greatest advantage for Hollande: while the "rich" appreciate both contenders (50-50), and the "poor" opt for the 54% socialist, citizens with incomes between 2 and 4 euros a month push the ex-husband of former candidate Segolène Royal at 56%.
However, just from the survey also emerges a ever-growing number of undecided: compared to the 2007 round, when in the end there were 16% abstentions, it is now estimated that between 24 and 26% of French people have not yet chosen and may not even vote. There are between 6 and 8 million, a considerable number of people, who could still - on paper - upset the balance. Especially if you think that in 2007, 14% of voters said they only made their choice inside the voting booth!
According to the latest hints, this figure could be useful to Sarkozy: when one is undecided, one knows, one prefers not to leave the certain for the uncertain and the last tenant of the Elysée, even if he is guilty of various faults and not a few gaffes, he was the president of all the French until a month ago. However, according to an investigation by Le Figaro, they appreciated his electoral campaign much more than that of his rivals: 34% think that despite everything Sarko has led the most energetic and convincing campaign of all the candidates, followed with 31% by the surprise Mélenchon. Anonymous Hollande (13%), bad Bayrou (2%).
In any case, whether the winner is Sarko or Hollande, the "after" already holds the table. Looking beyond the immediate, providing the key to understanding the political moment in Paris, is Alain Marleix, strategist of the right-wing candidate and specialist for 30 years of the "redécoupage electoral", i.e. the analysis, constituency by constituency, of the electoral balance.
The "old fox" of transalpine politics first of all recalled how even Mittérrand, who in 1988 had swept the presidential elections against Chirac, did not then obtain an absolute majority in the Chamber: "Voters are asked to go to the polls 4 times (including the presidential ballot, ed.) within two months essentially always voting for the same thing, but the French don't like to put all their eggs in one basket", warns Marleix.
The oddity, however, is that the warning is not addressed to the favorite Hollande or, more generally, to both suitors. Marleix addresses his warning directly to Sarkozy, thus taking for granted his confirmation as president: instead of warning him of the danger-debacle of next Sunday (or in 15 days, little changes), he warns him of a possible cohabitation with a majority of left which, this being the case, would even be a luxury for the UMP leader. In order to sit another five years at the Elysée, he would probably also sign. But one thing is certain: Marleix, already architect of the Chirac triumph in 1995 and proponent of the "sarkozyst" transition of the majority party, has almost never made a prediction wrong.
