Another tile on Portugal. After the political vicissitudes experienced in 2015 and resolved with the inauguration of the socialist government led by Antonio Costa and supported by the communists of Bloco de Esquerda, the political formation corresponding to the Spanish Podemos party, many believed that the "alarm" had subsided .
Instead, Lisbon is back under the magnifying glass of international control bodies. The reason is obvious: the budgetary targets set for 2015 have not been achieved and a contingency plan will be needed for 2016. This is supported by the International Monetary Fund which, in the context of a report published today, forecasts a deficit/GDP ratio of 2,9% for Portugal in 2016, after the 4,4% achieved in 2015, a percentage years away. light from the expected target, set at 2,7%.
The IMF experts therefore underlined "the need for an emergency plan to reach the 2016 deficit target, to face fiscal risks and maintain market confidence".
To date, the yield difference between Portuguese ten-year bonds and German Bunds is equal to 2,6 percentage points, while in 2015, despite the favorable economic situation, Lisbon grew by only 1,5% and expects to this year and for 2017 an increase of 1,4 and 1,3% respectively due to the decrease in impulses deriving from consumption.
We recall that last January the Troika technicians returned to Lisbon, despite the aid plan having ended in the summer of 2015. Concerned by the trend of the deficit, public debt and the weakness of the banking system, the ECB inspectors , the Monetary Fund and the European Commission presented themselves in the Portuguese capital with a package of 18 requests aimed at consolidating public finances.
